Will There Be An Early General Election? Can The PN Government Last?

TO ALL THE BLIND SUPPORTERS OF BRADER ANWAR, PLEASE NOTE THAT THE BRADER WILL NOT BE MAKING any vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister.  

He has plainly said so already.  

And guess what? 

AFTER he made that statement he had that meeting with Muhyiddin Yassin.

Well it is not a crime.

This is politics. 

Anything is possible in politics..

But still, fool me once shame on you. 

Fool me twice the shame is on me.

I think the Brader's supporters have been shamed like ..err..97 times already?

And still counting?

Hangpa punya pasal lah.

It is not relevant anyway.

Do read on.

I am still in touch with my friends in Bersatu and in government. 

Including folks close around Tun Dr Mahathir.  

One bit of information I gleaned is that when Parliament re-convenes it can be Dr Mahathir who may move for a vote of no confidence against Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.  

My retort was that if he does so it will look really, really bad on Dr Mahathir.

During his first tenure as PM a long list of people like Musa Hitam, Ghafar Baba, Anwar Ibrahim all got kicked out (for good reason and less good reasons ie Ghafar Baba). 

Then  Abdullah Badawi and Najib got kicked out. 

If Dr Mahathir now makes a move to kick out Muhyiddin Yassin then that will look more worse on Dr Mahathir.  

So will there be an early general election?

This Corona Virus is already causing havoc. 

This lockdown is going to last until end of May 2020. 

After Hari Raya. 

Economic activity, production, businesses are all suffering or dying. The SMEs are dying. Even after the MCO is lifted, the economy is NOT going to come back any time real quick.

Other parts of the world are still suffering or are just beginning to go into lockdown for example Middle East and Africa. What about South America?

So the world supply chains will take some time to get back to full steam.

And dont forget, even before we got hit by the Corona Virus, the world economy was already steaming at less than full speed. 

More bad news for Malaysian government revenue (and hence the Malay economy) is that the oil price is falling. CORRECTION : The oil price today (WTI) hit US$14.87 per barrel. BELOW USD15 per barrel.

The new Finance Minister is dreaming of US$30 - US$60 oil !! 

That is not going to happen.

So when is the the best time to have a General Election?

You have only two choices : 

a. when the house is burning down?

b. after the house has burnt down?

Anyway here is The Edge.   I have more comments after this:

Umno letter to PM to give govt positions to Sabah Umno interpreted in three ways

1. Umno openly lobbying for positions

2. Umno's blatant demands in exchange for supporting PM

3. Umno bullying Muhyiddin

third view held by Kadir Jasin

Umno is bullying the PM

(OSTB : My view is "All of the above" and more. Do read on.)

Umno leader confirmed validity of letter

Umno tightening screws on PM 

PAS statement that GLC posts be given to all govt MPs

PAS lobbying for itself 

Umno and PAS holding PM to ransom 

PAS more committed to defend PM compared to Umno

PAS praising PM on a number of issues

Umno leaders very vocal in hitting the PM directly

However no guarantee PAS will continue supporting PM

Pas and Umno believe Muafakat Nasional will win next GE

Umno gung-ho about snap election in late Feb

UMNO / Pas throwing their weight around inside PN 

PM’s own party is small fish in big pond

It’s not helping Muhyiddin that Bersatu is fractured

Muhyiddin a lame duck

He is riding a tiger

  

My comments :  

Its all about money. Note my comments above about the Corona Virus, the state of the economy, the crashing oil prices etc.

The General Elections are three years away.  

If they have a snap election now - when the house is burning - no one can predict what will be the outcome of the general elections.

If they have an election in 2023 (or closer to 2023) the house would have burned down already. No one can predict the outcome of any elections then either.

All that stimulus package (of dishing out 'cash is king') would have expired itself. 

That RM1000 that was also deposited into my account.

You are giving me back my own money. My taxpayers money.

You think it will last until 2023? 

It will not even last until the end of this month.

Politics runs on money. 

Politicians run on money.

So the UMNO / Pas boys want to become Ministers, become Chairman of this and that so that they will have big salaries, cars with drivers and most importantly BUDGETS to play with. If you are Chairman then you can dish out contracts to your party cronies. They will deliver the votes for you. That's how it works.

The PAS want their MPs to be made CEOs and Chairmen of GLCs for the exact same reasons. Big salaries, prestige, budgets and dishing out contracts.

Without the Cash is King they cannot pay cash to retain their parliamentary or state seats. Or pay for their own party positions. Party elections also need cash. They may lose the next round of elections - both party elections and general elections.

No money no politician.

So if Muhyiddin does not give them positions, money and budgets  the PN coalition may break up - I suspect by late this year. Maybe early next year.

Unfortunately there are not enough Chairmanships / CEOs of GLCs, Lembaga, Perbadanan etc to go around. The juicy ones have already been taken up. 

So Tan Sri Muhyiddin is going to have a very tough time. 

He is going to come under increasing pressure. 

The trade off maybe let Java Man off the hook.

Or let Bugis off the hook.

In which case Muhyiddin, UMNO, Pas will all get kicked out in the next elections again. Orang Melayu sudah celik sikit.

And then Tan Sri Muhyiddin has recently also swallowed a VERY VERY BIG POISON PILL.  (Bro H, you can whatsapp me directly about this.) 

I believe Tan Sri Muhyiddin may lose his job - also because of this POISON PILL THAT HE HAS RECENTLY SWALLOWED.

Anyway tak kisah lah - whether the house just started burning now or the house would have burned down completely by 2023 :

• Will you vote for the Pakatan Harapan? (Dr Mahathir, DAP, PKR?) 
• I don't think I will anymore. Not in this present combination, not with their non-performance.)
• 
  
• Will you vote for the Perikatan Nasional ? No way.
• 
  
• Will you vote for Muafakat Nasional ? No way.

So who then?

I will vote for the candidate.

That will most likely be my choice. 

Look at the candidate. 

NOT the party.

In Lembah Pantai, where I vote, the present MP is PKR's Fahmi Fadzil.

I think I can vote for Fahmi again. He seems like an ok fellow.

Fahmy has not appeared in any videos  -  yet  :( 

Unless UMNO or DAP or whoever can place a better candidate against Fahmi in Lembah Pantai.

Vote for the candidate.

We dont have much choice. 

Jangan kira DAP, Bersatu, PKR, PAS, UMNO or anyone else.

Just look at the candidate.

"500 negara dalam dunia, air suam mencegah virus, kasut hitam, minimum wage RM1500, masterplan kilat untuk PD dalam empat hari, kaji air jamban, tanam buluh, suara doraemon, video tik tok, satu peratus saja mati Covid bla bla" semua tak boleh. 

Choose the candidates who are intelligent, speak intelligently, they are not corrupt, they can perform. If they are well read and know what to do that would be a bonus.