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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Mahathir's Mission Impossible: Turning Mukhriz into a prime minister


Mahathir's Mission Impossible: Turning Mukhriz into a prime minister
In October 2003, Mahathir Mohamad reluctantly resigned from the post of the Prime Minister of Malaysia with mixed feelings. He was reluctant to relinquish power, he was sad that UMNO had gone weaker, he got fed up that the Malays were more or less at the same level of intellectual development despite decades of special educational opportunities.
Mahathir was also upset because he was blamed for the judiciary system losing its integrity, he was frustrated that the economy went south. But truth be told, most things in Malaysia went south under him. Above all, Mahathir was not happy that none of his sons were ready to replace him. In short, his mission was not accomplished; he was dissatisfied with almost everything he had done.
Daim left Dr M high and dry
The 86-year-old Mahathir particularly hated Daim Zainuddin for taking advantage of him being an economic fool. It was Daim who was accused of stealing all the money - enriching himself when controlling all the UMNO assets right under Mahathir’s nose. But all that would be water under the bridge for Mahathir if he succeeds in making his son Mukhriz as the Malaysian Prime Minister within his life time.
Actually, if possible, Mahathir would still want to be the prime minister until now. But he had no choice because he had made a blunder on Malaysia’s economy during the 1997-1998 economic crisis, using up all the funds and resources that Malaysia had to bail out his cronies and in particular his son’s shipping company until the country did not have enough money and the UMNO-BN government had to continue borrowing. Total national debt now stands at a whopping RM445 billion to date.
Mahathir should know the financial crisis that swept over Malaysia was of his own making but he was in a state of denial and blamed it on George Soros. Mahathir had to let Badawi undertake the impossible task of correcting the economy and ultimately shoulder the blame both for the mismanagement of the economy and the poor performance of UMNO at the ballot boxes.
In the 1999 general elections, there was an unprecedented swing in the Malay votes against Umno due to Mahathir's sacking of his deputy Anwar Ibrahim, who had been the darling of the Malay community. Mahathir knew if he continued to helm UMNO, the party would ratchet up another miserable record in the next general election, which eventually was won by a landslide by Badawi in 2004.
But at that time of his resignation in 2003, the wily Mahathir tried to distance himself from these two facts - his error of judgment over the economy in 1997-98 and the subsequent loss of Malay support due to his jailing Anwar on trumped-up sodomy charges.
Mahathir could not stop Khairy
So it was to save his own image, legacy and to secure a very important Cabinet post for Mukhriz, that Mahathir passed the baton to unthinking Badawi. Although Mahathir shed crocodile tears when he announced his quit decision at the UMNO assembly in 2003, he was actually ruthless, deliberate and sinister in his intent, which was to have Badawi blamed for the economic failures he himself started in 1998 as well as UMNO's loss of Malay support at the ballot boxes.
Still to ensure that his cronies stayed rich, he convinced Badawi to continue with whatever mega projects he had planned, without realizing that the de facto prime minister would be Khairy Jamaluddin - Badawi's son-in-law and the current Youth chief - who too thought that since he had graduated from Oxford, he should be smart enough to run the country.
Although Mahathir had some misgivings about Khairy, he was not able to correctly read the mind of the tenacious young man. Otherwise, he would never have let go the reins to Badawi. Khairy lost no time dismantling Mahathir's dream projects including the crooked bridge to Singapore, making him so angry that he had no choice but to plot and scheme Badawi's removal. In the end, Mahathir succeeded in ousting Badawi and installing an already heavily corruption-tainted Najib Razak, whom Mahathir thought would be obedient! But it was not to be - Najib had Rosmah by his side Indeed, First Lady Rosmah Mansor has been a thorn in Mahathir's flesh!
Mahathir had a dossier on Khairy built from the young man's personal background, skills, experience, activities, his network of friends and business connections, the political leaning and views, his connection with Singapore journalists, business associates and especially Khairy’s international connections especially in the USA via his Singapore contacts. Khairy had attended attended college in Singapore and later was involved in the Avenue Capital-ECM Libra money-making scheme with Kalimullah Hassan who was the media chief of Badawi-linked ECM Libra.
Unfortunately, Mahathir failed to succeed in forcing the police to arrest Khairy on charges of being some 'foreign agent'. Why? It was because Mahathir - under the impression he was omnipotent-  had made the tactical error of having resigned first before pressing the government machinery to do his bidding!
Yes, Mahathir has regretted resigning too early, leaving several critical things undone, objectives not accomplished and the plan to put his son as PM unfinished, while dreaming at the same time of the post of Secretary-General for the United Nations.
Building a base for Mukhriz
The first step in trying to groom Mukhriz was to make sure he got appointed as the UMNO youth chief, but Mahathir's effort was of no avail when delegates chose Khairy to be their chief. With hindsight, UMNO leaders especially the hardliners realize it was a mistake. But at that time - during the 2009 UMNO internal polls - Najib had to cycle hard to placate a fuming Mahathir.
Najib appointed Mukhriz as the Deputy Minister of International trade. Till now, no visible progress has been made by Mahathir to get his son closer to the prime minister's seat. Recently, Najib replaced Shafie Apdal with Ahmad Bashah Md Hanapiah as the new Kedah UMNO chief with Mukhriz Mahathir as deputy. Mahathir had no choice but to go into a coup d’état mode in Kedah, which is his home state. So despite Najib's efforts to put his man in Kedah, Mukhriz is now the de facto UMNO liaison chief there.
But having Kedah is not good enough because Mukhriz has no real grass roots support even in Kedah, what more from the other states. There is literally zero or near zero support from the other states in the country for Mukhriz and this is the huge problem that Mahathir has not been able to solve.
Another way is to let Mukhriz team up with someone and the obvious person at the moment is Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who is also the UMNO deputy president. But it would be too obvious and Mahathir hates it when people are able to predict his moves. Notwithstanding this, time is not on Mahathir's side and his options are also limited. Mahathir can't rule Muhyiddin out but that won't stop him from looking for another short cut.
Two horses for Mukhriz to ride; who will Mahathir choose?
One big disadvantage of teaming up with Muhyiddin rather than to strike a deal with Najib is because Muhyiddin too lacks grass roots support from his own Johor state as well as the rest of the country. So, while keeping all options open, Muhyiddin will be the last resort for Mahathir. Chances are higher he use Najib to catapult Mukhriz into power.
Mahathir can be expected to make full use of the mandate given by UMNO delegates to Najib to be the final decision-maker of who qualifies to be on the list winnable candidates contesting seats in the 13th general election. Of course, Mahathir’s people will make the list. Mahathir will inform all his men and women who make it to the list to make them happy, while Najib will also inform his supporters that it was necessary to give up certain seats to the Mahathir faction to avoid splitting UMNO and also assure them that they will be duly rewarded for the sacrifice.
On his part, Mahathir will throw his support behind Najib to make sure that he will still be the UMNO president and the prime minister after the GE-13 so as not to jeopardize the chances of UMNO being defeated due to infighting and factionalism. However, in the next UMNO general assembly where UMNO elections will also be held, party insiders say the presidency is very likely to be a three-cornered-fight between Najib, Muhyiddin and Mukhriz.
Muhyiddin will 'voluntarily' withdraw from the contest and the final duel will be between Najib and Mukhriz - so this particular theory goes. Muhyiddin is not worried because whoever wins, he will be promised the deputy prime minster's post once again. He has no hope of becoming the prime minister on his own standing anyway, so he would be happy with that. An interesting contrast is that of Anwar Ibrahim in the 90s. Then Anwar was mounting a challenge against Mahathir and UMNO members were gunning for an Anwar victory. This was possible because Anwar had huge grass roots support throughout the country and Malays can be expected to make their way to him now, with the Sodomy II trial over and he has been acquitted.
Can Mukhriz take on Najib? In this foray Taib Mahmud will also lend his support to Mukhriz in forming the BN government since Mahathir has been very supportive of Taib all along, while Najib foolishly tried to control Taib and Sarawak but failed from the start. The support from Taib will boost the confidence level of the Mahathir camp, whilst making Najib’s people doubt his strength in leading BN.
But is Mukhriz ready?
Yes according to Mahathir and why not? Mukhriz caught the public's eye when he continuously spoke up for his father during the 2003 to 2008 rift with Badawi and Khairy. In the  2008 GE-12, Mukhriz won the Jerlun Parliament Seat. Mukhriz has also been a member of the Cabinet for nearly 3 years now. Lastly, Mahathir also insists that Mukhriz is more intelligent than him! But others beg to disagree, pointing out that Mukhriz's only claim to intelligent life-form in his brain was his receding hairline.
Will Mahathir accomplish his mission?
Perhaps, the only strong trait that Mukhriz possesses is his shrewdness. Certainly, his rude comments and undiplomatic ways of dealing with people has not won him new fans. He has also insufficient experience, and should ideally head various Cabinet positions before becoming prime minister. No, Mukhriz is far from ready, if not incapable as well, of becoming PM on his own steam.
If Mukhriz is really more intelligent than his father, he should have been a more prominent politician by now. Mahathir is a shrewd politician but Mukhriz is not a politician – he is a shrewd person, which is bad for the country. Mahathir is not on any mission; he is just dreaming a doting father's dream.
Malaysia Chronicle

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