Millions of ‘kingmaker voters’ waiting to be wooed

 

Many of those regarded as “unmotivated” are new voters who were placed on the rolls through automatic registration.

PETALING JAYA: Swinging a substantial number of “unmotivated voters” to their side may prove decisive for the rival coalitions contesting the coming state elections, says political scientist Wong Chin Huat.

Wong, of Sunway University, said this bloc of “unmotivated voters” was estimated to number about 5.5 million, based on the ballots cast at the November 2022 general election.

The size of the bloc exceeds the number of votes cast for Perikatan Nasional (4.7 million) and is second to the 5.9 million votes for Pakatan Harapan.

Based on the final results of GE15, an estimated 60% of the 5.5 million voters who abstained are from the six states going to the polls namely Selangor, Kedah, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kelantan and Terengganu.

He said the “unmotivated” were likely to include those on the electoral rolls only because of automatic voter registration carried out last year.

Wong Chin Huat.

“Based on pre-2021 figures, roughly 18% of eligible voters couldn’t be bothered to get themselves registered. We may presume them to be apolitical,” he told FMT.

“Most of them would not go to vote even after they are qualified. This explains partly why the Johor state elections in March 2022 registered a turnout of only 55%, as compared to 84% in 2018,” he said.

Lower turnout expected

The elections in March 2022 were to the state assembly only, while the May 2018 general election was to both state assemblies and Parliament.

Wong said separately-held state elections tended to have a 10-20% lower turnout than national general elections, with voters experiencing political fatigue.

“Combining these three facts, the average turnout at the coming state elections might be 55% to 60% as compared to the nationwide average of 74% in GE15,” he said.

The voter rolls in the six states have increased from 6.9 million in 2013 to 9.6 million in 2018 and to 9.78 million at present.

Wong said with a low turnout expected, he expected the kingmakers to be the “unmotivated” voters, which include a large segment of new voters, if the competing coalitions woo enough of them to support their parties.

Malay rights and Umno dissidents

He said these voters cannot be won over by Malay Proclamation champions like former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, PAS chief Abdul Hadi Awang or Perikatan Nasional head Muhyiddin Yassin with their race-baiting tactic.

“For young Malays who are not already PAS supporters before this, their votes may be swung more by Umno dissidents who have been expelled, suspended or sidelined by Umno party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi,” he said.

Wong said these include influential leaders like Khairy Jamaluddin, Shahril Hamdan, Hishamuddin Hussein, Noh Omar and Annuar Musa.

“There is a real risk that Umno may be severely punished by those who are anti-Zahid amongst Umno supporters and Malay swing voters,” he said.

“The best thing for Umno to do is to perform well in government, serve the constituents and champion their issues as best as possible, instead of picking fights with ex-comrades,” he said.

Political fatigue

Wong said as Malaysians are generally suffering from political fatigue, the rival parties will surely face a herculean task to excite them enough to convince them to head for the polls.

“It does not help that election dates are not announced early and out-of-state voters still have to travel home to vote,” Wong said. He criticised the federal government for not being innovative to make voting more convenient and less costly for voters.

“The rival coalitions need to excite voters with positive goals, such as how their votes can make the states or Malaysia better, or be more prepared to face challenges and crises. Negative campaigns against their opponents may not be as effective as in the past,” he said. - FMT