Time Running Out, The Pressure Is Increasing

This morning there was sudden news of yet another sudden Umno meeting called suddenly by the now increasingly desperate president Zahid Hamidi. With the recent antics in Court  taking Najib  closer to that Bamboo River Resort, Zahid too is approaching "panic mode" because his own corruption trials are also ongoing.

The news has reported that only 50 (or less) of the 191 UMNO division heads even agreed to come for the sudden meeting. But after receiving warnings, about 20 more division heads agreed to attend with the final tally at just above 70 division heads. And not all among the 70+ were in support of the president. Tajuddin of Pasir Salak was right that the president has very little support in Umno.

It is also more important to see who are the 120 Umno division heads who did not attend Zahid's sudden meeting. One glaring absence was Ismail Sabri the prime minister. It was not reported if Hishamuddin Hussein Onn (H2O) attended.

The question is where does Ismail Sabri get the vitamins to keep ignoring the party president's summons. This is not the first time that Ismail Sabri has not attended an Umno  meeting called by Zahid.

But if the treasure cave does not want to come to Ali Baba then Ali Baba will have to go to the treasure cave. So the latest news is (around 7PM just now) both Zahid and Najib rushed over to Putrajaya to meet Ismail Sabri at Sri Perdana. The rest of the 70 or so Umno heads were still hanging around the Umno building. Ismail Sabri may offer them tea but what will they offer Sabri?

So what was discussed? The earlier news (more plausible) is that the president (and Najib) want Ismail Sabri to call for general elections. But Ismail Sabri is not listening to the party president. Why? And so who is Ismail listening to then?

The later news (which sounds ridiculous but considering their desperation is also plausible) is that they want the prime minister to intervene with the Courts and get Najib an extra three months in his trial. If this is true it is proof enough that these folks are really dumb. Such a thing is not likely to happen at all. Sabri might be many things but suicidal he is not.  

Now lets cut to the chase. Najib has already been found guilty twice in the SRC case. Anticipating that the Federal Court upholds the verdict then it is curtains for Najib. Once Najib is taken out of the equation the entire coastline of the Umno party will change. Zahid is a non-entity, both in Umno as well as in Barisan Nasional. No one in Umno will even miss him. Or Najib either. This is a party that can forget its  leaders very quickly.

The party will not be having its party elections until after the General Elections. Considering that Ismail Sabri has withstood so much pressure to call for  the General Elections it is quite certain that the General Elections will not be held until full term expiry next year. (My view is if both Najib and Zahid are no more around, and some restructuring is done inside Umno, only then will the GE be held earlier than full term). But if Zahid is no more around (and Najib too) who exactly will determine that date? And who will be in charge of issuing the surat watikah for UMNO's candidates for  the general elections? Talk is it will be decided by Tun.

What about Ismail Sabri? Sabri will be PM until the next GE. Of course he has to resign when the GE is called. Period.

Who will be the next PM? Before that who will win the general elections? One theory is that there will be an electoral pact between Umno and Bersatu. Bersatu (with 38 seats now) and UMNO (with 30+ seats) will not field candidates against each other.  So it will be UMNO vs PH and Bersatu vs PH in Malay majority seats.  Pas will be cut loose.  This pact / combo is expected to win around 60 - 70 seats for UMNO/Bersatu in the Peninsula alone. There are 166 seats on the Peninsula.  Plus help from the  GPS with the 31 seats in Sarawak and the 25 seats in Sabah (UMNO, Bersatu and Warisan if they join the pact) then UMNO/Bersatu will be back in power.  But the majority may not be big.

At the State level it will be a mixture, much like the situation now. It will not be easy for the parties to win huge majorities.  

The giant in PH will be DAP (they can possibly do better than the 42 seats they have now) but PKR will not do as well as they did in 2018. Unless Rafizi Ramli takes over the PKR party.  It will be good for the DAP to explore further with Umno (and Bersatu). Maybe a unity government? But dont waste time talking to Zahid.

So who will be the PM? That will be the president of Umno (unless Bersatu wins more seats than Umno which at this point seems unlikely).  As it is now only H2O and Tok Mat have some standing in the party. Talk is Tok Mat does not have enough grassroots support. That leaves H2O. Plus the aristocrats and the oligarchy favour H2O.

But no matter UMNO, Bersatu, BN or whoever will the policies change? They will not. We are still doomed. The Malays will be  doomed first. (A Jawatan Kosong ad for a supermarket says 'SPM, mesti tahu membaca dan menulis'). It implies that there are SPM leavers who cannot read and write. The UPSR, PMR and PT3 have been abolished. In time the SPM too may be abolished. Not only will children ponteng sekolah but the teachers will skip classes as well. Will the Navy become fully invisible soon?

Everyone wants to know who will be the next PM. No one is asking where will we and  our children be five years from now? Not even the prime minister(s).      

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.