MALAYSIANS LOSE FAITH IN PANDIKAR, NAJIB'S 'STOOGE' SPEAKER, FEAR RINGGIT MAY HIT 4.80

As the last Parliament session of the year kicks into motion, the question most people are asking is whether or not Dato Seri Najib will remain Prime Minister come the end of the session in early December.

The question of a no-confidence vote has been getting a lot of attention in the media. As Speaker of the Parliament, Tan Sri Pandikar has exercised his powers in delaying the vote.

At first he mentioned that it could not happen because private motions require a 2 weeks notice period. When it was pointed out that previous bills were tabled without this particular requirement, he backtracked and said that he needed proof of those supporting the motion before it could be tabled.

This was really surprising. Never before do you need proof before you table a motion. You table a motion and if the House votes it, then it is passed. The Speaker is not the judge of whether the motion passes or does not pass. That is the right given to the duly elected Members of Parliament.

Unfortunately, the Speaker is losing credibility because of the constant back tracking. If Najib is confident of the support, then he will let the motion be brought to the floor. Settle the issue once and for all.

By all this delaying and excuses, the Speaker is giving the perception that Najib is not confident that he will survive a test of no confidence.

This itself is a strange development. Many other Prime Ministers routinely face down the gauntlet of a vote of no confidence. Why should Dato Seri Najib be afraid? Settle the issue and once for all.

That itself belies a weakness or a strength in Dato Seri Najib, depending on the way you see it. Dato Seri Najib is the play safe of all play safe politicians. His calculus is always - why risk the position?

Tan sri pandikar amin mulia

But this in itself does not really alleviate the pressure on Dato Seri Najib, not to say that the pressure has suddenly forced him to make some critical mistake politically speaking. He is still PM, his Deputy is a loyalist and the Cabinet is keeping quiet. All hunky dory?

So it seems one word in poker - check. Dato Seri Najib - check. UMNO MP rebels - check. Tan Sri Muhiyiddin - check. Tengku Razaleigh - check. All check.

In this round, Najib is the winner because all the players check and no one wants to show hand. He remains as PM, his detractors remain his detractors, and nobody shows hand.

So we look to the next round, beginning on Friday morning.That is budget time.

CONTINUATION ONE

There are two things Dato Seri Najib requires on Friday.

Firstly, to get the budget passed. I don't see any signal to indicate that 30 BN MPs will suddenly decide to switch sides and vote down the budget. So he wins on Friday, and the rebellion gets dealt a blow.

Secondly, how will the currency markets react? On one side, a budget passed would remove some immediate uncertainty on the Ringgit. Ringgit should rally - providing yet another breather.

So on Monday morning, Dato Seri Najib's position is strengthened.

I think the only precondition sufficient for Dato Seri Najib's position to be under serious threat is if the Ringgit touches RM 4.60 to the USD. And judging that there seems to be some near term relief, we can only conclude that DSN looks safe for the next month.

If this particular synopsis disappoints you, all I can say is go out and have great bowl of Laksa Utara and go to sleep.

Solution for much of life heart aches caused by politicians!

The Picture is for my own enjoyment :-)

CONTINUATION TWO

In continuation one, the only thing that I am unsure about is whether the currency actually rallies after the budget is passed. Perhaps the price has less to do with uncertainty about Najib's position versus uncertainty about the deficit.

In Continuation Two, the deficit looks slightly bad - not too bad, but slightly bad. I doubt Najib would want to table a "bad deficit heavy" budget at the first go. He can always table one budget first and then later on use the supplementary budget.

Maybe, the currency market does not like that and the Ringgit goes to RM 4.50 by Friday?

It looks really unlikely, but things could happen.

Then the rebellion gets a boost on Monday.

Aha , as you may have correctly understood, the fate of Dato Seri Najib rests more on the Ringgit than on the Speaker or on the BN politicians. Ringgit above RM 4.80 and Najib will be ousted. Ringgit below RM 4.80, and Najib remains as PM.

Easy isn't it? - http://spin-kings.blogspot.my/