USA TARIFFS - The 90 Day Clock Is Running (Until July 8th 2025)

 Did you know that the Shanghai Stock Market has jumped about 9% the past four weeks? That is a lot. 

President Trump announced the US tariffs (that involves about 90 countries) on April 2nd 2025.  China 'retaliated' by hiking their tariffs against the US. Then the US countered by raising tariffs against China by some wild figures 125%, 140% bla bla.

Then suddenly President Trump announced a 90 day postponement of the new US tariffs. That is until July 8th 2025 (just after the July 4th "Independence Day" weekend - I have a feeling they have planned this out all along).

Now both China and the US have since cancelled those crazy tariffs. They have decided to negotiate. Here is some news:

Risk being sidelined’: US-China trade truce raises stakes for ASEAN
M'sia, Vietnam, Indon, Thail can ill afford higher tariffs than China

• temporary deal between US - China Monday (May 12) 
• put brakes on escalating trade war  
• 90-day deal between the two global powers
• as clock ticks towards a Jul 8 deadline 
• US agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from 145%
• In return, China lowered 125% tariffs to baseline 10%
• Talks on more comprehensive trade agreement to continue 
• before US-China truce expires on Aug 12

• raised stakes for ASEAN countries to negotiate with Washington
• ASEAN will race to wrap up trade talks with US
• Washington might reinstate steeper tariff rates on the world
• ASEAN wary of emerging from US talks with higher tariffs than China 
• this will hurt their competitiveness and investment appeal

My Comments:

So the US has already lowered their tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%.
And the Chinese have lowered their 'baseline tariff' on US goods to 10% !! 
What does that mean?

And they are still negotiating:

Talks on more comprehensive trade agreement to continue 

before US-China truce expires on Aug 12

So for the rest of the world the gun (pointed at our heads) will go off by July 8th. 
For the Chinese they have been given ANOTHER MONTH until August 12th. 
I think ASEAN and any other 'inflexible' countries are going to get screwed.

• Ok US-China tariff has now been lowered to 30%.
• And China-US baseline tariff has been lowered to 10%. 
• What happens after the US-China comprehensive trade agreement by Aug 12? 
• Will they lower their mutual tariffs even lower? 
• What is lower than 10%? 
• ZERO PERCENT? 
  

• I raise this point to ponder what will happen to US-Malaysia tariffs? 
• The US is NOT going to negotiate with ASEAN as a bloc.
• Neither do Vietnam, Indon, S'pore want to negotiate with the US as a bloc

When the US and China strike a comprehensive deal, possibly by 8th July 2025 (which is only 51 days away) and lets say they agree on somewhere between 10% to 30% overall tariff rate, plus some REDUCTIONS in non-tariff barriers like licenses, permits, monopoly licenses, minimum local content regulations etc. (Facebook, X, Tik Tok may not be on the table at all).

Anyway in such event do you think the US will turn to Malaysia and ask politely 'How can we help you?'   I dont think so.

US-China trade is worth US$582 billion.

Malaysia-US trade is worth US78 billion - SEVEN times less than US-China trade.

I dont think the US will be too worried about Malaysia. 

Washington might reinstate steeper tariff rates on the world  may hit us hard. 
The clock is really ticking - we have 51 days left.

• So what exactly are our fellows doing? 
• Maybe time to visit Mongolia? 
• There are only 193 countries in the world. 
• If Balochistan becomes independent there will be 194 countries. 
• What would be a good time to visit Balochistan? 
• Between roadside-bomb season and suicide-bomb month?
• I know many of you are already making a wish. Tch, Tch, Tch.
  

Seriously folks, what if they decide on the 'Do nothing' option? We wont do anything. Because they do not want to give up the quotas, the monopoly licenses, the permits, the local content regulations etc. We might get hit by the new US tariffs. 

I dont think they even fully understand the consequences.  

 The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.