Are Malays in Johor Ready For Anwar?

The 13th General Election is a window of opportunity seen only after 55 years. Such a golden opportunity was created due to several factors such as the advancement of the communication technology that allows information to be uploaded within seconds anywhere any time. Hence, information can no longer be censored if one has access to internet.

The second factor is the awakening of the people to the massive looting by those who walk the corridors of power.

The last but not least factor is Anwar Ibrahim who was able to forge a working coalition among PAS, DAP and PKR.

Hence, in the 12th General Election, DAP flags were flying in Malay kampongs and PAS flags in Chinese New Villages in the northern states.

For the first time in Malaysian history, Malays voted for DAP and Chinese for PAS in the northern states and this resulted in the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) losing four states in the 12th General election.

However, the political tsunami stopped in Ngeri Sembilan. Let us look at the 12th General Election score sheets in Johor to see how voters had voted to find out why this was a BN fixed deposit state; why PKR had considered Johor a frontline state since early 2010 and frequently brought Anwar to Johor until it is no longer a BN fixed deposit state?

DAP and PAS

The 5 parliamentary seats below were contested by either DAP and PAS and at least a state seat under it were contested by either PAS or DAP.

The percentage under the column “PAS/DAP” and “DAP/PAS” indicates the percentage of PAS votes as against DAP votes and DAP votes as against PAS votes respectively.

The first four parliamentary seats were contested by a Chinese if it is a DAP seat and by a Malay if it is a PAS seat. All these four areas showed similar trend. That is a large number of Chinese who voted for a DAP candidate did not vote for a PAS candidate and a large number of Malays who voted for PAS did not vote for DAP.

Hence, despite the fact that DAP contested predominantly Chinese seats, it could not win more than five seats due to a large number of Malays who voted for PAS did not vote for DAP.

This was equally true for PAS due to a large number of Chinese who voted for DAP did not vote for PAS. This revealed the real reason as to why the political tsunami failed to reach Johor.

The 5th parliamentary seat was contested by a Malay candidate from DAP. A large number of voters who voted for a Malay from DAP did not vote for a Malay from PAS.

The question is has this trend changed five years on in February 2013? If it has changed, which way has it changed?

Will all Chinese in Johor who will vote for DAP will also vote for PAS? Will all Malays in Johor who will vote for PAS will also vote for DAP? Or they have not changed?

Would it be wise to believe that the voters in Johor have changed and hence, just work on one race and then rely on the other party be it PAS or DAP to deliver votes of the other races? Or, is it simply wiser to work on all races with top priority given to swing the Malays voters?

How Johor voters had voted in the 12th General Election when faced with a Chinese candidate in both the Parliamentary and the State seat?

The two parliamentary seats below were contested by PKR and the state seat under it was contested by DAP. The percentage under the column “PKR/DAP” and “DAP/PKR” indicates the percentage of PKR votes as against DAP votes and DAP votes as against PKR votes respectively.

It is noted that PKR’s Chinese candidate secured slightly more votes from all races in Tangkak and slightly lesser votes in Paloh as compared to DAP’s Chinese candidates. Overall, if the Chinese sentiment in the 12th General Election is still applicable, there is no basis to the claim by DAP that it can secure higher (at least 5% or more) Chinese votes than a PKR Chinese candidate. In general, more Chinese dumped BN but not as many as in the northern states.

PAS and PKR

How Johor voters had voted in the 12th General Election when faced with a Malay candidate in both the Parliamentary and the State seat?

The three parliamentary seats below were contested by PKR and the state seat under it was contested by PAS. The percentage under the column “PKR/PAS” and “PAS/PKR” indicates the percentage of PKR votes as against PAS votes and PAS votes as against PKR votes respectively.

It is noted that in general, the Chinese prefer a Malay candidate from PKR. However, there were mixed results (as in Batu Pahat and Tanjung Piai) when it comes to a situation of Malays voting for both Malay candidates, either from PKR, PAS or DAP.

Conclusion

If the sentiment and behaviour of the voters in the 12th General Election continues, then DAP could not help PAS to get more Chinese votes and PAS could not help DAP to get more Malay votes in Johor. PAS have to work harder in the Chinese areas and DAP have to work harder in the Malay areas in Johor. Also, DAP’s claim that it can get higher Chinese votes (at least 5% or more) than a PKR’s Chinese candidate in Johor cannot be substantiated with the 12th General Election Chinese voters’ tendency.

It is interesting to note that if the Chinese sentiment of the 12th General Election remains, then the Johor Chinese, in general, prefers a Malay candidate from PKR but it is difficult to predict how Malays in Johor would choose. Hence, the political tendency of the Johor Malays in the 13th General Election is critical for both BN and PR.

It is the above facts that stimulated PKR to schedule Anwar frequently to the Malay heartland since the middle of 2010. Johor PKR chief and PKR vice-president Chua Jui Meng was appointed to assist him to make inroad into the Malay heartland. However, Anwar was not given the chance to speak in the initial months by the police.

He was not allowed to speak in Bukit Batu, Kulai and Rengit, Batu Pahat. However, Anwar’s persistence bore fruits as political speeches in various parts of Johor featuring him began to draw larger and larger crowds after PKR had threaten to take legal action against the local authorities and the police for abusing their power. Chua and Anwar had chiseled off BN’s fortress in Johor.

PKR wishes to seal the support of the Malays in Johor before the 13th General Election by bringing Anwar to Rengit again and probably the last in Johor. Are Malays in Johor ready for Anwar?

Steven Choong Shiau Yoon

Johor PKR Election Director