Easy Money Stops Flowing Among Pakistan Elite

 

The following article in Dawn.com was sent to me by a reader Mr Rajindar Bedi (thank you).

https://www.dawn.com/news/1702154/pakistans-days-of-extracting-geopolitical-rent-are-over-what-next

Since its independence some 75 years ago, Pakistan’s ruling elite have thrived on foreign largesse. 

Over the decades, the desire to benefit from geopolitical rents has become innate.

Lulled into a comfortable life, the current generation of this class is blind to how the geopolitical sands have shifted under their feet. Rather than wake up from their slumber and find a way to steady themselves and the country in today’s world, the country’s elite are insistent on staying firmly in place, no matter the consequences.

Since the turn of the 21st century, Pakistan’s stability has been underpinned by four main patrons — the United States, China, and the Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

It was the United States that offered a lifeline to Musharraf’s dictatorship following the 9/11 terror attacks. With loans restructured and Uncle Sam sending oodles of money to Islamabad and Rawalpindi, the good times had come back.

As the dictatorship collapsed under the weight of its own illegitimacy, the country stared into the abyss. But Washington needed a stable and secure Pakistan — the last thing anyone in the world wanted was the collapse of a nuclear-armed country and possible takeover of its nuclear assets by terrorists. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — long-time strategic allies — also got involved, playing the role of political guarantor and lender of last resort.
 

Enter China

By the time Washington soured on Pakistan, a new economic player was in town — China.

Another strategic ally, China was flush with cash and confidence at the time. It was done with hiding its strength and biding its time, and so embarked on a massive push to expand its global economic influence.

Islamabad, given its historical relationship with Beijing, emerged as a key target, especially because it was a neighbouring country whose economy was on the brink. Crippled by terrorism and power blackouts, Pakistan needed a saviour which emerged in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The good times rolled again, but like previous such cycles, Pakistan once again was on the brink. This time around, however, the geopolitical gods were not inclined to be kind to Pakistan and its ruling elite. A multipolar world was emerging and great power competition was back in vogue; the coronavirus only accelerated the pace of events.

Lessons from history

In the past, great power competition between the United States and the Soviet Union had been a boon for Pakistan, but this time around the action was in East Asia.

Washington’s foreign policy establishment, which had begun its pivot to Asia under Obama in fits and starts, was shocked and awed by Donald Trump.

China was priority number one, meaning that the forever war in Afghanistan had to be wrapped up. Biden continued this policy, clearly signalling that the only country in South Asia that he had a personal interest in was India.

This view was reinforced by the collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s regime in the backdrop of the withdrawal of American forces; Imran Khan’s statement that Afghans had broken the shackles of slavery underscored the view in Washington that Pakistan was not worth the drama.

Modernising the Gulf

During this period, a major shift occurred in the Gulf monarchies as well. The emergence of a younger, more globally connected leadership in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates altered the regional geopolitical map.

The Arab monarchies were now interested in pursuing radical transformation of their economy, society, and foreign policy. The Abraham Accords, a major achievement of Trump’s presidency, was an inflection point.

The monarchies now cared about return on investment from their allies, which included Pakistan. Unfortunately for them, both the economic and geopolitical returns in the recent past were in the red.

China also began to develop a more nuanced and jaded view of Pakistan and what its elites could offer.

The beginning of the Khan government started things off on the wrong foot, with Army Chief Bajwa having to visit Beijing to smooth things over.

But trouble would have brewed regardless of who ruled Islamabad, primarily because Pakistan’s elites were pursuing policies that would neither satisfy Chinese expectations nor minimise risks to Chinese investments in the country. Payments owed to the Chinese got stuck, projects stalled, visas were not approved, and the security situation deteriorated sharply.

The road ahead

The ongoing political and economic crisis must be viewed within the context of this history.

With the country’s ruling class currently engaged in scorched-earth warfare, all four of Pakistan’s historical patrons are recalibrating their policy towards Islamabad.

This is not only because Pakistan has fallen short of the expectations these countries have had over the years, but also because they have more important strategic challenges that they must contend with. As a result, they are not interested in spending an inordinate amount of time or resources in dealing with Pakistan.

Today’s increasingly multipolar world demands a different set of strategies from Pakistan. This is especially true because Pakistan’s traditional guarantors are preoccupied with a different set of challenges, and they increasingly believe that Pakistan does not offer much to them as a force multiplier — both geopolitically and economically.

My comments :

Well this article above does not speak about the most important component in any country - the people. What about the people of Pakistan? Does anyone care about them?

Pakistan is doomed. In Pakistan the elite families (maybe around four to seven of them) control vast resources in the country especially ownership of land. 

The Bhutto family for example is said to own over 250,000 hectares of land.

The building below here is the Bhutto family mausoleum where Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto are buried.

This is not only money but this is a statement. We own this place.

There are other smaller landlords in Pakistan who may own an entire village, a few villages or even a district. What this means is that all the people who live in the village or the district  are treated like squatters or at best tenant farmers. The people do not own the land they work on, the houses they live in or the produce of the land. The landlord is the owner of everything and extracts a portion of whatever they produce from the land.

You can get some idea of this system from these Youtube videos (https://youtu.be/IGTblBXOqpA,  https://youtu.be/fhOoFlvFvG0). They are in Urdu but you can catch the visuals.

Anyway,  the big money began flowing into Pakistan with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The US chanelled billions of US dollars to Afghanistan through Pakistan to fight the Soviets. The Pakistani generals and politicians extracted billions to line their own pockets.

After the Soviets left the US still pumped billions (but less) into Afghanistan.

Then came the biggest boom of all - 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan from 2001 until 2022. 21 years of really big American money flowing through the generals and the politicians in Pakistan.

Throughout all these years the average Pakistani remained poor. Some Pakistanis did enjoy a better life from sons and fathers working in the Gulf or sending money home from the UK and elsewhere in the West. But not enough to make a real change in the country.

Only the rich and the powerful got richer.

Now with the US having left the scene and with no one really caring about Afghanistan anymore (meaning no more flows of big money) Pakistan is short of easy money. 

Rich landlords will be squeezing their tenant farmers (aka slaves) even more.

Nothing less than a people's revolution can change Pakistan. That is not going to happen anytime soon. 

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.