Beyond the no-confidence vote

The opposition's golden opportunity lies not in the no-confidence motion, but with Malay electorate.

COMMENT

And so, for the first time ever in Malaysian history, a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister of the country will be on Parliament’s agenda. There are fears that we may not get to hear the motion before the end of this Parliament session, but on it ride the hopes of many Malaysians, including former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who has led a year-long crusade to oust Najib.

In recent weeks, however, proponents of the no-confidence motion have predicted that it would not pass a vote. Given that the opposition is some 25 seats short of a majority and that Umno shows no sign of breaking ranks despite the defection of Saifuddin Abdullah, it is likely many of the rakyat have come to that same conclusion. The motion would thus largely be a symbolic one even should it be tabled and put to a vote in this session.

Najib is in a strong position. For better or worse, BN will not break ranks for a no-confidence motion bar a massive scandal that even the PM could not sweep under the rug, and who knows what the odds are of that happening. He will survive the test, and we will return to our regularly scheduled programming, accentuated now and then by the almost obligatory reports of someone going too far in Parliament in the midst of heated debate.

However, there are some numbers that may define the conversation heading into election season. A recent Merdeka Centre report found that Malay support for the Prime Minister has dropped from 52% in January to 31%, possibly the first time a Malay leader has well and truly lost the approval of the Malay electorate. That’s a phenomenon just as unprecedented as the no-confidence vote.

The findings will probably lead to Malay issues being a core element of the budget, and possibly more inflammatory rhetoric, unless Umno also comes to terms with the findings that show Malaysians are beginning to move past racial lines when it comes to politics. But the ultimate effect of these findings will be the race to GE14.

Malay voters now largely disapprove of Najib, at least in the Merdeka Centre’s findings, and the opposition will race with Umno to gain their trust in hopes of securing the next GE. The opposition must keep itself aware of the Malay agenda and ensure that it plans accordingly, while Umno must listen closer to sentiments at the grassroots and make visible moves to soothe their ruffled feathers.

Najib is at his strongest politically, but possibly at his weakest on the ground, among the very people whom he relies upon to elect him and his party into power. The opposition parties must realise that the golden opportunity lies before them if they can overcome their squabbling. Otherwise, they’ll miss the window through which they should be shooting into power.

The Malays are about to be kingmakers again, at least on the peninsula.