Malaysia's Post 13th GE: Issues, Risks & the Myth of Transformation

Khoo Kay Peng

I was asked the same question over and over again by my peers, clients and the media. I did not give an immediate answer because it is precise a "post-GE' assessment. There is a need to review and analyze the responses from various stakeholders, parties and observers. There is necessity to feel  the pulse of the nation before a valid and fact-based observation can be made.

There are a few themes which emerged from the 13th GE. Some of the issues and repercussions are going to be highlighted in point form. Firstly, I would like to highlight the key issues:

1) Division: It is quite clear now that the 13th GE has created more divisions than common grounds. The is more profound political difference between the two coalitions - PR and BN - and their supporters. The whole political discourse has become either black or white. It is either you are with us or you are against us. It was compounded by the fact that the Opposition PR had expected to win the GE but was not successful. On the other hand, the BN regime had singled out the low Chinese support as the main reason for their less than stunning victory.

Hence, the two coalitions are caught in an awkward situation. PR had blamed the electoral system and the alleged frauds as the main reason for their unsuccessful campaign. BN had blamed the Chinese community for their predicament. Both cannot accept anything than an absolute victory at the polls.

Continuous post GE bickering over the election results, now preceded by the petitions, is going to drag on for months to come and is going drag in a lot of their supporters and members as well. This is the first sign of division.

Worse case scenario, the division might even expanded to include the rural-urban divide, ethnicity (Malay versus Non-Malay), alternative versus mainstream media and religion (remotely). On the urban-rural divide, the dialogue has involved both the communitarian and morality dimension. It has become socially unthinkable to take a centrist position without being berated by one's social circle. Supporters from both coalitions have taken to peer pressure and communitarianism to press for support and compliance from their friends, colleagues and peers. This is often coated with both communal and morality arguments.

2) Credibility Crisis. The newly minted PR has won almost 90% of all urban seats, leaving BN with both semi-rural and rural seats. However, any discourse concerning the nation is often dictated by the urbanites. The emergence of the online social tools such as the Twitter, Facebook, Blog, Youtube etc. the dominant discourse is not one the ruling regime will cherish.

On the polling night itself, after news that the BN had successfully formed the Federal government, the public discourse on the Internet had established its foothold, intent, shape and agenda. The BN regime and the institutions and processes created by its regime were going to be discredited so that the PR would gain immediate advantage and influence over the minds of the urbanites.

Even with a comfortable mandate and majority, the BN is going to find a hard time restoring its credibility if it cannot influence the discourse. BN might continue to rule but the PR would continue to hold on to their influence and electoral gains and hopefully to build on them.

What is worse and damaging is the credibility crisis has grown internationally. Supporters and leaders of the PR coalition are taking their grouses to the UN, the White House, the UK government, Australia and other international platforms. A number of fraud allegations were made online and they were quickly replicated and shared out by the followers.

The coalition led by de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim was quick to respond with the "Blackout 505" rallies throughout the country to blame the coalition's defeat on electoral fraud and a partial Election Commission. Soon, the fault lines expanded to include the First Past the Post electoral system, gerrymandering, imbalanced rural-urban voters ratio, indelible ink and weightage and others. Calls were made by the pro-PR NGOs for the EC heads to step down.

All these allegations were made before the election petitions were filed and up till today there was no incriminating evidence on illegal Bangladeshi voters or actual blackout at the counting centre. Nonetheless, the intention was clear - to ruin the credibility of the victor in the elections and to cast doubts on the electoral system, agency, players and rules. Here, the PR has successfully taken a higher moral ground and has won the perception war on the back of the newly elected government's credibility.

It is important to note that because the discourse was dominated by largely the pro-PR urbanites, the allegations made and rumours spread by the PR to gain electoral advantage during the campaign period were never challenged or questioned or brought up in any of the civil discourse.

To make the matter worse, the BN had actually committed various money related offenses during the campaign period. Most of them were committed via their 'supporters' and not directly through their candidates or parties. The electoral abuses are going to haunt the regime in the coming days and even leading up to the next GE.

3) Directionless. We can positively expect the political bickering to continue in the coming months if not years leading to the next GE. PR has made impressive gains not only in the Parliament but also in most of the state assemblies. While we rejoice at the birth of the two party system, the real two party system can only be beneficial if both coalitions know when to bicker and when to cooperate. Perpetual bickering is the most likely scenario here. Mutual competition and opposition is going to happen on all policy decisions and this can be really distractive to governance.

On the aspect of economic management, there is a need for a bipartisan cooperation since the BN has control over finances and the Federal administration while PR is leading the two biggest economies in Malaysia; Penang and Selangor. On economic competitiveness, the country must find viable solutions to a vast array of issues e.g. finding new economic frontiers, fostering a vibrant economy to attract more local and foreign investments, create more valued added jobs, solving the income bottlenecks, moving up the value chain and technology adoption, regional positioning and strengthening trade.

A number of these issues cannot be addressed without ironing out the political differences between these two coalitions. The political risk posed by the bickering coalitions is enough to turn off any potential mid-to-long term commitment and investment in the country.

There is a danger of the BN government being selective in its economic direction and stimulation. Some hawkish leaders in UMNO are already calling for a tit-for-tat action against the Chinese community for rejecting their hand of "friendship". Utusan Malaysia, the conservative UMNO mouthpiece, has been publishing provocative headlines on the Chinese voters' snub against the UMNO-led ruling regime. The same leaders have suggested to the Najib administration to focus more and reward the Malay, Indian and Sabah and Sarawak natives for supporting the regime.

If Najib's submits his administration to the internal pressure, it might spells more instability for the private sector investment in Malaysia. There is going to be a greater outflow of funds and talents overseas.

There is little to differentiate the economic model of both PR and BN; although the former claimed to be more credible and accountable. However, there has not been any major institutional or systemic transformation in both Selangor and Penang over the last 5 years. During the 13th GE, both coalitions had stuck to the populist policy by promising more grants and subsidies to the lower income group.

There was little mention of transformation, reformation and overhaul of the socio-economic model and governance. There was no mention of their respective foreign policy direction. Hence, it is suffice to note that the socio-economic model and the foreign policy direction would not be undergoing any major transformation apart from the check-and-balance e.g. open tender, counter wastage and corruption proposed by the PR.

4) Myth of Transformation. It would be foolhardy to expect any major transformation or reforms after the 13th GE. In fact, the country is facing a risk of more hardline executive decisions, legislations (e.g. control of the Internet, sedition law, treason etc) and enforcement from the administration. In Malaysia, any political reform or liberalization is interpreted by the conservatives as a sign of weakness and losing its political influence.We might actually face a government that is less wiling to reach out to its perceived foes especially those who did not support the regime in the last GE.

Reformists in the BN might face a tougher time trying to convince the conservatives that more reforms are going to win back the urban support. It is left to be seen if the conservatives are going to call for a change of leadership in UMNO. There was a suggestion that UMNO needs a stronger and decisive leader. The period of Mahathirism is still being looked at with envy by his successors. Dr M had consistently delivered a 2/3 majority for the coalition throughout his 22-year tenure as the President/Prime Minister.

All programmes and measures that are seen to be accommodative to the Chinese community might be reviewed if the conservatives have their way. Just a moment ago, the Minister of Tourism Nazri Aziz has threatened a law suit against a Chinese school, SRJKC Chin Woo, for occupying a piece of land belonged to the ministry. A lack of representation in the Cabinet means the community is going to face a tougher time in bringing such issue to the Cabinet to be reviewed.

On the PR side,  their supporters have been berating any criticism against the coalition. They argued that it is still too early to press the coalition on governance and policy decision. They pointed out that the focus should be on the regime change. Since the GE, the coalition has yet to lay down their expectations and key targets for the 3 key states. PR especially the PKR is expected to go through some turbulence in their party polls this year.

For now, it is fair to say that PR's focus is going to be on efforts to continue to discredit the BN and to destabilize UMNO. The dynamics are quite substantial. It was reported that Gua Musang MP and UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh is again pitting himself as a PM candidate. It might be the case that the proposition was announced by his hardcore supporters rather than the man himself. On the PR side, it is highly unlikely that it is going to be anyone else but Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar is the DAP's choice and the latter holds the most Parliamentary seats among the 3 component parties. Any dissenters from UMNO and its alliance would prefer to align themselves to Muhyiddin Yasin rather than Ku Li.

Horse trading, bickering and party elections are going to take up the entire 2013. Transformation, for the nation and for the common good of all, is going to take a temporary backseat - hopefully not too long a wait.

5) Whither Reforms. It is time for PR leaders and elected representatives to realise that any change to the electoral system, Election Commission, federal agencies and re-delineation can only materialize if there is a bipartisan effort and common agreement. But who is going to take a lead and who would be allowed to lead? In the case of Malaysia, if BN give in to any of PR demand it would be seen as a sign of weakness vice versa. Hence, the DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang had made a number of good suggestions to reform the political system but would fall short at taking the first step to implement it at the DAP controlled state assembly.

It is unfortunate that both sides lacked leaders and elected representatives who could reach out to the other side and at the same time would enjoy the trust of their own party/coalition. It is a fact that both sides would have to sit down to identify and agree on the terms of governance and reforms needed to allow the two coalitions to cooperate in the parliament and state assemblies. Both coalitions cannot afford for the country to fail due to their excessive and unending bickering and frictions. Elections are not supposed to be a competition to celebrate the winners only. It is about the act to elect the people we can entrust to run the country on our behalf.

It is becoming quite difficult to appoint or identify any third party to help coordinate any bipartisan effort. The civil society is devoid of any credible, respectable and sincere centrists who could gain the trust of both coalitions to play the role of moderators. The blame game, peer pressure and overzealous partisanship have often come in between these centrists and the politicians. Most of the civil society activists had voluntarily or pressured to take side. The whole situation has contributed to a lack of political literacy in the country.

In summary, it is going to be a tough time for the nation to identify and chart its direction within the current political situation. For Malaysia to move forward, its citizens would have to take emotion out of the whole political discourse and start to understand the basic role of the electoral process, the real meaning of democracy and check-and-balance. Politicians need to understand that winning is not the only thing in an electoral process.

There are more important questions to answer: Is this nation going to become a better one in the next five years? If yes, what can I do for my nation? How?