El Niño: ‘High’ haze risk despite preventive measures - think tank

 

Despite inroads made by Asean governments and plantations to mitigate haze in the region, the risk of a recurrence is predicted to be high this year due to unusually dry weather.

This is according to a report released by a Singapore-based think tank today after assessing the risk of haze based on weather forecasts, government policies, and market forces.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) chairperson Simon Tay said this is the first time it issued a ‘Code Red’ since it began the Haze Outlook report five years ago, with previous years’ assessments being Code Amber (medium risk) for three years and once for Code Green (low risk).

“This is an unusual year, and the outlook reflects that our record of five years is the first red alarm,” said Tay during the Haze Outlook 2023 briefing today.

According to him, the measures taken by Asean governments to reduce air pollution have been very positive, especially in Indonesia.

“Our assessment based on both quantitative (and qualitative) research about the level of Indonesian deforestation is the lowest in 20 years,” he said.

The study took into account the government’s efforts to prevent wildfires and haze, underlining Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s commitment to improving land and resource management.

“The Indonesia and Malaysia governments have alerted us first and called attention to the risk and voiced out the problem.

“The Malaysia government has implemented no-burning plans,” said Tay, noting that Natural Resources, Environment, and Climate Change Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad has been very vocal about haze.

Chance of ‘super El Niño’

Echoing previous forecasts, SIIA said the weather is expected to be hot and dry this year due to two meteorological phenomena, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

“Currently the El Niño conditions are weak, but there is an 84 percent chance of the event exceeding moderate strength by the end of 2023, with a 25 percent chance of a ‘super El Niño’ occurring.

“That’s why we think on the weather front, there is a real risk of a severe and serious dry season and stronger than normal chance of fires,” said SIIA senior assistant director Aaron Choo.

Meanwhile, on market conditions, SIIA said there are indications such as a surge in oil palm seed sales and higher palm oil futures prices, which suggest growers are actively planting or replanting.

This raises the question of where that planting is taking place.

“Major businesses have emphasised their continued commitment to sustainability and are aiming to intensify the use of existing land rather than opening new plantations.

“They are also on guard against fires, with one firm reporting that they doubled their expenditure on fire prevention and firefighting between 2022 and 2023.

“There is less clarity and confidence about the preparedness among smaller plantation operators.

“Many of these operators sell to the ‘grey’ or leakage market and have been irresponsible with their expansion, leading to fires and haze,” the report read. - Mkini