With one of Umno’s “star campaigners” in jail and out of action, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob - under increasing internal pressure to dissolve parliament - is faced with a difficult decision that could determine not only BN’s fate in the next 15th general election (GE15) but possibly his own position.
On the one hand, analysts said acceding to demands from Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi for polls to be held this year could help Ismail Sabri to placate the party’s grassroots, who appear confident of victory based on BN’s success in past state elections.
However, they note that opting to “buy time” until next year could potentially see Ismail Sabri building on his reform agenda and taking control of Umno from Zahid, who is also facing multiple corruption charges in court.
Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist at Sunway University, argued that Najib Abdul Razak’s influence has been “overstated” and could be overcome by Ismail Sabri.
The former prime minister is now in prison after the Federal Court upheld his conviction, 12-year sentence and RM210 million fine.
“While Najib drew in crowds like celebrities, he might not have drawn in more votes.
“Ismail Sabri does not have Najib’s charisma, but if he runs till full term (July 15, 2023) and delivers more reforms, he would be able to present himself as the prime minister who restored stability and delivered the most reforms since 2018,” said Wong.
Unlike Zahid, Wong said Ismail Sabri’s “multi-partisan approach”, including brokering a memorandum of understanding with the opposition, means that he would be spared being framed as a “corrupt villain”.
“A less toxic campaign in GE15 would allow his fatherly style to survive better in Umno’s traditional territory,” he said.
PM under pressure
Coincidentally, Najib’s jailing comes as Ismail Sabri celebrates his one-year stint as prime minister with a raft of reforms passed under his belt - a prerequisite for him to maintain bipartisan support for the premiership, according to Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, associate director at Vriens & Partners, a public policy, government affairs and political risk consultancy.
Among others, Shazwan noted how Ismail Sabri’s administration had managed to push through a landmark bill aimed at deterring political defections, an Anti-Sexual Harassment Act, and several labour reforms.
This was on top of planned reforms, including a political financing bill, a term limit to the prime minister’s time in office, and the generational smoking ban.
“Fundamentally, however, these achievements matter little to Umno. The party’s president continues to pressure the prime minister to call for snap elections.
“Zahid, Najib and a sizeable amount of the party leadership - the so-called ‘court cluster’ - are facing judgment in their high-profile corruption charges; they view a fresh mandate as a potential way out,” he said.
Shazwan said the ball was now in the PM’s court on whether to give in to demands to dissolve Parliament.
“He can either accede to his party leadership’s demands to dissolve parliament or buy time by focusing on pending reform measures while letting current legal proceedings against party leaders take their course.
“By choosing the latter, he can attempt to build the case for a future Umno that is steered away from the corruption of the previous generation of leaders. He can then present a convincing argument to be a two-term prime minister,” he said.
Similarly, political analyst Kartini Aboo Talib said Zahid is expected to keep up pressure on Ismail Sabri, although it would be a more difficult task given the impact of the Federal Court’s decision against Najib without any intervention from the government.
“The court’s decision must be respected as a matter of integrity. From a global view, the decision upheld the principles of judicial independence in line with the doctrine of separation of powers.
“For a political party like Umno, it must be seen as a ‘healthy’ development when a ‘boil’ (bisul) on its body has been removed,” said Kartini, a deputy director of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Ethnic Research Institute.
Power to name candidates
Analysts noted that under the current arrangement, Zahid’s strength as Umno president lies in his powers to sign the final appointment letters for the party’s GE15 candidates.
Shazwan said Ismail Sabri’s refusal to bow to pressure from Umno could see Zahid flexing his powers as a “last resort” to influence the party’s grassroots.
“I think if the prime minister dithers on Umno’s demands, he (Zahid) can choose to do that, but that will be ammunition for last resort with repercussions impacting the Umno factions,” he said.
Last weekend, Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan had summoned all division leaders for an “urgent meeting” led by Zahid at the party’s headquarters, where there were rumours of leaders attending under duress as anyone absent would purportedly see them left out of BN’s election candidate list.
Ismail Sabri, who was absent from the meeting, later said those in attendance only discussed matters on strengthening the party ahead of GE15, and he claimed no knowledge of any calls for snap polls.
Minimum impact on the opposition
Meanwhile, analysts also said that Najib’s SRC final verdict is unlikely to have a major impact on swaying support for Pakatan Harapan, which had swept into federal power during GE14 through campaigning against the 1MDB scandal.
Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian said Harapan has failed to move on from 1MDB and Najib since 2018, despite most Malaysians having done so.
“Harapan has to articulate its own unity and cohesiveness, in addition to convincing voters that it can address the problems that plagued it during its short stint in government.
“More critically, Harapan needs to find ways to connect with Malay voters ahead of GE15. If it fails to do so, it will just be reliant on urban, non-Malay support - hardly a convincing position to attempt at winning the country,” he said.
Ibrahim also said while Najib’s incarceration could improve voter turnout among Harapan’s supporters, who had cited fatigue and apathy due to developments following GE14, there remains no guarantee of much-needed Malay support to defend the seats they won in 2018, let alone win new ones.
On the same note, political analyst Azmi Hassan said in claiming victory for sending Najib to jail, the Federal Court’s verdict was “anticlimactic” for Harapan in contrast to the original conviction in the High Court several years ago.
“So for Harapan to once again use Najib’s issue, maybe they will not get the same strong support.
“For them to repeat the 1MDB issue would be an anti-climax and not give any added advantage. On the other hand, the added advantage would be to Umno and BN with one less liability to answer for,” he explained.
Ismail Sabri previously said the Umno-led federal government must address recent scandals, including the RM6 billion littoral combat ship (LCS) deal, before going into GE15 to avoid the matter blowing up like the 1MDB scandal. - Mkini
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