Hints on election date

The Budget 2013 has again reflected Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's cautiousness. He wishes to ensure that majority of people give their support to the BN coalition before dissolving the Parliament.

The Budget has taken care of all. In addition to the 1.4 million of civil servants who will be receiving a bonus of one and a half months salary, and middle-income earners who are expected to enjoy an individual income tax rate reduction by 1%, the most impressive point would be the "family package" which would benefit every family member.

Children studying in primary and secondary schools will receive a Schooling Assistance of RM100, children in institutions of higher learning (IPT) and at pre-university level will receive the RM250 1Malaysia Book Voucher, and children who are working but earning less than RM2,000 or below per month will receive a RM200 assistance while those learning RM3,000 and below will get a one-off rebate of RM200 when they purchase one unit of 3G smartphone from authorised dealers. Meanwhile, the father can enjoy a higher tax relief on the children’s higher education, which has been increased from RM4,000 per person to RM6,000, the mother enjoys free mammogram examination, and the grandparents can also enjoy a reduction on the processing fee of a five-year passport and a 50% discount on KTM Komuter fares. For those whose household earning is RM3,000 and below, they are even eligible for a RM500 assistance.

Also, small traders, kindergarten and nursery operators, Bumiputra companies, the oil and gas industry, the tourism and people in Sabah and Sarawak have all been taken care of. From individuals to industries and groups, it seems that the Budget has missed no one out.

From the cash distribution timetable, it is estimated that the general election is most likely to fall in March next year. The bonus for civil servants would be distributed in December this year and January next year, the RM100 Schooling Assistance, RM250 1Malaysia Book Voucher, RM500 and RM200 aid assistance would be distributed in January next year. The minimum wage policy will also be put into effect starting from January 1. Therefore, early next year will be the feel good peak period, which is most suitable for the general election.

If the cash distribution work can be finished by January, the general election can then be held the earliest in end of January, or it will have to wait until March, after the Chinese New Year. However, it would not be delayed until April, as the effect of cash distribution might fade or disappear.

It is the wishful thinking of Najib, but he should not neglect that the middle class and swing voters might have a different thought. For example, some people might be worried that the treasury revenue is estimated to increase only by 0.7% while the expenditure increases by RM18.8 billion, including the administrative expenses that have been increased year-by-year, accounting for 80% of the total expenses. Although the fiscal deficit has been reduced to 4%, the debt has increased from 51.8% to 53.7%.

Moreover, government departments have always spent unwisely and have to ask for a supplementary budget every year. For example, the Finance Ministry had sought for a supplementary budget of RM13.79 billion in June this year.

It is also a question whether one-off aids can really alleviate the people's living burden, particularly prices have been continuously rising. The RM500 aid means only RM41.67 for each month. Therefore, the right way is to increase the disposable income.

The government has to take care of the feelings of too many people and thus, the measureas taken are not strong enough. For example, increasing the Real Property Gain Tax by only 5% is not enough to curb speculation.

Could the budget for development programmes and projects support the economic growth after being reduced to 20%? It is a warning to have a 35% shrink of manufacturing investment in the second quarter this year.

Other events will also weaken the good feelings, such as the forthcoming Auditor-General's Report might reveal some frauds. They might also lose votes if laws and orders are not improved.

In addition, various social protest movements, including the Pengerang anti-Rapid movements, will also affect the election deployment.

The Budget has sounded the election bugle. Do you still have passion for it?

-Sin Chew Daily