PIPE DREAM: Najib, Umno pin GE13 hopes on 127 Malay, Bumi-majority seats

The general election is coming. The atmosphere, however, is different this time. The FBM KLCI drastically plunged, as investors cashed in their positions ahead of the general election.

Investors are worried about the uncertainty of the election. The index once hit an intra-day low of 1,631.40, down 45.04 points on Monday and plunged 33.51 points to near the psychological important 1,600 level the next day.

Investors are worried that once the BN loses the power, there might be changes to the contracts and projects approved and issued by the government, particularly huge projects like the MRT and the recently inked West Coast Highway, causing a drastic plunge in political, banking and blue chip stocks.

There is another argument saying that some people are raising general election funds and thus, try to push up stocks to gain profit. Therefore, it would be better for small stock players to wait and see, to avoid becoming the victims of big players.

It is the stock market's concern about the election.

Meanwhile, entrepreneurs and politicians also have their worries. Would the Pakatan Rakyat change the entrepreneur-friendly policies if it takes over the office? As every new sovereign brings his own courtiers, many people will lose their jobs for sure.

Mixed constituencies the king maker

Back to reality, the unpredictable voting tendency is more agonizing.

Based on last election's voter structure, there are 127 Malay- and Bumiputera-majority parliamentary constituencies, 43 Chinese-majority constituencies and 52 mixed constituencies. The Chinese has taken a very clear stand while the number of Indian voters is small. However, there is no definite answer for how serious is the split of Malay votes.

According to polling expert Datuk Seri Prof Syed Arabi Idid of the International Islamic University, mixed constituencies would be the most intense competition between the BN and the Pakatan Rakyat as each has 30% of basic support, while the remaining 40% swing voters will be the key that decides the results.

127 Malay & Bumi-majority seats may not be enough to save Umno or Najib

Based on the current trend, the BN has made too many mistakes and most swing voters actually tend to support the Pakatan Rakyat. Even if the BN is able to win big in Malay constituencies, it would still not be able to get two-thirds of seats.

If so, Datuk Seri Najib Razak's leadership in Umno would then be challenged, just like the situation of Tunku Abdul Rahman and Tun Abdullah Badawi after the 1969 and 2008 general elections.

Anti-ruling is currently the international political trend and therefore, the BN, which has been ruling for more than 50 years, is facing a great pressure. Particularly, it has many weaknesses to be attacked.

Najib's transformation plan is unable to resist the rise of the civil society power. With endless stream of controversial issues, the BN can only try to put out fire while continuously losing its credibility.

Regime change

Another uncertainty is, Malaysia has never tried a regime change. The BN has been ruling since the independence and what would happen if the Pakatan Rakyat takes over the office? The stance of the police and military, the role of Malay rulers and the Pakatan Rakyat's level of cooperation are causes of concern.

Unlike Japan, it has seven prime ministers in seven years and its people have become accustomed to the change of government. Malaysia has only six prime ministers over the past more than 50 years and all of them are from Umno. Therefore, some people are fearful of the change of government.

There was a satire joke saying that other countries know the date of election but do not know the results. In Malaysia, however, people know the election results even before the election date is determined.

And now, there is finally a suspense and we should call it an improvement.

-Sin Chew Daily