What is Mahathir's next move?

Call it a coup, power struggle or even opportunist strategy. The soon-to-be 95-year-old interim Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad has staged a classic ‘Sun Tzu’s Art of War’ in the face of the coveted premiership seat.

Mahathir did it – his way.

None of the factions in the Pakatan Harapan then could ever predict Mahathir’s reaction after the fiery and heated presidential council meeting last Friday that supposedly ended with a ‘unanimous’ consensus.

Yes, the 'un-unanimous' Harapan consensus. However, Harapan is still very much intact with the original three – DAP, Amanah and PKR minus – former deputy president Azmin Ali and 10 other leaders.

What now Harapan? Umno and PAS have been waiting for the coalition’s breakup, but that did not materialise. Harapan still exists without Bersatu. It is back to square one, and Mahathir has every rein and power to ‘reshape’ the political landscape.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Parti Warisan Sabah – hailed as ‘kingmakers’ to break the current deadlock from the ‘Sheraton Move’ – will be one of the major factors for Mahathir’s interim cabinet.

Barely 12 hours after the hullabaloo, the Umno-led BN and PAS called for a fresh general election to seek a new mandate from the electorate.

BN and PAS together have 60 MPs in total.

This is where the coup stands at this juncture, with similar calls made by Bersih 2.0 and several NGOs yesterday, after Sunday’s fiasco.

What are the options in the current situation? There are several possible outcomes from the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s interview with all MPs:

• Mahathir enjoys the majority support from the MPs and is formally reappointed as prime minister for now;
• Mahathir continues as interim prime minister and forms a cabinet of a minority government;
• With no clear support from MPs, a motion of support for a prime minister is to be moved during the parliamentary session in March;
• In the event of a hung Parliament, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong exercises his right, according to Article 55 in the Federal Constitution, to dissolve the House and pave way for fresh elections.

Dissolution of Parliament and snap election

James Chin, director of University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute, agrees with the view that the dissolution of Parliament to hold a general election is currently the best option.

However, he is of the opinion that former defence minister and Sembrong MP Hishammuddin Hussein (below) and his team may disagree with the proposal.

Chin also pointed out that DAP will still have solid support in event of a snap general election, but Amanah, PKR and Bersatu will suffer.

Mahathir’s announcement of his resignation as the seventh prime minister came as a surprise to Bersatu, Harapan, and Azmin’s faction. His main aim is to quickly stabilise the situation by 'deconstructing and reconstructing' the current political landscape.

Hence, his move to resign as prime minister and Bersatu chairperson had sent shockwaves.

“He (Mahathir) cleverly manoeuvres himself into the centre of gravity – so now he can get two things; no opposition in the cabinet and possibly a two-thirds majority for a short while,” Chin said.

Resetting the political landscape

The clear division in Harapan last Friday resulted in a split culminating in Bersatu's exit from the coalition.

Mahathir refused to play into the hands of either side and announced his sudden resignation. He is seen as taking the opportunity to reset the political landscape and avoid politics along racial and religious lines.

However, the Asia Institute director believes that this is all part of Mahathir’s plan.

“I think the split was not a split, but Mahathir is playing a ‘game’.

“He knows Bersatu will not accept his resignation (as the party chairperson) – so how can (Bersatu president) Muhyiddin Yassin carry the party? Only Mahathir can lead the party. Without Mahathir, the party is a shell so he can afford to 'resign’,” Chin said.

Mahathir’s interim cabinet

Mahathir is known for ‘doing things his way’ and the current situation is a very interesting landscape where the interim prime minister has an absolutely free hand to decide in the appointment of cabinet members.

If Mahathir is not satisfied with the current pool of MPs, there is a possibility the new cabinet may comprise 60 percent politicians and 40 percent technocrats.

“Interestingly, it is not like him to appoint technocrats. The only prominent technocrat under him is Tok Pa (Jeli MP Mustapa Mohamed). The rest came after him,” Chin opined.

He also said that Mahathir would usually appoint technocrats to government-linked companies (GLCs).

“I am of the view that Mahathir may announce his cabinet similar to the likes of the Indonesian president Joko Widodo’s second-term cabinet in 2019,” he added.

Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, had appointed a mix of politicians, tycoons, and technocrats to the cabinet.

Among them includes Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a former World Bank managing director as finance minister, and Nadiem Makarim, founder of Gojek as education and culture minister.

As of February 2020, the Senate has 15 federal vacancies and one state vacancy, from Malacca. On this note, Mahathir may use this as an option to build his cabinet.

The scenario at the moment is still very fluid, but we can expect an interim cabinet by the end of the week. Only time will tell.

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NORMAN GOH is a former journalist. - Mkini