One step forwards, two steps back

Why can’t the Umno people see this? They need the non-Malays to retain the government. Maybe if they can get 70% of the Malays on their side then they don’t need the non-Malays. But they can’t get 70% of the Malays to support them. At best maybe 55%, that is all. So they need the non-Malays. But what they are doing merely pushes the non-Malays farther and farther away.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Remember, yesterday, I wrote an article called ‘You need brains to do it’? Well, again, Umno has proven me correct. Their people just don’t have enough brains. They are like the Keystone Cops, shooting themselves in their feet and bumbling every step of the way.

Take the Damansara Utama Methodist Church (DUMC) matter as an example. PERKASA and the Malaysian Muslim Lawyers Association (MMLA) have now also joined the fray. So it looks like every man and his dog has jumped onto the bandwagon.

Good!

Now, if I were Umno, I would instruct all our people to stay out of this fiasco of major proportions. This is going to be a very explosive issue. So let DAP and PAS fight it out. Chances are Hasan Ali would help do more damage by defending his actions, by defending JAIS, by defending Islam, and by offering to resign for the sake of defending Islam.

Hasan Ali will become a hero for standing up for his principles while sacrificing himself and his political career. Hasan Ali will be a martyr. And this will become a problem for Pakatan Rakyat.

This is a sure recipe for a split between DAP and PAS. This will be just like the Terengganu ISD of ten years ago, which saw DAP leaving Barisan Alternatif and which resulted in the opposition getting slaughtered in the 2004 general election.

JAIS made the allegation that DUMC is converting Muslims to Christianity. So the accuser must prove the allegation. DUMC need do nothing. The onus is on JAIS to prove what they allege.

If JAIS or JAKIM brings out statistics to prove that 100,000 or 500,000 Malays have now become Christians (as what the Perak Mufit alleged) then this will backfire on Umno. Umno will lose face -- and, in Asia, face is everything and is very important.

Politics is all about face. Never underestimate the power of face. It is very important to me and I will defend my face even if I have to go back to Malaysia and serve some time in jail to ‘save face’. (Unfortunately my lawyers, friends, family, and even the Malaysian government, profusely refuse to agree to this even though I have communicated this wish to Bukit Aman).

If JAIS or JAKIM can’t reveal the ‘alarming’ statistics, then the government will also lose face. So, keep quiet you are damned and bring out the statistics you are also damned. Either way, damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Umno has painted itself into a corner on this one and with so many others, in particular PERKASA, taking up this issue they will be hard-pressed in getting out of this dicey situation.

Umno should have maintained an elegant silence. Let the opposition fight it out amongst themselves. Now that Umno, PERKASA, et al, are involved, this will force DAP and PAS to close ranks.

Yes, that’s right, DAP and PAS will now unite in the face of the onslaught by Umno and its minions. Now it is Pakatan versus Barisan. And Pakatan will have to speak as one voice on this DUMC issue.

Of course, this exercise may help swing back some Malay support for Umno. Certainly some Malays would get upset with what they see as the opposition’s compromise on the matter. So these Malays would abandon the opposition and go back to Barisan.

But how many Malays are we talking about? For every Malay that swings back to Barisan, five would swing over to the opposition.

We must not forget the law of diminishing returns. The Malays are already split 50:50. Ask Umno. They know this. So how many Malays can you get back? Less than 5%.

Even if you can get 5% of the Malays to swing back it will not be worth it because you will lose more than 5% non-Malays to the opposition. That is one step forwards and two steps back.

The non-Malays are very angry. And they are getting angrier and angrier by the day. Everything that Umno does just adds to this anger.

Why can’t the Umno people see this? They need the non-Malays to retain the government. Maybe if they can get 70% of the Malays on their side then they don’t need the non-Malays. But they can’t get 70% of the Malays to support them. At best maybe 55%, that is all. So they need the non-Malays. But what they are doing merely pushes the non-Malays farther and farther away.

Big mistake!

Who the hell are these political strategists in Umno? Are they that dumb or are they intentionally doing all this to weaken Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak?

Hmm…that’s a thought. Maybe they are not as dumb as we think after all. Maybe this is meant to hurt Najib. Maybe that is why Najib has remained silent. Maybe he knows if he opens his mouth then he is going to walk into a well-laid trap.

Maybe, maybe, maybe…..