Pakistan Breaking Up Already - Khyber Pakhtun-Khwa Declares 'Islamic Emirate'.

 Another bomb exploded in a mosque in Kabul (Afghanistan) yesterday evening and they are still counting the dead and injured (around 10 killed, about 27 injured). 

I was recently listening to an Israeli academic (did not get his name) who is an expert on South Asia including Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.  He made a simple observation about Afghanistan - about why they are constantly fighting and killing each other. Their country is made up of different races and language groups. The Baloch, the Pashtuns, the Hazaras and the others all speak different languages. Hence they hate each other and fight and kill each other. 

In my own view this will not stop until they 1. become civilised 2. Afghanistan breaks up into smaller parts or 3. one group completely kills off the other groups (ethnic cleansing).

Then the Israeli guy said the same situation exists in India. India is also made up of different language groups and races who basically dislike each other. However the Indians do not kill each other as much because English is the official language and English has become a uniting factor in India. (This is what the guy said). India has no national language. Indian Members of Parliament use English freely in Parliamentary debate.   (If you have time you can listen to Indian MP Shashi Tharoor let fly with his bombastic English in the Indian Parliament here :  https://youtu.be/Lz4ZVR-2RjE).

Yet there are tensions building up in India. (Or they have never really disappeared). The Hindutva ideology (Hindu nationalism) of the ruling BJP government is trying to make Hindi the de facto national language of India. This does not go down well with other parts of India especially in southern India where Tamil Nadu, Kerala and other southern states reject this suggested Hindi dominance. Plus Hindi is spoken by a minority in India. Tamil Nadu for example is the most industrialised state in India and contributes the biggest surplus to New Delhi. For the past few decades substantial numbers of migrant workers and professionals from all over India (including the Hindi speaking states) migrated to Tamil Nadu in search of opportunities.  Recently a Tamil politician caused an uproar in India when he suggested that Tamil Nadu become an independent country!!

Then there is Pakistan. Pakistan suffers exactly the same problems as Afghanistan and India. Pakistan too is made up of different races and language groups who cannot get along with each other. The Baloch, the Pashtuns, the Sindhis and the super-dominant Punjabis all seem to be pulling in different directions.

A major event has taken place in Pakistan - after the pullout of the Americans from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Imran Khan government. The 35 million Pashtun people many of whom live in the Khyber Pakhtun-Khwa area or KPK are sympathetic to the Pakistani Taliban (aka Tehreeki Taliban Pakistan) which has now declared the KPK as an 'Islamic Emirate'.   Here is some news :  

 

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) regaining foothold
• no meaningful official response from Pakistani authorities so far
• social media shows TTP moving freely in the province. 
• People being forced to pay financial tribute (taxation) to TTP
• TTP in some parts of KPK has become parallel administration
• social media shows Pakistan army officers...under TTP arrest

• Pakistan appears completely helpless in the face of TTP

• TTP’s core demand to regain political control of Khyber area
• TTP wants to create an “Islamic Emirates” inside Pakistan

Noor Wali Mehsud, head of TTP, united various factions under his command.
resurgence of TTP attacks in Pakistan, killing 100 security personnel in 2021-22. 
3,000-4,000 TTP fighters, “largest component” of foreign fighters in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has many Taliban sympathizers

• precarious economy, US withdrawal means Pakistan military ops  unlikely 
• Pakistan adopted ‘soft approach’
  
• In July, Pakistani delegation visited Kabul to meet TTP leader 
• delegation failed to convince Noor Wali Mehsud.
• TTP senses Pakistan's current weak position
• has decided to establish itself in Pakistan  
  

My Comments : 

In this map here the red line shows the overlapping territories in both Pakistan and Afghanistan  which are populated by the Pushtun people:

TTP, Taliban sympathisers in Pakistan etc means just one thing - the Pashtun people. There are about 30-35 million Pashtuns in Pakistan (where they are a small minority in a population of 235 million) versus only 15 million Pashtuns across the border in Afghanistan where they form the largest group of Afghanistan's 40 million population.

Common sense (and politics) dictates that if the Pakistani and Afghan Pashtuns unite/merge, they can create a a country with 40-50 million Pashtuns. 

So Pakistan will break up. Unless they all learn to speak English. Which is not going to happen either.

So let the fighting begin (or continue).

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.