MTL, super El Nino: Malaysia faces flood and drought risks

 

Since the El Nino phenomenon can be predicted months in advance, it provides relevant authorities with the opportunity to implement preparatory measures. -NSTP/MUHAMMAD DELIMA ATAN

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia faces two weather challenges in the coming months, with heavy rain and floods during the Northeast Monsoon, followed by hotter, drier conditions from a possible Super El Nino that could cause drought, water shortages and affect agriculture.

The MTL, which began on Oct 27 and is expected to continue until March 2027, is forecast to bring between three and five episodes of continuous heavy rain, particularly from this November to January next year, thereby increasing the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying areas and near rivers.

The weather developments throughout the past week has also provided an early indication when heavy rain almost every afternoon in the capital city caused several flash floods, thus disrupting traffic flow and residents' daily activities.

Flood incidents have also been reported in several states including Perak, Kedah and Negri Sembilan, indicating weather risks that need to be monitored throughout this monsoon season.

However, both phenomena do not necessarily occur sequentially or have a uniform impact across the country; instead, rainfall distribution and temperature increases are expected to vary by region and seasonal changes.

Climatology expert Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said the MTL in Peninsular Malaysia typically has two main phases, with heavy rain concentrated in the East Coast such as Kelantan, Terengganu, and the northern part of Kedah between November and December, before shifting south to Johor and Sarawak in January to February.

He said the movement of the monsoon trough and monsoon surge bringing strong winds are among the factors contributing to continuous rain and increasing the risk of flooding in the area.

However, the strong influence of the El Nino has the potential to reduce the intensity and duration of rainfall throughout the MTL, particularly in November and December, thereby possibly lowering the risk of major floods like those that occurred in 2021.

Azizan also expects the number of monsoon surges to potentially decrease from the usual seven to eight to around five to six episodes, in addition to reducing the risk of large waves, coastal erosion, and sea level rise due to storm surges in coastal areas facing the South China Sea.

However, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) climatology and climate change expert Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang said that the reduction in average rainfall due to the El Nino does not mean Malaysia will be spared from floods because extreme weather events can still occur.

"Although on average the MTL weakens during a strong El Nino, this does not mean we will not face the flooding phenomena. It still needs to be monitored, we still need to be prepared," he told Bernama.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) anticipates that the Super El Nino phenomenon could bring hotter and drier conditions next year, particularly between late January and March, with maximum temperatures potentially exceeding 41 degrees Celsius.

Fredolin said the risk of hot weather and heatwaves in Peninsular Malaysia is expected to be more pronounced around March to April, while drier conditions in northern Borneo, particularly northern Sarawak and Sabah, have the potential to increase the risk of forest and peatland fires until April or May 2027.

He said the rain brought by the MTL to southern Sumatra and Kalimantan is expected to help reduce the risk of forest and peatland fires that contributes to cross-border haze before drier conditions potentially shift to northern Borneo.

Meanwhile, Azizan said the prolonged hot and dry weather also increases the risk of local haze due to open burning, including the burning of rice straw in Kedah, although the impact is expected to be more limited compared to cross-border haze.

Beyond the haze, reduced rainfall can also impact the nation's water resources – specifically the dams that supply water for domestic and agricultural use.

Azizan said the Timah Tasoh Dam in Perlis, as well as the Muda and Pedu dams in Kedah, are at risk of declining water levels should the dry conditions persist. This is particularly concerning given that the northern region of the Peninsula typically relies on rainfall during the monsoon transition period – roughly from April to May – to replenish its water reserves.

The risk of drought also places pressure on the agricultural sector, especially regarding off-season rice cultivation in the northern "rice bowl" areas of the Peninsula.

Fredolin added that a scarcity of water resources and a decline in agricultural yields could threaten food security and drive up food prices.

Furthermore, it exposes the public to risks such as heatstroke and other health issues associated with hot weather.

He emphasised that advancements in climate science should be integrated into disaster management planning; since the El Nino phenomenon can be predicted months in advance, it provides relevant authorities with the opportunity to implement preparatory measures. -BERNAMA