Is the ‘green wave’ irreversible?

 

The leadership of Perikatan Nasional (PN) was thoroughly convinced it would form a government after the Nov 19 election, believing it had Umno and Sarawak’s GPS support.

However, these jubilations were shattered when Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi brought his 30 MPs-elect to meet Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan, and joined the “unity” coalition.

For Muhyiddin Yassin and Abdul Hadi Awang, this was the ultimate act of betrayal that is still generating rage and anger from within PAS today, as witnessed in the Dewan Rakyat on the first day of sitting.

The PN coalition desecrated Umno in the Malay heartlands, winning 74 seats, mostly from Umno. Many pundits expected Bersatu to be wiped out, based on the Johor state election results. Bersatu won 31 seats, one more than Umno. The performance of PAS surprised many, as it won a staggering 43 seats, up 25 from the last general election.

This was branded as a “green wave”. The Malay-supremacy rhetoric and racist hate speech scared the Malay establishment to the point even members of the monarchy were alarmed. Perak’s Sultan Nazrin warned that action would be taken against those who propagate extreme views on ethnicity.

Initially, PAS’s electoral success looked like a rise in support for political Islam. This is certainly how PAS president Hadi wished to portray the rise in support for PAS. The trend was repeated in the Padang Serai by-election, where PN’s Azman Nasrudin, of Bersatu, won with a 16,260 vote majority on December 7.

However, during the last general election PAS ran under the PN banner, taking advantage of Muhyiddin’s popularity. Thus, arguably many seats won by PAS were because voters were supporting Muhyiddin’s approach to clean government during the election campaign, as opposed to Umno which was being painted as the party of corruption. Even Umno candidates like Khairy Jamaluddin, contesting in the Pakatan stronghold of Sungai Buloh, used his media coverage to paint the Umno leadership as corrupt.

Within the Malay heartlands where Umno held most of their seats, voters had no other party to turn to, but PAS. Umno became a tainted party, with PN campaigning very well on this issue.

Although PAS is now the largest political party in Parliament, in terms of national aggregate vote, the party ranked behind Umno, PKR, and the DAP in popular vote.

What won seats for PAS was the youth vote within many rural constituencies. This should have been expected where the education system heavily promotes Islam. In addition, PAS has built up an Islamic education network, building upon family-run madrasahs, especially within the north and east coast of the country. When the education system promotes Islam, who would Malay students be expected to vote for? A party that supports Islam.

There was not a massive surge of support for political Islam coming out of the Malay heartlands. That is perhaps wrongly interpreting the results. It was about teaching Umno a lesson. However, Malay politics is extremely paradoxical. Although Zahid was painted as corrupt and evil during the election campaign, he is now one of the two deputy prime ministers.

PAS over the years has been very shrewd in selecting their political allies. This time it was no different. Five years from now is an eternity in politics and no one knows whether the PAS-Bersatu nexus will remain intact. There is even a remote possibility of Bersatu jumping ship and joining the unity government.

Based upon history, PAS is now at a peak in electoral support. Was this gained on the premise of political Islam, or was this gained on dissatisfaction with Umno that PN took advantage of? If the first premise is correct, then in the next election, many PAS gains outside their traditional areas of support will be lost.

How much the PAS vote will wane next election will depend upon a complexity of factors. These include the performance of Anwar and his unity government, the persona he adopts, the cohesion of Umno, and the public rhetoric of the PAS leadership.

PAS is currently under the influence of the hard-line ulama. All of the moderates left to form Amanah, almost a decade ago. With Hadi’s political career not far from its end, the rhetoric of the new leadership will be very important in future electoral success.

Amanah, which lost three seats during the last general election, now has eight seats in the Dewan Rakyat. However, Amanah still gained 884,284 popular votes in a campaign that basically side-lined the party. Amanah is the natural party to reach out and engage the Muslim youth.

Needless to say, PAS is here to stay. PAS is a massively entrenched organisation within the heartlands, controlling mosques, schools, and community centres. Many rural communities are PAS communities. Consequently, there will always be PAS within Malaysian politics.

PAS is now the single voice of Islam in the political scene. They currently occupy this space unchallenged. The key for any adversary, is to present glimpses of Islam that will appeal. With the thorough job PAS has done in the heartlands, this will be a task that will take decades. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.