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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

WHY IS RINGGIT FALLING DESPITE NAJIB’S TRUMPETED CHINA DEALS? MALAYSIA’S ECONOMY A GHOST SHIP WITH NO CAPTAIN AT THE WHEELS

Bank Negara announced the third quarter GDP growth at a better-than-expected rate of 4.3%, but Malaysians have remained unimpressed, thanks to drastic fall of the local currency.
As a matter of fact, the public have not only grown indifferent to the GDP numbers but also a host of other figures, such as the 1.5% inflation rate for September which many know is not true, given the skyrocketing goods prices.
The ringgit plummeted to an intraday low of 4.5395 to the greenback last Friday, the lowest in 12 years, comparable to the 1997 regional crisis levels.
The weak ringgit is pushing up the cost of imports. This, coupled with the higher cooking oil and fuel prices effective earlier this month, has added some burden to the already tough lives of average Malaysians.
The drastic fall of ringgit also has a strong negative bearing on the people’s consumer sentiment while making it harder for local employers to hire migrant workers.
If our fundamentals are as good as our government officials would like to claim, why has the local unit remained sluggish ever since it went below the 3.80 psychological barrier on July 6, 2015? Why has China’s plan to increase investment in Malaysia failed to lift the market confidence?
I’m quite sure those in the market are well aware of the weaknesses in the country’s economy even though those in power are most reluctant to admit.
Firstly, the 2017 Budget tabled last month has exposed the predicament of the government’s finances with the operating expenditures rising and revenue creation target overly optimistic. Many people downright do not believe that PM Najib is able to achieve the “zero deficit” target by 2020.
Secondly, development expenditures have been squeezed, making up only a mere 18% of all allocations or RM46 billion, not sufficient to spearhead the country’s economic development and transformation.
Thirdly, in order to retain the sovereign credit rating, Najib is unwilling to come up with more allocations to stimulate the economy while running out of new ideas to lure more foreign investments or reform the country’s economic structure.
As such, the Budget and the PM’s fruitful visit to Beijing are not expected to have any remarkable catalytic effect on the national economy.
1MDB
Meanwhile, the government has also failed to conclude the 1MDB case that has deepened Western investors’ skepticism on the country’s administrative, judicial and enforcement transparency. The government’s reluctance to cooperate in oversea probes of 1MDB has further dented the country’s image.
After Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency, Malaysia’s economic weaknesses have been further exposed.
We have prepared for the TPP for five years now with the hope the trade initiative will help stimulate the country’s economic growth. The World Bank once projected that Malaysia would be the second largest beneficiary nation under the TPP, which is expected to boost the country’s GDP growth to 8%.
Unfortunately Trump’s protectionist stand means the TPP may be scrapped and Malaysia will lose the engine that thrusts the nation’s economy forward.
If Trump is against free trade, a full-fledged trade war could ensue, and the export-reliant Malaysian economy is poised to take the brunt.
We must be psychologically prepared that Trump’s anti-globalization agenda could plunge the entire world’s economy into an unprecedented dilemma. Do we have what it takes to deal with the impending disaster?
Another negative factor is that Trump has promised energy self sufficiency for America, and is prepared to remove the restrictions on oil exploration. If this were to materialize, crude prices will head south as a result of oversupply, dealing a further blow on Malaysia.
Although the treasury has reduced its dependence on oil revenue, the RM10.6 billion tax revenue target for next year will likely be missed if crude prices slip below US$40 per barrel. More subsidy and development expenditure cuts are on the way.
We simply have too many economic challenges ahead of us, but unfortunately our government gets so much carried away by the flashy economic data that it has overlooked the potential risks and the people’s feelings, and has failed to adopt the necessary preventive measures.
STEERLESS SHIP & RED SHIRTS HAVOC
We can only pray now that external conditions will not get too nasty. If the country sinks into another recession, the rift in the Malaysian society is set to widen. We can never count on Malaysians to donate their gold bars to salvage the national economy like the Koreans did during the Asian financial crisis.
In addition, we must also cross our fingers that the Red Shirts will not go beserk during this weekend’s Bersih 5.0 rally, or the country’s vulnerable economy will take a further beating.
Both the ruling and opposition camps are only serious about wresting the power without workable solutions to tackle the country’s economic plight.
The national economy is akin to a steerless vessel in the wide open sea. We can only pray that the sea is calm and we can make it to the opposite shore in one piece.
MYSINCHEW

1 comment:

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