Najib's 'pre-emptive strike' no longer a secret: Chances tilt for a GE-13 after Umno polls

For the past 12 general elections, UMNO has had the luxury of fixing the dates for the balloting at its leisure, without any qualms or worries. So supremely confident have its leaders been that the announcement of Parliament's dissolution was always made with smiling faces, a spring in the step and a sense of eager anticipation.

New aspirants for state or parliamentary seats would rush to shyly confirm their orders with their tailors, who would then start making new suits complete with the ubiquitous “songkok” to be used by their 'sure-to-be-elected' clients at the swearing-in ceremonies with the King or respective Sultan later on.

But gone are those days of a sure win, when the favorite election-time joke was that even if UMNO fielded a tree trunk, that tree trunk would be voted into Parliament. Gone are those 'good old days' for UMNO, ever since the 2008 political tsunami when the party suffered the greatest shock of its life when it nearly got kicked out from Putrajaya.

UMNO - under Prime Minister Najib Razak since 2009 - has changed and sad to say, for the worse. Najib himself has been reduced to a pile of wobbling jelly, so worried is he that UMNO's 56-year hold on the federal government will finally come to an end under his watch. And he would go down in history, not only as the last UMNO PM for Malaysia but also the one with shortest-lived tenure and the least legacy.

Facing the facts

Having been in politics for 30-over years, the 58-year-old Najib knows that there is no such thing as the best date for the 13th general election. The ideal date would be when the economy is doing well, BN component parties are strong and united, the people are happy and prosperous, UMNO and BN leaders have no scandals to answer for and the opposition parties are bickering amongst themselves.

Unfortunately, this wish-list scenario is happening but in the reverse. The opposition is more united than in 2008, scandal and controversy dog top UMNO and BN leaders. Each day, there is a new impropriety, a new greed or a new corruption like the sale of the RM1.7billion Maju Expressway revealed by PKR's Rafizi Ramli over the weekend. The people are dissatisfied and furious at the way cost of living has shot, quality of life plunged while property prices have galloped way out of reach of even the middle income groups. BN component parties are still killing each other with MCA president Chua Soi Lek incorrigible and still set on pushing his predecessor Ong Tee Keat out from MCA even with GE-13 looming. As for the economy, Najib who is also finance minister has come in for non-stop shelling for relying on statistics and a pliant Bank Negara to burnish what are believed to be sinking figures in reality.

Infighting is at an all-time high in UMNO, not only because the members sense that this could well be their last year of glory. But Najib's 'winnable list' of candidates that he dragged out from delegates at the party's annual meeting late last year is stirring up undercurrents that could explode and destroy the party anytime. Of all the BN components, it is UMNO which is the most vulnerable now. As UMNO holds the most seats, once it goes, the BN would just evaporate.

For these reasons, it is clear to pundits that the longer the GE-13 is delayed, the worse it will be for UMNO. Therefore, the earlier the better the BN's chances of winning by a simple majority. No one even thinks about a two-thirds majority for BN anymore. So if Najib is hoping for things to get better, he is just being foolish and grasping at straws. Sad to say - for Malaysia - this is precisely what Najib is.

To be fair, perhaps he knows that there is nothing he can do to make things right and it may be too late for that now. There is not enough money and not enough time to make the economy good. It is also impossible for him to resolve the bickering in UMNO and within the BN component parties or to resolve all the scandals that are engulfing UMNO-BN - especially when the biggest scandal involves him.

Only 2 options and Najib is already in a tizzy

So the next best thing that Najib can do is to trick the people and cheat some more - another sad habit developed through the years of absolute UMNO power. Basically, there are only 2 scenarios for Najib to consider and choose from. Yet, he is hard pressed to decide which. And this is the crux of the problem.

Najib is the main factor for delaying the national polls. He has always been indecisive and flip-flops are his trademark due to a lack of diligence in researching or carefully thinking out major decisions. Critics say he is a 'macro' man (a polite term for being lazy with the details), preferring to spend time on overseas official trips where he can be photographed shaking hands with top leaders and leading his business cronies to fatten the UMNO and his own gravy train.

Indeed, Najib is unsure and apprehensive about GE-13 - his biggest political call ever. Unfortunately, he has no one to turn to, because elders like Mahathir Mohamad, Abdullah Badawi or even Daim Zainuddin have their own agenda and wishes for GE-13 dates that best benefit their own factions. So Najib will continue to blow hot and cold, but basically he himself has no idea when he will hold GE-13 and this much he has already admitted. "I'm sure you can appreciate why I can't reveal it...even if I know, I got to keep the trade secret to myself," Bernama reported him as saying rather lamely a day ago.

The two possible timings for GE -13 are simple - before or after the UMNO party elections. Many of Najib's advisers have told him that a pre-emptive strike would do the trick. Prepare the ground but secretly - so as to catch everyone by surprise. Even the people in UMNO must be unaware or like Mahathir, they will start nosing around and put in plans of their own that could foil Najib's grand scheme.

Obviously, such a move would be a huge gamble and chances are high it will create confusion and backfire badly unless Najib and his advisers have done their math and calculated really well and correctly. It must be noted that a daring spirit and on-the-spur decision-making are not part of Najib's DNA make-up, so a pre-emptive strike if it comes will be a major surprise regardless of the boasting that is coming from his camp.

GE-13 after UMNO annual general assembly

If the UMNO general assembly is held first, the possibility that Najib will stay on as UMNO president is assured because he will make sure that those attending will be informed that they are on his list of 'winnable candidates' to be selected to contest for coveted state or parliamentary seats. As a result, they are sure to support him all the way. Abracadabra, magic UMNO style!

The flip side is that those who are not happy will surely sabotage UMNO when GE-13 is finally held. The UMNO power brokers too may decide to dump Najib, which is much more effective than trying to replace him with their own horse. UMNO-BN may really lose GE-13. But the saboteurs will not be affected because even if UMNO wins, they won’t be invited to join Najib to dig 'the gold' so to speak. If UMNO-BN loses, this will deprive their rivals of any advantage and evens back the UMNO playing field. Such a practice is called infighting.

Infighting is also the reason that even if UMNO-BN wins, Najib may not remain the Prime Minister nor UMNO president for long. The UMNO-BN majority will be much more reduced, and he will be attacked continuously by his enemies in UMNO until he can’t make any serious move to strengthen his position or to run the country. Najib will be too preoccupied to counter these attacks and more of his personal scandals will be exposed. In the end, he can expect to be kicked out in disgrace sooner than even Badawi was. GE-12 was held on March 8, 2008 and by October, Badawi had already been forced to accept an early retirement plan.

UMNO itself and its warlords such as Mahathir are not worried because UMNO is still in power - only Najib will not. He will be replaced, as former Finance minister Daim has already suggested - either by the current Umno No. 2 Muhyiddin Yassin or a new challenger. What Najib is hoping to do is to buy himself more time and more friends. He will go all out to be Mr Nice Guy to the UMNO warlords, to make compromises, placate and give the power brokers political deals and his enemies some financial deals. This way, Najib may complete the whole term as Prime Minister and hold the GE-13 when the current term expires.

In the meantime, more scandals will be exposed. The Felda listing may turn sour. Najib's other economic initiatives may not succeed. The MAS-AirAsia may be the next debacle. Then there is also the French hearing of his own Scorpene submarines RM570mil kickback case plus the appeal by 2 of his former bodyguards in the sensational Altantuya murder case.

With so many scandal and wrongoings, it is not GE-14 that Najib hopes to cling onto power until, but rather GE-13! This is how weak he is and his only trump card now is the 'winnable candidates list'.

GE-13 before UMNO annual general assembly

Holding the GE-13 before the UMNO annual assembly has its risks too but with proper timing, Najib could use the mood of the UMNO members and his supporters to his advantage. The NST daily reported on 24th February that the UMNO 66th anniversary would be held on 11th May 2012 at Merdeka Stadium and Najib has promised that it will be a momentous event to unite and boost UMNO’s morale and of course to convince UMNO members that he is the best person to be the president and the PM of Malaysia.

This is the time when Najib can go for a pre-emptive strike and announce the date for the GE-13 - a mere two weeks from the event. Everyone will then be caught unprepared including the opposition. Have the GE-13 first, and then hold the UMNO general assembly immediately after the GE-13. This would be Najib's double whammy. He would catch the UMNO people by another surprise. Those in UMNO who want to sabotage him won’t have enough time to put through their plans.

Therefore with swift decision, proper timing and some surprises, Najib can actually pull off the trick. Or so his strategists think. After all, his mission now is just to win, even with a simple majority in both elections. The problem is, can Najib summon the gumption to go for it? Also, since most of the details are already out in the open, available in the blogs, what element of surprise is there now in Najib's 'pre-emtpive strike'?

Gauging by the how fast things are souring for UMNO-BN, Najib may actually have no choice. Yet as each day passes, it also becomes more scary for Najib to press the 'red button' so to speak. Perhaps, the chances have begun tilting towards a GE-13 after the UMNO general assembly because unlike Badawi, Najib has armed himself with a powerful weapon - the 'winnable candidates list'. This will help him to keep in check division chieftains who are already foaming at the bit to be on the list.

Malaysia Chronicle