Higher demand, declining reserves will support palm oil prices, says analyst

An industry analyst says the Sino-US trade conflict can stoke Chinese appetite for palm oil as an alternative to oils made from soybeans. (Bernama pic)

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil prices are likely to be supported in 2019 by rising consumption, falling inventories and slowing growth in production of the edible oil, a leading industry analyst told Reuters today.

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped almost 8% in February amid worries over declining demand, but analyst James Fry expects appetite to be stoked as more of the commodity is used in biofuels.

Biodiesel production is forecast to use 12-13 million tonnes of crude palm oil this year, up from about 10 million tonnes last year, said Fry.

“Indonesia has implemented the B20 (mandate) and B30 is possible after elections,” Fry said, referring to rules that mean biodiesel must have a bio-content of 20% or 30%.

“Malaysia has B10. Globally, two million tonnes of additional palm oil will be used to make biodiesel,” Fry said on the sidelines of an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.

Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top producers of palm, have implemented higher biodiesel mandates in recent months to boost consumption of the commodity.

Fry added that the Sino-US trade conflict could stoke Chinese appetite for palm oil as an alternative to oils made from soybeans.

“China is expected to use less soybean oil because of the trade war, which means higher use of palm oil. There is additional food demand for palm oil and higher biodiesel consumption (in China),” he said.

And Fry expects output growth to ease in 2019.

“There is a cutback in the use of fertiliser because of low prices (for palm oil last year), and it will impact production by around the middle of this year,” he said.

“The growth in output will be lower than what it would have been otherwise,” Fry said, adding that he expects global palm oil stocks to drop by more than one million tonnes in 2019.

That comes after palm oil inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for over 80% of global supply, rose to record highs in 2018.

Capping acreage to allay deforestation fears

Meanwhile, Bernama reported that the primary industries ministry will be presenting a proposal to the Cabinet this month to cap the maximum area for oil palm plantations at about 6.5 million hectares, up from the 5.85 million hectares as at end-2018.

Minister Teresa Kok said this was expected to be achieved by 2023 based on the average annual expansion of plantations from 2013 to 2018.

“This move was made in order to dismiss accusations that oil palm plantations are the reason for deforestation.

“But, in order to achieve this, we have to work with various state governments,” she said when officiating the 30th annual Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition, Price Outlook 2019 Conference and Exhibition (POC 2019) here today.

Kok said palm oil players should also improve the research and development of seedlings, as well as boost the productivity and yields of existing oil palm trees.

Kok said the ministry would also propose to the Cabinet to compel information on the areas under oil palm plantations to be made public.

“We need to be transparent. We hope the Cabinet will approve the proposal,” she said.

Meanwhile, Kok said the government’s effort this year to expand the B10 and B7 biodiesel programmes to the transport and industrial sectors was expected to raise palm oil consumption by 761,000 tonnes annually.

“This will help reduce the huge stockpile and lift commodity prices,” she added. - FMT