Slim win seen for BN in Selangor

The Barisan Nasional is optimistic of wresting control of the state but with a three-seat majority.

By Rashid Ahmad

KUALA LUMPUR: Barisan Nasional (BN) is confident of capturing Selangor but with a slim majority of 31 state seats out of 56 in the coming general election.

This assessment is based on the current sentiments of the Malay voters who are said to be fed up with the many unfulfilled promises of the Pakatan Rakyat-led state government, the fading credibility of PKR de facto chief Anwar Ibrahim and the inability of PAS to control its partners – DAP and PKR – concerning Islamic issues.

BN currently holds 21 state seats in Selangor comprising 18 (Umno), one (MCA), and one from a PKR defector.

For the coming general election, Umno will field candidates in 35 seats, MIC six, while the remaining seats go to MCA and Gerakan.

BN does not pin much hope on MCA and Gerakan to win the hearts and minds of the Chinese voters.

Sources said that of the 41 seats that Umno and MIC would be contesting, 31 were considered “winnable” while the rest are even. Thus, its majority will be only three seats.

“BN is confident of taking back Selangor with a slim majority, despite the problems that the Pakatan-led state government is facing such as unfulfilled promises and internal strife.

“The ruling coalition is expected to scrap through despite the personal efforts of BN chairman and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak in trying hard to woo the voters.

“This thin margin of victory is primarily due to factionalism and infighting in Umno, MCA and Gerakan.

“Besides, the three parties are unable to regain the confidence of the Chinese and Indian voters.

“If Umno is truly united and MIC can be sure of obtaining more than 70 percent of the Indian voters, BN can get a higher majority,” the source said.

Sleepless nights

Another source said Umno and MIC would be fielding 60 percent new faces in the 41 seats they would be contesting (35 Umno and six MIC).

He added that such a drastic move would create “sleepless nights” for the incumbents who feel that they are still “relevant” or “winnable” if chosen again. But that decision – selection of candidates –will have to come from Umno president and Selangor chief Najib Tun Razak.

“You can expect a lots of fireworks in the BN camp when the names of the new candidates are released (by Najib) come nomination day. The incumbents will definitely not want to give up their seats without valid reasons.

“They have their own reasons for wanting to stay on. Moreover, faction heads who are working from behind the scene will want to make sure that their people are fielded again, given that party elections will have to be held just after the general election.

“Umno, in whatever new form it assumes, will still be the same as the internal power play is a far more serious matter than the general election,” the source said.

Three BN camps
Several sources said the Selangor Umno leadership would field new faces with “clean record”.

“When this happens, the incumbents will be upset. They will ask the leadership, ‘Am I corrupted?’

“They will claim that after serving the people in a clean manner, why should they be replaced by unknowns?” a source said.

To complicate matters, the three Umno factions in Selangor are working hard to ensure their men –the incumbents – are picked again to defend their seats.

The heads of these three camps are said to be Sri Serdang assemblyman Satim Diman, Sungai Panjang assemblyman Dr Mohd Khir Toyo and Selangor BN liaison deputy chief Noh Omar.

“These three factions want their incumbents retained so that they can become delegates to the party elections. They hope the delegates will vote for them (the faction heads) for a post in the Umno’s supreme council,” the source said.

The source added that BN can only win more more seats in Selangor if the internal discord in PKR and PAS continues unabated.