Malaysian Psephology: Kapar 2008

Prashun Dutt, The Sun Daily

FROM 1995 to 2008, the number of registered voters (electorate) had grown by over 66% from 67,555 to 112,224. This indicates a substantial increase of 44,669 voters over this 13-year period, making Kapar among the largest Parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia.

In terms of ethnic breakdown, as of March 2008, Malays constituted 49.3% of the Kapar electorate, while Chinese made up 37.6%, Indians 12.6% and the rest less than 0.5%.

Despite the sizeable growth of the electorate, the percentage of voting has remained consistently high throughout these 13 years (from 73% to 78%).

Ballot papers issued had increased by nearly 77% from 49,595 (1995) to 87,644 (2008), confirming that the increasing number of registered voters in Kapar remained similarly committed towards casting their votes.

Despite growth in electoral size, the percentage voting support for Barisan Nasional (represented by MIC) has been declining or inconsistent since the resounding 67.1% support garnered by MIC's G. Leelavathi in 1995.

Prominent MIC leader Datin Komala Devi received 49.6% of the votes in 1999, overcoming the challenge by PAS and avoiding a closer contest due to a split in opposition ranks. She retained the seat in 2004, this time brushing off a PKR challenge, with 57.9% support and a convincing margin of 14,588 votes.

In 2008, however, she lost the seat by a similarly convincing margin of 12,297 votes to PKR's Manikavasagam Sundaram. PKR wrested the seat with 55.3% of the votes versus 41.2% polled by BN-MIC.

While the gap in votes polled by the two candidates was around 15%, this seat witnessed one of the most noticeable "swing factors" of 2008.

From losing the seat by 14,588 votes in 2004, PKR worked the ground and connected adequately with at least an additional 1/3 of the electorate, including the new entrants in the constituency, besides retaining most of their own support base.

Considering all the relevant contributing factors – the 8,039 growth in size of electorate (from 2004 to 2008), the number of additional 11,000 plus ballots in the box (in 2008 compared to 2004), and the difference in voting support – the swing factor was over 24% in the final touchdown.

The constituency has a mix of well-settled urbanites, new townships and some rural areas. With ethnic block-voting trends declining in Malaysia, large electorate constituencies having different socio-economic clusters will require sincere constructive groundwork by all candidates.

However, at the time of print, theSun was yet to obtain comments from both parties regarding their specific plans for this constituency.