Padang Serai: BN-Harapan struggles with voters' confusion, PN confident of gains

 

When the electoral process in the Padang Serai parliamentary seat was postponed following the death of Pakatan Harapan's candidate and incumbent M Karupaiya, it provided space to test how strong the Perikatan Nasional (PN) wave has become.

PN made great gains in GE15, swooping all parliamentary seats in the northern states of Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu and most of the parliamentary seats in Kedah.

However, they still won fewer seats compared to Pakatan Harapan and ultimately, despite a hung Parliament, Harapan managed to come together with BN and other parties from Sabah and Sarawak to uplift Anwar Ibrahim as the prime minister.

As the Padang Serai campaign commences under these circumstances, all eyes are on this by-election as a gauge of support for the newly formed federal government as well as the PN wave.

Throughout the campaign, it seems PN as the opposition had a more sensational one that appears to be a breath of fresh air to voters while the BN-Harapan front is still struggling to convey the new cooperation to their supporters.

BN-Harapan is seen to be looking for their rhythm as they introduce new rakyat-friendly policies, especially on the cost of living.

Harapan also has its own challenge of convincing its supporters of the new cooperation with its former opponent BN.

Pakatan Harapan's candidate Mohamad Sofee Razak

At the same time, BN is working hard to clear its supporters' confusion over the withdrawal of its candidate C Sivarraajh to pave the way for Harapan's candidate Mohamad Sofee Razak.

Sivarraajh admitted in a press conference yesterday that the voters are still not clear about the situation and he urged BN supporters to vote for Harapan.

It clearly signals that, with less than 24 hours to go before polling, it is difficult for BN to convey this message to supporters.

BN’s C Sivarraajh (left) on the campaign trail

The situation is expected to become more difficult as Sivarraajh's name will still appear on the ballot paper tomorrow.

Encouraging response for PN

Malaysiakini's observations found that throughout the campaign, PN's cluster ceramah attracted more voters compared to BN-Harapan.

PN's campaign programmes which appear to be targeted at certain demographics, in particular young voters, seem to have received a rather encouraging response.

PN supporters in Padang Serai

PN’s mega ceramah was attended by thousands with a lively atmosphere among the crowd, especially when it featured Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor as well as PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin.

These factors give an early indication that the PN wave, which won them 13 parliamentary seats in Kedah, has already affected Padang Serai.

However, it must be noted that crowd size is not a reliable indicator of who's leading in the race, as those who attended the ceramah may not go out to vote in the end.

Apart from that, the candidates themselves also play an important role in deciding their fate tomorrow.

PN's candidate Azman Nasrudin (right)

PN's candidate Azman Nasrudin has the advantage of being an exco of the Kedah government and the Lunas assemblyperson who has served that area since 2013.

Despite being labelled as a "traitor" after leaving his original party PKR, it does not seem to have interfered with his campaign.

Sofee seen as underdog

Meanwhile, Sofee is a fresh-faced candidate whose fate depends more on the influence of his party which has won the Padang Serai seat in the past three terms.

Karupaiya, who died on Nov 16, had won the seat in GE14 with a majority of 8,813 votes against PAS and BN.

But that majority can no longer be seen as a gauge after many Harapan strongholds fell to PN in GE15.

Compared to PN's Azman, Sofee is seen as the "underdog" candidate despite the assumption that Harapan can now rely on BN votes.

This is especially as BN appears to have lost a lot of support as seen with the coalition's disastrous showing in GE15 where they only won 30 parliamentary seats.

Now, it seems that Harapan's chances will depend on the turnout and support from the non-Malay voters.

The Padang Serai constituency has 132,955 voters, with more than 40 percent who are non-Malay.

Among the campaigning coloured by racial and religious sentiments, things would certainly be easier for Harapan if BN manages to turn its voters to support Sofee.

On the flip side, PN of course wants to further strengthen its support from Malay voters, which has been the approach of its campaign so far.

Whatever the outcome tomorrow, the Padang Serai results will be an indicator of how the BN-Harapan cooperation should plan for the future.

If Harapan succeeds, it will boost their position in the Dewan Rakyat but if it is the other way around, Azman's victory can at least be a consolation for PN who failed to capture Putrajaya in GE15. - Mkini