'Big Umno win may lead to GE15'

 

Experts say the Johor election, which would be held within two months, could be the last state election before GE15, as Umno would want to take advantage of its momentum. - NSTP file pic

KUALA LUMPUR: The prime minister may decide to dissolve Parliament and call the 15th General Election (GE15) if Umno sweeps the Johor snap polls, said political analysts.

They said the Johor election, which would be held within two months, could be the last state election before GE15, as Umno would want to take advantage of its momentum.

Geostrategist Associate Professor Dr Azmi Hassan said should Umno secure a majority in Johor, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob would be "forced" to dissolve Parliament as this was the best time for Umno to push for national polls, after securing the mandate in Melaka a few months ago.

Associate Professor Dr Azmi Hassan.

"Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) are at their weakest point after the Melaka and Sarawak state elections.

"So the plan is (for Umno) to use the state polls to hold elections as a means or prelude to the general election," he told the New Straits Times.

If a win in Johor was not enough for Ismail Sabri to call for elections, Azmi said another state election could happen.

"I can't say where, but it could be in Perak, where Umno is dominant."

Another political analyst, Professor Dr Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid, also said Umno would push hard for GE15 while it had the upper hand against its opponents.

Professor Dr Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid.

She said in Melaka, Umno and Barisan Nasional won with more than a two-thirds' majority. Repeating this success in other states that were BN strongholds seemed to be a strategy for the coalition to maintain the winning momentum.

"If Umno wins significantly in Johor, pushing for GE15 would be a wise strategy to garner support at the state and national levels (in Parliament).

On Saturday, Sultan of Johor Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar agreed to the dissolution of the state assembly to pave the way for a state election.

The Johor state legislature comprises 56 seats divided between Umno (14), DAP (14), Bersatu (11), PKR (7), Parti Amanah Negara (six), MIC (two) and Pas (one).

The Johor government has a slim majority of 28 seats while the opposition has 27 seats.

The state government's position became tenuous following the death of Kempas assemblyman Datuk Osman Sapian, the former menteri besar, last month.