Umno’s ‘inconsistent’ stance on DAP fuels PAS’s hopes in Johor

 However, an analyst claims PAS recognises it is being overly optimistic given it does not have a strong base in the southern state.

Johor’s multi-ethnic makeup gives Umno a significant advantage over PAS, whose influence is confined to the northern Malay-majority states, say analysts.

PETALING JAYA:

 Johor PAS is confident of capitalising on Umno’s contradictory stance towards DAP, arguing the inconsistency will boost the Islamic party’s chances in the next state election, due by mid-2027.

Despite having only one seat in the Johor state assembly – Maharani, held by Abdul Aziz Talib – Johor PAS deputy commissioner Mazri Yahya expressed confidence that voter sentiment at the 16th state election will tilt in the Islamic party’s favour.

“Umno campaigned under the slogan ‘No Anwar, No DAP’ during the previous state election (in 2022). But after the general election, Umno chose to work with DAP,” Mazri told FMT.

“Voters can clearly see the inconsistencies. PAS and PN are sure that the people will not be deceived a second time,” he said, adding that PAS is confident its strong machinery will help it retain the Maharani seat and capture additional seats.

Green wave stops at northern states

However, analysts believe that Johor PAS’s ambitions may be misplaced, pointing to the state’s multi‑ethnic landscape as a significant hurdle.

Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) said PAS is unlikely to do well at the next state polls if Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan maintain their existing cooperation.

“By working together, BN and PH can attract a broader range of voters through their electoral strategies and ideological differences,” he told FMT, leaving PAS with “little chance” of making an impact.

Johor has long been regarded as a BN stronghold, with a more diverse voter base compared to PAS bastions such as Kedah and Perlis, where Malay‑majority constituencies have played a key part in the party’s success, he said.

Lau added that PAS’s strength remains concentrated in the peninsula’s Malay heartland in the north.

He said the “green wave” — a term associated with the substantial gains made by the Islamic party during the 2018 and 2022 general elections — is unlikely to spread south.

“The ‘green wave’ is largely confined to the Malay belt, such as Kedah and Perlis.

“Johor, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan are very different due to their multi-ethnic composition, so PAS is unlikely to make significant gains,” he said.

Meanwhile, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said PAS itself recognises that its ambitions in Johor may be overly optimistic.

“PAS does not have a strong base in Johor. Even if BN is weakened, PAS is still unlikely to win more seats due to its limited support and the state’s multi-ethnic voter base,” he told FMT.

He said the best PAS could hope for was to retain its Maharani seat and possibly add another to its tally.

Azmi said PAS would struggle in Johor’s mixed constituencies, where Amanah — a more moderate force within PH — has traditionally enjoyed strong traction, especially among Malay‑Muslim voters.

BN won 40 of the 56 seats in the last Johor election. PH secured 12, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won three, and Muda took one. - FMT