What do we do about the pandemic and lockdown?

It started in Wuhan, China. We all watched as China struggled to contain the coronavirus. We watched as the virus rapidly spread like wildfire from nation to nation. We watch the daily rise in the number of infections and deaths.

Now in the lockdown mode we watch our television screens as we and other nations battle the virus and figure out ways to keep businesses alive, workers employed and people fed. It has been more than four weeks. Thankfully our situation is not as severe as some other nations.

What happens now? When do we lift the lockdown? When do people get back to work? When can people travel again? This inaction and this feeling of helplessness are difficult to endure.

Do we have to wait until the virus is vanquished?

Now we know that there is no cure for the infection and there is no vaccine to prevent the infection. These, the experts say, are at least between 12 to 18 months away.

Some nations like Sweden, Singapore, Japan and South Korea did not initially impose a lockdown. Now with flare-ups here and there, some form of lockdown is being imposed in South Korea, Japan and Singapore.

The pressure on governments everywhere is to keep economies moving, people working and restoring the production, manufacturing, transportation and supply chains. The lockdown has disrupted everything.

The United States is experiencing huge job losses. Donald Trump wants to lift the lockdown – at least in some locations – as early as May. Can that be done without the risk of flare-ups? Are they forgetting why the lockdown was implemented in the first place?

The lockdown was to slow the spread of the virus to prevent the hospitals from being swamped and to give the government and the health service time to prepare for the expected increase in infections. It was not to vanquish the virus. You need the vaccine for that.

Some do not agree with the lockdown. They say that we must balance the number of people who die because of the virus against the businesses that collapse with the lockdown and the people who lose their jobs as a result.

They also say that most of the fatalities are old people or people with pre-existing conditions. The flu would have taken many of them anyway. In other words, these are not viable and perhaps not economically valuable persons. And so are dispensable. 

In the US many of the fatalities are among African Americans. It would be safe to assume that poor people suffer a higher mortality rate among those infected. There is, of course, an ethical problem here – what value do we place on the lives of the old and the infirm? 

Doctors take the Hippocratic oath – to do no harm and to treat patients to the best of their ability. Doctors, nurses and the whole pantheon of specialists and health personnel who choose to work in the health service because they love and care for people will not accept a decision that condemns some to die.

So, this is the dilemma of all nations. Get the people to work as soon as possible so that businesses can survive, and people can keep their jobs and accept a certain amount of risk of casualties to the virus. Few nations can wait for the vaccine to become available.

The longer the lockdown the greater the burden on the government. The Government will have to provide the funds for businesses to survive, for employees to stay employed and for people to be fed. Money for this will have to come from government reserves or from borrowings. 

The government is already strapped for cash and government debt is high. Government assistance to companies does not extend to foreign workers. And there are more than five million of them. Government funds are not available to them. Do we send them back? Will we need them after the lockdown is lifted?

We can, of course, stagger the return to normalcy. We can first partially lift the lockdown for essential services. We are already doing that in a limited way. We can then extend that to other businesses with stringent rules as to social distancing and personal hygiene. This may require only some of the employees to work at the office. The rest will have to work from home. Factories may not be able to work at full capacity. Workers could work around the clock in shifts.

Elderly persons and those with pre-existing conditions will still be required to stay at home. Many will not be able to see their children or grandchildren for a long time if they live overseas.

Taking the nation back to work will ensure that all employees - local and foreign - are working and earning. It will ensure that people are able to pay their bills and feed themselves. But strict social distancing will have to be observed including screening.

But what about schools, colleges and universities? What about places of worship, concert halls and theatres? What about restaurants? It is hard to see how effective social distancing can be practiced in these places.

Until there are cures and vaccines the virus will continue to threaten us. We cannot count on the virus mysteriously disappearing. We must continue to maintain high vigilance and keep our hospitals properly resourced. 

The lockdown was to buy us time to increase our preparedness. Extensive testing and contact racing appear to be the reason why Germany and South Korea were able to contain the spread of the virus more effectively. Is that something that we are going to do?

There is so little we know about the virus. And the experience of Europe and the United States appear different from the experience of East Asia and South-East Asia. Is it because some were better prepared and moved more quickly. 

Is it because some responded more obediently to social distancing rules? Is it because of the warmer weather in some places or natural immunity? Whatever may be the reasons, decisions about what we should do have to be made soon. We cannot stay in lockdown forever.

The coronavirus has exposed the underbelly of most nations. We should reflect on why we have so many poor people in our midst. We should reflect on how we treat the frontliners – people who look after us – doctors and nurses and other hospital staff, care home personnel, policemen and firemen. 

We should reflect on how we exploit workers both domestic and foreign. We pay them low wages to make huge profits for us. We should also reflect on why the sky is so blue and why there are so many stars at night now that there are fewer pollutants in the atmosphere because of the lockdown.

Clearly a new political and economic model is required. One that caters to the needs of all people within every country in the world. Rich people and rich nations cannot be indifferent to the plight of poor people and poor nations. 

Divisions of class, gender, race and religion are clearly irrelevant in the face of a pandemic like coronavirus. In this regard all should read Kate Raeworth’s book Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to think like a Twenty First Century Economist. See this link.

We now have the time to reflect on many things. And hopefully, each of us will then resolve to do something – however little – to make the world a better place for all of us to live in. 

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DAVID DASS is a lawyer, a Malaysiakini subscriber and commentator. - Mkini