Najib weaker now after Umno anniversary, while Dr M's influence increases

It is finally dawning on Umno that it has painted itself into a nasty corner, thanks to the ill-advised strategy adopted by its president, Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has chosen to focus the limelight on himself and not on his party.

The rationale the 58-year-old Najib gave to Umno and the BN coalition it heads, was that both Umno and BN had become 'bad' brand names and the only way to win back voters was to build up his personal popularity. But this strategy has proved to be a huge flop.

At the recent 66th UMNO anniversary celebration in the Bukit Jalil stadum, Najib spent a huge amount of money to pull in grassroots members from all over Malaysia. Yet he could not even fill half the stadium, which has a total 100,000-strong capacity. This was in stark contrast to the Bersih 3.0 rally on April 28, where without any cash incentives or free transport, 250,000 Malaysians from all walks of life thronged the vicinity of the Dataran Merdeka to demand that Najib clean up the country's highly dubious electoral process.

Worst was yet to come. Umno leaders expecting to celebrate 66 years of the party's achievements were shocked when these were sidelined and a video tape extolling Najib's 'greatness' and portraying him as the 'best' Umno leader surpassing all the other prime ministers, was shown instead to the Bukit Jalil crowd.

Fluid and still-changing alliances within Umno

What were the thoughts that ran through former premier Mahathir Mohamad's mind when he watched the tape is hard to fathom. But put on a smile and brave face, Mahathir must. For like the rest in Umno and BN, he cannot admit he has been taken for a ride and bet on a dud.

Also, given the fluid nature of political allegiance within Umno, one can only say that as of now, Najib can count on Mahathir's support because the older man needs him for political expediency. So too does former Finance minister Daim Zainuddin.

For if Pakatan Rakyat and Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim were to come to power, the chains of wealth built through 22-years of Umno's near absolute power and corruption would immediately crumble.

So while there are now clearly two main groups in Umno - those who support Najib and those who don't - not all who support Najib like him. For example, Mahathir and others who do not like Najib see him as a weak and self-aggrandizing leader.

They must be seething with what little Najib has done so far and his deliberate downgrading of Umno and BN to prioritize his own personal popularity. It is a major disappointment that Najib has not done anything significant to ensure Umno’s survival or to its reputation.

Indeed, the party’s reputation needs major repairing, having been dented by various scandals one after another with none having been resolved, including Najib's own Scorpene submarines illegal commissions deal.

Despite the smiles and applause for each other, the cracks could easily be seen from the speech given by Najib's deputy Muhyiddin Yassin. In his speech to the Bukit Jalil crowd, Muhyiddin stressed Mahathir’s presence and lauded the veteran leader, drawing roaring applause from the audience. It was a clear a snub to Najib and a signal to Mahathir to consider new alliances rather just tie himself up with Najib.

Unprecedented infighting

The recent speculation that Najib is going to replace most of the present Chief Ministers with new faces is another sore point. Most of the old faces are Mahathir’s men and a few are former premier Abdullah Badawi’s. This group of Chief Ministers are no pushovers and have already started their own ballgame rolling rather than wait for Najib.

For example, Idris Jusoh the ex-Menteri Besar of Terengganu was in a jovial and confident mood when he stood on the podium to give encouragement to the crowd in the stadium as if Najib had already assured him of the MB's post after GE-13. His nemesis Ahmad Said, the current chief minister, could not be seen anywhere on the podium. But then, Ahmad Said has an independent streak and won't take defeat lying down.

However the chips fall, as infighting mounts and with his prestige low, Najib won’t be able to have things his own way unless he is prepared for an open revolt and jeopardizing Umno-BN chances to win.

No new direction for Umno, only rhetoric and self-praise

Pundits say unless Najib unveils new visions and plans, Umno-BN will perform badly due to its own infighting, bickering, sabotaging and backstabbing. The fate Najib faces will then be determined by the outcome of the GE-13.

"It is sad to see Umno leaders unable to chart a new direction for their party. The facts are so visible. Umno is an aging party, with no new vision but just empty rhetoric. There is no synergy with other BN components or engagement with civil society," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

"What the gathering did show is the return of Mahathir. Due to Najib's political weakness, he will have to play according to Mahathir's tune while the other factions will also try to strike a deal with Mahathir to convince him not to support Najib anymore.

Malaysia Chronicle