NAJIB TREMBLES as Dr M prepares to strike: Win at K Besut no guarantee for Umno presidency

Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin is quite right when he said that the outcome of the Kuala Besut by-election will have a decisive impact on Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is also the UMNO president.

The outcome of the by-election will trigger reactions in the party at the topmost levels, thus Najib must make sure that UMNO wins. This is a fact that few of the UMNO warlords would deny. Party sec-gen Tengku Adnan is one of the few who doubt that the by-election will have any impact on the UMNO presidential poll at all. But a question mark hangs over whether Ku Nan is really expressing what he truly thinks or is just being naive and trying to cover up for Najib.

Ahmad Said-Idris Jusoh feud smoke-screen

The situation in Kuala Besut is a little bit complicated because of the ongoing feud between current chief minister Ahmad Said and previous chief minister Idris Jusoh. Idris, who was forced out from his little 'fiefdom' and given the post of a junior minister in the federal Cabinet, now wants Ahmad to bite the dust.

Despite being appointed Education and Higher Learning Minister II, Idris is not happy because the present position is of little importance and is just to provide a place for him to keep busy and not create any trouble for Najib, especially in Terengganu.

UMNO insiders say Najib must have given Idris a stern warning to not sabotage Tengku Zaihan, the UMNO candidate in Kuala Besut. However, to achieve his ambition, few find it hard to believe Idris will not go whispering around asking the people to vote for the PAS candidate.

Therefore even after PAS vice president Husam Musa announced that PAS would not form the state government even if it wins this seat, it makes no difference to Najib and Idris; both men have their own agendas.

PAS misstep

Fortunately for Najib, PAS has also made a clumsy misstep and this has been seized on by BN to tip the scales back in their favor. Azlan Yusof, the PAS candidate, has the potential, but he is more of a businessman than a politician. What mistake did Azlan make? Well, he went on video admitting that he is more interested in his business than to serve the people in the constituency.

So far, UMNO leaders have shown more interest in this by-election than Pakatan Rakyat leaders who have been busy at Parliament and attending the numerous court cases UMNO has thrown at them.The Ramadan fasting month is another factor, with certain PAS leaders advising their PKR and DAP colleagues to 'go slow' so as not to offend Mulsim sensitivities in this small remote town.

But for sure, Pakatan leaders are hoping that with a 16:16 result, the state assembly would be dissolved and a statewide election be called. This would give them the chance to take over the state government, a feat they came near to achieving but for the unexpected outcome at several dubious seats in which they have now claimed electoral fraud.

Winning K Besut not a guarantee for Najib

Now, let's get back to the main thread of the story. Lurking behind the shadows is former UMNO president and premier Mahathir Mohamad. He is watching the by-election like a hawk. UMNO insiders say he will decide after the by-election results are announced whom he will support to be the UMNO president in the coming party polls.

And lest, Najib thinks a win at Kuala Besut will guarantee Mahathir will support him, he is wrong. Mahathir, now 88, has never been someone anyone could predict. He is a law unto himself and even if Najib wins, he can still decide to support Najib's deputy Muhyiddin Yassin for the UMNO top post.

Malay rights group PERKASA, which many believe to be Mahathir's privately-funded rabble-rousing unit, has decided to be neutral in the Kuala Besut contest since both candidates are Malays and Mahathir has asked that there be no interference so that he can gauge the outcome based on the voters' sentiment and more importantly, how the UMNO leaders and warlords conduct themselves during this by-election.

Watching like a hawk waiting to strike

Needless to say, Najib is worried and there are stories going around that he is having sleepness nights. While he would like to know his true strength and test if he can for once win an election without having to cheat and bribe voters, there is simply too much at stake. Hence the slew of election goodies, which the latest count by the BERSIH movement for free and fair polls has put at RM337 million or RM19,000 per voter in the small constituency of just over 17,000 voters.

Of course, this huge sum has not escaped Mahathir's notice and is bound to increase his scorn for Najib. Nonetheless, Mahathir has always been a pragmatist. He won't shut the door on Najib just because of this outlandish bribe and may even decide to let Najib continue as president and prime minister so long as he is satisfied that there is a future for his son Mukhriz in the topmost hierarchy of UMNO.

So, like everyone else, Mahathir is waiting for the outcome of the Kuala Besut by-election. Not so much to decide who to support. Chances are the wily grand old man of UMNO politics has already made up his mind. He is just waiting for Kuala Besut to be safely over before making his move.

And Najib would do well to be careful and not assume that the Umno polls is already his if he wins the Kuala Besut ballot. In fact many seasoned observers have warned the end of the Kuala Besut by-election may spell the beginning of the end for Najib himself.

Malaysia Chronicle