GE15 voting trends put PH hold on Selangor under threat

 

Pakatan Harapan holds 40 of the 56 state seats in Selangor but Perikatan Nasional has made inroads by winning six parliamentary seats.

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan’s grip on power in Selangor could be under threat should voting trends in the 15th general election continue in the coming state assembly elections.

PH currently holds 40 of the 56 state assembly seats but Perikatan Nasional made inroads at the November general election winning six parliamentary seats: Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Tanjong Karang, Kapar and Kuala Langat.

Data from the Election Commission show that PN snared between 65% and 90% of new voters added to the electoral roll following the lowering of the voting age to 18.

In Kapar, previously a PH stronghold, PN won around 67.5% or 34,400 of the roughly 52,000 new voters. PH only managed to add about 5,300 new voters, while BN garnered about 8,700.

In Kuala Langat, PN’s candidate from PAS won 52,867 votes compared to the 18,700 the Islamic party received in GE14.

In contrast, PH only managed to increase its vote share by 7,800 despite the fact that there were more than 35,800 new voters in the constituency. BN’s vote share went down by about 7,400.

“PN’s social media strategy and racial rhetoric made an impact, especially among first-time voters,” said Abbas Salimmi Adzmi, a youth wing leader from Amanah, a PH component party.

Even in Malay-majority parliamentary seats where PN lost, including Shah Alam, Gombak, Hulu Langat and Sepang, the coalition came in second after PH. PH’s majorities in these seats dwindled by between 10,000 to 36,000 votes.

‘Green wave’ in Selangor

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said he believes the “green wave” could help the coalition end PH’s 15-year rule in Selangor, after propelling PN to win 74 seats at the parliamentary elections.

“PN dominated social media, especially TikTok, with videos from celebrity preachers who were pro-PN,” said Mazlan.

PN hopes to win at least 30 state seats which would give it a simple majority to govern Selangor but has stopped short of naming the seats.

There are 10 state seats within the six parliamentary constituencies PN won in GE15, all with an over 70% Malay voter base.

There are also 12 other state seats throughout Selangor where Malay Muslims comprise more than 70% of voters. These seats are in the parliamentary areas of Selayang, Gombak, Hulu Langat, Bangi, Shah Alam, Kota Raja and Sepang.

In eight other state seats Malay Muslim voters make up more than 60% of the electorate. Permatang, Taman Templer, Lembah Jaya, Pandan Indah, Dusun Tua, Seri Serdang, Meru and Kota Damansara are seats which PAS, the largest party in PN by membership, has contested before.

Stopping the ‘green wave’

Abbas believes PN’s “green wave” may not have the same impact in the state polls as it did in GE15. He said PH and its new-found ally BN are now aware of PN’s social media strategy and will be ready to counter their narratives, including that the coalition has not performed in Selangor.

“The Selangor government has rolled out a slew of initiatives such as subsidised insurance and discount shopping carnivals. The state has also increased funds for existing programmes such as the senior citizens’ aid scheme, that aids middle and low-income families,” Abbas said.

Mazlan said it was possible for first-time voters who backed PN in GE15 to change their minds after seeing how the unity government has performed.

“Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s persona, (his) hard work, his credentials as a progressive Muslim leader and how he goes down to the ground to pray with different people on Friday, can sway sentiments,” Mazlan added. - FMT