FUMBLING & BUMBLING AWAY, PAS & HADI WILL LOSE KELANTAN

It’s never too late for PAS to reconsider their political stand and to be part of Pakatan Harapan (PH) – the newly-minted Opposition coalition. After all, PH has not precluded PAS as a political partner and has even offered the party to come into its fold for the purpose of buttressing the Opposition.

PH has without qualm, but convivially welcomed PAS into the coalition and to work under a common policy framework. It’s indeed a judicious political strategy - according to some political analysts - that PAS be lured into the Opposition coalition even when the former is adamant that they want to be on their own.

Nevertheless, there can always be a leeway for PAS to seam up with the new coalition when brooding over their chances in Kelantan in the next general election. PAS may lose Kelantan, as the party is now split and if contests for seats were to be three-cornered.

PAS willing to lose Kelantan

PAS, indisputably, cannot make huge waves in an election if the party is to be on its own – even in the few Malay-majority states. PAS may yearn to contest in all seats in the next general election for two possible reasons - believing that the voters will support the party or, to a few irrational zealots in the party “to teach” DAP and PAN a political lesson. In both cases, these imprudent approaches are not going to benefit PAS in any way. PAS can only see many of their candidates vanquished in the contests.

However, if such were PAS’ “line of attack” in politics, three-cornered fights would be there in the offing. The outcome will unquestionably favour the Barisan Nasional (BN). In the case of a tit-for-tat strategy adopted by PH then this can also affect Kelantan where there will be three-cornered contests. Is PAS willing to lose Kelantan – the only state that they have kept going for long?

Umno has played their nifty political card, especially on the Hudud issue and a divided PAS may now see Kelantan under PAS fall in the next general election. There are, nonetheless, PAS supporters in Kelantan who look beyond PAS in politics. They are looking at a bigger picture. The era of revered Tuan Guru Nik Aziz has past. The latest floods that ravished many parts of Kelantan have made many Kelantanese become sullen and poorer. There is somewhat not much economic headway in the state under the present PAS leadership.

The voters are seeing no substantial or feasible measures adopted by the PAS-led Kelantan to handle the many ill-fated situations afflicting the state. The state thus had to resort to the Federal Government for assistance. Even DAP came to their aid under the Impian Kelantan Project that saw some tangible efforts and labours to help many flood-affected families in the state. Many Kelantanese are beginning to see the ineptness of the state government in time of disaster and also in bringing about economic growth to the state. They now seem to be more pragmatic and believe that that religious orations, rallies and searing political speeches alone are not going to help improve their livelihood.

Disappointed supporters

This group of Kelantanese will want to cherish a coalition of parties – a democratic political collectivism - and see to it that only a rock-solid coalition of parties in the Opposition will make any major impact in an election against the BN. They sense that only a change in Putrajaya will see some major economic changes in Kelantan. They are cognizant of the fact that without a resilient coalition to go against BN at the state and national levels nothing much can be extended to Kelantan in terms of economic succour. These are the disenchanted supporters who will give their support to Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) and yet have the hunch that the Opposition will turn out to be a cohesive coalition of parties.

Purportedly, the majority of PAN’s members now are from Kelantan - according to the party’s President. Kelantan now has also lost two members of parliament – one to PAN and one to PKR. Many more are likely to swing in to PAN. Outwardly, PAN is seen leaping forward - the ongoing efficacious roadshows are some indication that the party will make an impression in the country’s political sight. PAS, of course cannot afford to lose many more of their members to PAN if the party wants to be seen as fitting and relevant to retain Kelantan.

What is more, with PAS setting their candidates in all seats in the next general election will see PAS, Umno and MCA pitting their candidates against PAS in Kelantan. Votes will be split and chances for PAS to retain Kelantan will possibly be very slim. PAS has some prospects to win in states like Terengganu and Kedah where the majority population are ethnic Malay. But when votes are split in these states, PAS will not accomplish much.

In the last general election (2013), PAS under the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) flagship won 9 parliamentary seats and 33 state seats in Kelantan. For the parliamentary seats PR won 9 with a decrease of 2 from the previous general election. BN won 5 with an increase of 3 from the previous general election. For the state seats PR won 33 with a decrease of 5 from the previous general election. BN won 12 with an increase of 5.

The drift here evidently shows a decrease of seats for PAS/PR and an increase of seats for Umno/BN in the 2013 general election. PAS should also be mindful that in at least three seats the vote margin (majority) between the victorious and the vanquished were relatively small – Bachok (201), Ketereh (974) and Macang (805). A fissured PAS will see more seats falling into this state.

Notably, the late Tuan Guru Nik Aziz – the party’s spiritual leader – had leadership charisma and this had a constructive influence on PAS and Kelantan has remained under PAS rule since 1999. This appeal of the late Tuan Guru is regrettably absent in the present Kelantan leadership, or for that matter in the overall PAS’ stewardship. The perception of voters now is that PAS’ supporters are higgledy-piggledy strewn into doldrums all due to the uninspiring leadership.

PAS will have a slim chance

And now with PR dissolved, the dawn of PH, a fragmented PAS and the prospect of seeing three-cornered contests PAS can be the underdog in Kelantan in the next general election. What more, PAS will also have a slim chance in other states they hope to capture – Kedah and Terengganu. The prospect of having reduced parliamentary seats is also anticipatable for the party.

It’s politically immature for PAS to blame DAP for the PR breakup. Also, pandering to the religious enthusiasts, deriding the progressive elements that have left the party and inscribing DAP as a party bereft of political centrism will make PAS none the wiser. In reality, DAP of today has won over many Muslim supporters. There are Malays, Indians and Others who have been supporting DAP all this while due to its exemplariness in governance as shown in the state they now control - Penang. The support for DAP is increasing and their candidates will not face much obstacles contesting in all its incumbent seats. They may even scout for a few more seats to contest in the urban and semi-urban areas.

No doubt, many PAS members or Malays had supported DAP candidates in the last general election in the spirit of PR, but then many DAP members – Chinese, Indians, Malays and Others had also supported PAS’ candidates. In fact, on the whole, many Chinese voters had supported PAS in the spirit of comradeship then and the party won 15 state seats in Selangor.

Never too late for PAS

The ethnic race set-up of electorate between Kelantan and Selangor or Penang are poles apart – a major determinant in Malaysian politics. No DAP candidate had contested in any of the seats in Kelantan in the 2013 general election. Being minority, the Chinese or Indian factor has never been an issue here. It was in the main a one-to-one close contest among Malay candidates from PAS, Umno and PKR. This will remain status quo, by any reckoning, in the next general election.

Now with PAN entering the political fray, there can possibly be three-cornered contests – PAS versus PAN or PKR versus Umno/BN. The votes will be split and this will be to Umno/BN’s gain. With this political manoeuvre, Umno/BN will triumph in Kelantan. Terengganu and Kedah – the three states PAS has any chance of netting – will also be delivered to Umno/BN on the platter.

Ostensibly, PAS has no place in Umno/BN. To rope in fumbling PAS is of no political advantage to Umno/BN. In fact, it will be strategically conceivable and beneficial for Umno/BN if PAS could be marshalled into contesting against DAP, PAN and PKR. Umno/BN would then triumph against all others.

It’s never too late thus for PAS to relook into their current stance and begin sorting out for an amicable disposition, with the hope that the party will work in partnership with PH. PAS will then remain relevant and will also be able to retain Kelantan, as such. - MAILBAG