Umno man favoured to win tomorrow, as Slim campaign draws to a close

SLIM POLLS | Voters in the quiet semi-rural constituency of Slim head to the poll booths tomorrow after the conclusion of an increasingly spirited campaign that is still expected to deliver a win for Umno/BN candidate Mohd Zaidi Aziz.

The by-election was called following the death of four-term incumbent Mohd Khusairi Abdul Talib on July 15, and Zaidi is favoured to triumph over independent rival Amir Khusyairi Mohamad Tanusi, who is backed by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang party, and another independent S Santharasekaran, who would do well to retain his deposit.

Among the highlights in this campaign are some internal tensions within Perikatan Nasional (PN) that surfaced when Bersatu members were booed by their coalition partner Umno at a ceremah, which was also attended by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who then promptly set Bersatu the impossible challenge of delivering all the votes it got in the general election when it was part of the Pakatan Harapan coalition.

Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan also made the news when he touted the newfound unity of Umno and PAS members as being essential to the success of the Malay-Muslim community, saying: "Let us forget which party we are from, the most important thing is our race and religion."

Prompted about Bersatu and Umno cooperation in the campaign, Zaidi, who is the acting Tanjung Malim Umno chief, brushed off the alleged conflicts, saying that Bersatu had expressed full support for him.

Former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak also made his presence felt, appealing to the voters to show their solidarity with him following his conviction in the SRC International case linked to 1MDB.

Najib tried to target Teluk Intan-based Amir for not being a Slim local, but interestingly, Zaidi is not registered locally either while Santharasekaran is registered in neighbouring Behrang. So none of the three competing men will be casting a vote tomorrow.

Despite it being the first electoral battle since the collapse of the Harapan federal government after the coalition skipped the Chini polls, there is little indication that the vote tomorrow will be viewed as either a vindication or rejection of the move to set up the current PN government.

At a ceramah, BN secretary-general Annuar Musa claimed that PN was formed due to the need to save the country from the damage caused by the previous Harapan administration, while Bersatu secretary-general Hamzah Zainudin went further, saying that those who defected from Harapan should be treated as saviours, not traitors.

The campaign itself was held against the backdrop of the establishment of Mahathir’s Pejuang, even as his protégé Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman declined to join the party in favour of focusing on a new youth-based movement.

Meanwhile, Bersatu suddenly announced that it would be opening its doors to non-Malay members, partly to accommodate non-Malay supporters of PKR defector Azmin Ali.

Amanah heavyweights descended on Slim with vice-president Mahfuz Omar (above) claiming that PAS veterans in the constituency have expressed their discontent with the party working together with Umno and would instead cast their votes for the independent candidate Amir.

His fellow party man, communications director Khalid Samad, said now that it was in the government, PAS had lost its fangs, having previously relied on playing racial and religious cards to stir anger among the people.

A third Amanah big gun, former Perak menteri besar Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin, blasted the "fatwa" declared by PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan, in which he directed PAS supporters to vote for the Umno/BN candidate. This, Nizar said, left the PAS supporters confused and dissatisfied.

While generally conducted in a civil manner, three police reports were also lodged in relation to the Slim by-election – over a paint-sprayed poster of a candidate, alleged fake news on social media and the holding of a job fair that was opened by Human Resources Minister M Saravanan.

Pre-existing factors

Regardless of the campaign issues, Umno began as a comfortable favourite from the get-go, due to its past record in the constituency and advantageous voter demographics that are 75 percent Malay, 13 percent Indian and 10 percent Chinese.

In the 2018 general election, Umno's Khusairi secured 8,327 votes, Bersatu garnered 6,144 votes and PAS gained 4,103 votes. The combined votes of PAS and Umno alone would give Zaidi a winning advantage.

In addition, Zahid said Umno is expecting a good voter turnout due to the long Merdeka weekend.

Since 1986, Slim has been represented by just two Umno representatives - Khusairi, who held the seat from 2004 and his predecessor, former state speaker Junus Wahid, from 1986 to 2004.

Slim falls under the Tanjung Malim parliamentary constituency. Since its creation in 1959, Tanjung Malim was held by MCA until PKR's Chang Lih Kang wrested the seat away for Harapan in GE14.

However, of the three state seats within Tanjung Malim, Sungkai and Behrang supported Harapan, while Slim stayed loyal to Khusairi and Umno.

Chang, who has consistently been campaigning for Amir, conceded that the campaign was at times lukewarm, compared with other by-elections, and that taking the Slim seat is a tall order for the opposition.

Still, there remains a strong possibility that those who support Bersatu are going to vote for Amir, who is backed by Harapan and Mahathir, who was Bersatu’s main draw in GE14.

Amir has reiterated that while he is not from Slim, the constituency is close to his heart.

"In fact, our neighbour was Junus, who was the Slim assemblyperson at the time," he said.

Amir (above) also showed a light-hearted side when he promised voters in the Slim by-election they can pull his ears if he ignored them after being elected.

He also demonstrated some fire, in calling on the people of Perak to show what they think of the betrayal of the voters’ mandate in 2018.

Lack of development stretches decades

The voters’ penchant for picking Umno in Slim may be called into question, given the number of issues such as electricity, running water supply and floods, which are plaguing the Slim folk, notably the Orang Asli villagers.

Perak opposition leader Abdul Aziz Bari has highlighted the lack of attention to long-standing issues in Slim and he called on the voters to punish Umno for it. 

Another former Perak state executive councillor, A Sivanesan, claimed that the constituencies in Perak that are strongholds of BN are less developed than those under Harapan.

Sivanesan (above) said the development of areas under Umno, such as Lenggong and Grik, only consisted of government buildings.

He also touched on the issue of floods in Slim, which he said could not be resolved due to the weakness or apathy of the BN leaders in the area.

"The issue of floods in Slim is more or less the same as in Bidor. Before 2008, if it rained for three hours, one-third of Bidor would be flooded. But after I was elected in Sungkai, this issue was resolved in six months. Now, even after five hours of rain, it does not flood in Bidor," Sivanesan said.

"But in Slim, the issue of floods for more than 50 years is still unresolved. So, who is to blame?" he asked.

In response to the Malaysiakini report, Zaidi said the flood issue is his focus and needs to be resolved immediately.

Meanwhile, news broke that the Orang Asli residents at Kampung Sungai Teras have finally got a steady supply of electricity, earlier this week, after decades of trying.

It seemed to have been a strategic move that the issue was brought up during the Slim by-election. Now, finally, the Semai villagers no longer have to go to the generator in front of the house of their village chief (Tok Batin) Kuloh Bah Rinteh, between 7pm and midnight, to charge their phones.

Kuloh (above) claimed that it took 60 years to get electricity for his village and that the problem dated back to his father’s time.

Perak State Executive Councillor for Infrastructure, Energy, Water and Public Transportation Mohd Zolkafly Harun said the work of the electrical substation started on July 31, 2019, before the installation of the electricity metre was done last Saturday.

Zolkafly added that it was not accurate to say that the installation was an "election sweetener" because the effort to develop the area had been in the pipeline for several years.

Analysts expect Umno to win

It also remains to be seen if the Slim by-election can be viewed as a barometer of public support for the two coalitions in the run-up to the Sabah state election, which has different dynamics at play, and any snap general election that Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin may call.

Earlier in the campaign, political scientist Wong Chin Huat told Malaysiakini that Slim does not provide an accurate test of either coalition’s ability to work together, while Prof Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, a political analyst at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said he is anticipating an easy victory for Umno and feels that PN is ahead of its rival in terms of working together.

Shamsul also noted that the opposition has yet to solve the power tussle between Mahathir and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim and that this would continue to divide them until a solution is reached.

Universiti Malaya sociopolitics professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said while Umno has an easy win on paper, the challenge would be to show that under PN, Malay-Muslim support is at a higher level as a result of this new alliance. - Mkini