Fitch downgrades Malaysia’s credit rating to BBB+

 

Rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded Malaysia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) from A- to BBB+, potentially making it more expensive for the country to borrow.

However, it improved its outlook on Malaysia from negative to stable.

Fitch said although Malaysia has moved quickly to provide relief for Covid-19’s economic impact, the impact remains substantial and adds to Malaysia’s already high fiscal burden.

It also cited the ongoing political uncertainty following the Sheraton Move as among the factors for the downgrade.

“The government has secured passage of core legislation to implement relief measures, including the 2021 budget, but, in Fitch's view, lingering political uncertainty following the change in government last March weighs on the policy outlook as well as prospects for further improvement in governance standards […]

“Prospects for further improvement in Malaysia's governance are uncertain in Fitch's view.

“The new government continues to implement some transparency-enhancing measures launched under the previous coalition, and corruption trials of former officials have continued, but the government's thin two-seat parliamentary majority implies persistent uncertainty about future policies, in Fitch's view.

“After a significant improvement in 2019, Malaysia's World Bank governance score weakened slightly in 2020, to the 64th percentile, and is closer to the 'BBB' median of 58th percentile than the 'A' median of 76th percentile. 

"Deterioration in governance and continued political uncertainty could dampen investor sentiment, constraining economic growth,” it said.

In an immediate response, Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz reportedly decried that it is unfair for Fitch to focus on Malaysia’s fiscal and political position.

“By honing on Malaysia’s fiscal position and political situation, Fitch’s decision does not give due justice and credit to our crisis response efforts and our strong economic fundamentals,” Bernama quoted him as saying.

He said Malaysia has already seen the beginnings of an economic recovery thanks to various stimulus packages implemented since March and expressed disappointment over the downgrade.

Meanwhile, Fitch predicted that Malaysia’s economy will contract by 6.1 percent this year, and then rebound by 6.7 percent next year.

However, it noted that there is uncertainty in these projections due to near-term developments in the Covid-19 pandemic.

It also anticipated that Malaysia’s fiscal deficit will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels due to a continuation of support measures and political pressure for higher spending.

In addition, it noted that Malaysia’s debt situation has worsened due to the pandemic, from 65.2 percent of GDP last year to 76.0 percent of GDP last year.

“Malaysia's debt is close to 400 percent of revenue, around three times the peer median,” it said.

The debt figures include officially reported “committed government guarantees” on loans (12.6 percent of GDP), as well as 1MDB’s net debt (1.3 percent of GDP).

As for the 2021 budget proposal’s target of reducing the deficit from 6.0 percent of GDP this year to 5.4 percent next year, and average 4.5 percent from 2021 through 2023, Fitch said it believes these targets are achievable. - Mkini