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Monday, May 6, 2013

GE13 and the 13 predictions that came true


Many are waiting for my ‘I told you so’ article. No, I am not going to write an ‘I told you so’ article. Instead, I am going to remind you of the 13 predictions that were made for the 13th General Election that came true -- although there are actually more than 13 predictions that came true.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Prediction 1: About 80% or roughly 10.4 million of the 13 million or so registered voters would come out to vote.
What did happen: About 10.5 million Malaysians came out to vote on 6th May 2013.

Prediction 2: Barisan Nasional would win more than 130 parliamentary seats but less than the 140 seats it won in the 2008 general election.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 133 parliamentary seats.

Prediction 3: Pakatan Rakyat would not win more than 100 parliamentary seats, as what the bookies predicted, but more than the 82 seats it won in the 2008 general election.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat won 89 parliamentary seats.

Prediction 4: Barisan Nasional can still form the federal government with a simple majority in Parliament even if it won just 45% of the popular votes.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional is forming the federal government with about 46-47% of the popular votes.

Prediction 5: Pakatan Rakyat would need to win at least 55% of the popular votes to see a hung parliament and about 60% or so of the popular votes to take over the federal government.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat won slightly over 51% of the popular votes and still can’t form the federal government.

Prediction 6: If Pakatan Rakyat retains Selangor there is going to be a power struggle for the post of Menteri Besar.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat still cannot decide who should be the Selangor Menteri Besar while all the other states (plus Parliament) are already swearing in their new governments.

Prediction 7: DAP would emerge the largest opposition party. 
What did happen: DAP is now the largest opposition party after winning 38 parliamentary seats versus 30 for PKR and 21 for PAS.

Prediction 8: Pakatan Rakyat would lose Kedah.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat lost Kedah.

Prediction 9: Perak is a 50:50 situation.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 31 state seats in Perak and Pakatan Rakyat won 28 (giving BN a 3-seat majority) with Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat each winning 12 of the 24 parliamentary seats (50:50).

Prediction 10: Terengganu is a 50:50 situation.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 17 state seats in Terengganu and Pakatan Rakyat won 15 (giving BN a 2-seat majority) with Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat each winning 4 of the 8 parliamentary seats (50:50).

Prediction 11: There are 165 parliamentary seats in West Malaysia and Barisan Nasional will win 83/85 with 80/82 going to Pakatan Rakyat.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 85 parliamentary seats in West Malaysia and Pakatan Rakyat won 80.

Prediction 12: There are 57 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia (including Labuan) and Barisan Nasional will win at least 45 seats and not more than 12 going to Pakatan Rakyat.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 48 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia and Pakatan Rakyat won 9.

Prediction 13: Pakatan Rakyat would see a reduced majority in Kelantan.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional increased its seats from 6 to 12 in the Kelantan State Assembly and increased its parliamentary seats from 2 to 5.

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