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Friday, March 17, 2017

Newsweek Magazine : Saudi Arabia May Attack Qatar ! ! MALAYSIA TO HELP ??



Here is an interesting opinion by Ryan Riegg, posted on Newsweek Magazine.  

A friend who sent me this said,  "The guy thinks and writes like you".   

Truncated for easy reading of course. You can click on the link for the full story.

What Is Saudi Arabia Going to Do With Its Arms Buildup?

Ryan Riegg writes about Saudi massive military expansion 
hawks may use military action as hedge against domestic instability 

Will the kingdom turn on its neighbors to head off a revolt at home?

Obama approved record-breaking $60 billion arms sale to Saudi 
Obama much better at it than almost any previous president  
weapons being used by Saudis to bomb Yemen

Saudi Arabia’s massive expansion of military
continued unabated for six years 
plans to train submarine crews in Malaysia
hawks within Saudi to use military action 
as hedge against instability caused by kingdom’s decline

economic reforms will fail ie Aramco IPO,  Vision 2030, OPEC cuts 
then hawks may push kingdom to new regional war

Saudi Political System Increases Probability of War in Middle East

takfiri Islam promoted by Saudi is expansionist by nature
glorifies violence, portrays non-Muslims as inherently inferior

religion commands Muslims to "hate" Christians, Jews, "polytheists" 

theocracy makes growth impossible without violent external expansion
Saudi Arabia is theocracy. Religion and state are combined
No other forms of faith allowed. No other political parties allowed
thinking in regards to religion actively discouraged

theocracy severely limits individual choice
inhospitable to both creativity and science

  • Saudi unable to retain scientists or educated workers. 
  • long-term internal growth severely hampered by brain drain 
  • chronic failure of performance in science and math

religious restrictions impossible to diversify or grow non-oil economy 
half labor force stuck at home due to gender segregation rules

  • prayers close business 2 - 4 times per workday, 15 - 60 mins each time
  • average Saudi workday  business close 10%-45% of the time 
  • for either prayer or lunch
  • impossible to have efficient economy when business close so often

90% of Saudi export economy based on oil
“Why the Saudis May Be Preparing for a Real War” 
unlikely economy will experience sustained growth in near term

Saudi to grow economy through conquest, violent expansion
dedicated 13% of GDP to military for six years 
largest per capita purchaser of weapons in the world.

Countries Facing the Largest Risks from Saudi Military Expansion

attack kingdom’s neighbors to stave off domestic discontent
U.S. unlikely to retaliate against kingdom.
kingdom’s economic decline continue. 

America too exhausted by endless involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan 
U.S. NOT willing to war against Saudi, entire Muslim world react violently 
Saudis believe they can do whatever they want, U.S. will not react
Obama’s failure to enforce his "red line" in Syria 

Trump isolationist view keep U.S. out of Middle East.
Trump dissatisfaction with Europe not paying "bill" for defense

If U.S. will not crack down, little will hold kingdom from attacking 

political, religious history of kingdom push for expansion through war
versus internal expansion through production of goods and services

Yemen is likeliest target for invasion. 
Yemen has been bombarded by Saudi for two years 

Saudi attacked Iranian, Pakistani vessels in Yemen 
no evidence Houthis attack non-Saudi vessels past two years 

Saudi target southern, eastern portions of Iraq (Anbar and Muthana)

Saudi could bomb Iraq Strategic Pipeline 
would raise prices of Saudi oil
  • Saudi spent past 5 years funding Nusra Front
  • Nusra spent more time taking over Anbar than fight Assad
  • Saudi guns funneled to ISIS to disrupt oil supply in Iraq 
  • according to Forbes substantially benefited Saudi regime
if Saudi invades Muthana and Anbar
provide Saudi major benefits:
Control oil fields in Abu Khaima, Samawa, Salman, Diwan.
Permanent disruption/control of Iraq Strategic Pipeline

monopoly on transport of Arabian oil and gas to Europe. 

should Saudi situation get bad enough, could also attack Qatar
Qatar holds three times as much natural gas as Saudi Arabia

Saudi attack on Qatar possibility
gas from Qatar, Iran greatest threat to Saudi regional power 
should Saudi economy continue decline Saudis might attack Qatar 
as last resort to stop Qatari natural gas from undermining Saudi oil

members of Saudi royal family care little for welfare of their region


Ryan Riegg is a member of the California bar.


My views :  The moment you cross the frontier from Myanmar until the shores of the Atlantic Ocean in Morocco, the people in that region seem plenty screwed up.  

This is not a blind accusation.  Just look at all the poverty, pestilence, strife, war and just plain stupidity that messes up peoples lives in this region. It seems never ending.

A few countries are slowly crawling out of their predicaments, maybe India (but I have my doubts).  

This is not a permanent situation. 
It is a temporary situation. 

Temporary for about maybe the next FIVE HUNDRED YEARS ! ! ! 

The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia are going to be embroiled in serious wars, violence and conflagration for a long time.

The reason for this is very simple : they are unbelievably stupid.  

Their entire system of civilisation is devoid of rational use of the human brain. 

'Tidak boleh menggunakan akal' taken to its extreme.

They do not believe in logical discussion or in rational discourse. 

Their entire society are 'non rational actors'.

This is why I keep saying again and again - DO NOT GET INVOLVED IN THEIR POLITICS. 

FOR THESE PEOPLE THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ISLMAIC BROTHERHOOD.

HOW STUPID CAN YOU GET? THEY ARE ALL BUSY KILLING EACH OTHER. 

Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, every where they are killing each other. 

So if we take sides, allow them to come here and train on our submarines for example, then we are only helping them to kill each other.

ISRAEL IS NOW A VERY, VERY GOOD FRIEND OF SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR, KUWAIT, BAHRAIN, JORDAN, EGYPT ETC.

So there are no more 'non-Muslim' enemies for Saudi Arabia or Egypt or Iraq or Syria.  

There are no more "kafir" or non-Muslim enemies like the Adolph Hitlers, no more Emperor Hirohito, no more Attila the Hun, no more Hulagu Khan (who burned Baghdad in 1258 AD), no more Chosroe (the Persian) and no more British Empire, Italian Empire, French colonisation or Spanish conquests.

In the 21st century the only enemies of the Arabs (whom they can burn and kill) are other Arabs.       

SO PLEASE DONT BE SO STUPID AS TO TAKE SIDES WITH ONE ARAB AGAINST ANOTHER ARAB.

PLEASE DONT TRAIN THEIR SUBMARINE CREWS, PARTICIPATE IN THEIR MILITARY EXERCISES ETC.

JUST LEAVE THEM ALONE. LETS MIND OUR OWN BUSINESS.  

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