In the aftermath of May 5th (part 4)

Anwar’s knee-jerk reaction when the results were announced on Sunday night was that Pakatan Rakyat won 51% of the votes so this means Pakatan Rakyat won the election. In 1933, Adolf Hitler won only 43% of the votes and 33% of the seats and yet his party took power. Al Gore won 48.4% of the votes but George W. Bush took power with 47.9% of the votes. In 1969, the Alliance Party won 49% of the votes and still managed to form the government.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Democracy blackout

On May 5th, millions of Malaysians called out in a single voice that you wanted change. Change from a corrupt regime of UMNO-BN that has held on to power for more than five decades. It was a voice that was strong and clear.

You said to the UMNO-BN leaders: Enough! Enough of corruption and abuse of power! Enough of racism, bad governance and mismanagement of the nation’s wealth! Let Pakatan Rakyat take over now!

But they refused. To stay in power they cheated. They want to continue to rob from the nation.  Working hand in glove with the Election Commission they resorted to all kinds of fraud and declared themselves the winner.

By this act of cheating they turned the brightest hour in our nation's history into its darkest.

But last night YOU responded. Hundreds of thousands Malaysians from all races and walks of life, young and old – came to Stadium Kelana Jaya to show your outrage against the injustice and fraud. You showed courage and determination. You braved the traffic jams, walked kilometres and stood in the pouring rain because you believe your cause is a noble one.

You were peaceful. You showed your allegiance to the Yang diPertuan Agong and sang the national anthem with pride. You demonstrated clearly that we are a nation united as Bangsa Malaysia.

Some say that you gathered because you cannot accept defeat. This is a gross insult and lie. The truth is that your victory has been stolen from you.  It is they who cannot accept defeat and who have resorted to cheating to stay in power. You are on the side of truth and truth will triumph over falsehood. 

You have every right to be outraged that your vote for change has been hijacked. You have every right to feel hurt and insulted by the accusations of being ungrateful and greedy just because you voted for Pakatan.

Our mission is clear. We are no longer just campaigning. We are building a movement. We will protest against the fraud and this disgraceful act of denying the people their victory. We will bring together all Malaysians to fight to end corruption, racism and the abuse of power.

They are now playing with the fire of racism and hate-mongering and trying every means possible to intimidate you. As long as we stay united there is nothing to fear. Together we will show the illegitimate UMNO-BN government that our voice is not easy to silence. We will show them our resolve and the courage of our convictions. We will not stop until justice and victory is returned to us.

If you believe in this mission I give you my word that the Pakatan Rakyat is with you. We will stand firmly with you all the way. We will never surrender. 

Thank you,

ANWAR IBRAHIM

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Anwar Ibrahim’s statement above is interesting mainly for the reason that it is merely rhetorical but lacks details. Anwar was very vague as to what type of cheating he was referring to. We must remember that most Malaysians do not understand how the electoral process works so this may not only confuse people but will mislead them as well.

If you have worked as an election worker in an election then you would know how the process works. You would then not be satisfied with mere allegations of fraud but would like details about how this fraud was perpetuated. 

It is not that easy to cheat during an election but it is possible to cheat before the election. But then some of this cheating is not really cheating. It is called gerrymandering and is quite easy to do plus is perfectly legal. Everyone does it, even in advanced and civilised societies, and that is how parties get into office with less than 40% of the popular vote, but just as long as they win 51% or so of the seats with those 40% votes.

Anwar’s knee-jerk reaction when the results were announced on Sunday night was that Pakatan Rakyat won 51% of the votes so this means Pakatan Rakyat won the election. In 1933, Adolf Hitler won only 43% of the votes and 33% of the seats and yet his party took power. Al Gore won 48.4% of the votes but George W. Bush took power with 47.9% of the votes. In 1969, the Alliance Party won 49% of the votes and still managed to form the government.

So it does not mean if you win 51% of the votes you have won the election. Hence Anwar should not confuse the people by saying that since Pakatan Rakyat won more votes than Barisan Nasional then Pakatan Rakyat won the election. The winner is not based on how many votes you win but by how many seats you win, and Anwar knows this.

Now, how do you run an election to make sure you are not ‘cheated’ and you win? If Anwar does not know the answer then he should just retire. Actually he does know the answer to this question but he is mischievously leaving it vague. And this is very naughty of him.

First of all, you need to buy the list of the registered voters from the Election Commission (SPR). Your election workers then study this list to see whether there are any dubious voters on this list.

For example, you may find 300 voters registered at the same house address. Your election workers then visit this house to determine whether it is true that there are 300 people living in this one house. Most likely there are less than 10 people living in that house so this would mean the 300 registered voters are ‘phantom’ voters.

Now, this does not mean these 300 people do not exist. It could mean these people are living somewhere else but have been ‘moved’ to this area and since they do not have a home in that area they are ‘tompanging’ (‘squatting’) in this address.

These are what they refer to as ‘phantom’ voters -- people living somewhere else from where they are registered to vote. But they do exist. They are not really phantoms in the sense they are non-existent people.

If you are sure of winning in a certain area and your majority in that area is traditionally very large (say like Marang in Terengganu), then you can afford to shift some of your voters to the neighbouring area where the situation is normally 50:50 (say like Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu).

You are not worried about Marang. That is PAS President Ustaz Haji Abdul Hadi Awang’s area and no one can defeat him there. But Kuala Terengganu always swings between PAS and Umno (and even Parti Negara and Semangat 46 at one time) so you need to ‘strengthen’ that seat. So you shift some of the Marang voters to Kuala Terengganu so that you can win both seats instead of winning one and losing one.

That was why PAS won 15 of the 32 state seats in Terengganu (Umno won 17) and 4 of the 8 parliamentary seats (a tie). PAS very cleverly spread out their voters.

Kelantan is another case in point. Thousands of Kelantanese no longer live in Kelantan. They work and live all over Malaysia, many even in Singapore. But they do not transfer their place of voting to where they work/live. They remain registered in Kelantan and then go back to Kelantan to vote. This is to make sure that PAS can retain Kelantan.

Umno can, therefore, call these voters PAS’s phantom voters.

So PAS and Umno are actually cleverer at this game than DAP or PKR. DAP and PKR lump their voters in one place. Hence they win large majorities. PAS and Umno shift their voters and spread them out strategically. Hence with lesser votes they can win more seats whereas the reverse would happen for PKR and DAP.

But why did DAP win more seats than PAS? Well that is because PAS, PKR and Umno are sharing the 60% Malay votes while DAP monopolises the Chinese voters. Hence DAP gets more than 90% of the Chinese votes (in some saluran it was actually 100%, which shocked Umno) while PAS, PKR and Umno have to split the 60% Malay voters three ways.

And this is what concerns Umno. Umno can see that DAP now has a monopoly on the Chinese votes whereas Umno needs to compete with PAS and PKR for a share of the Malay votes.

Nevertheless, while Umno has to share the Malay votes with PAS and PKR, Umno won 88 seats versus 51 for PAS and PKR. And not all PKR seats are Malay seats. Some are Chinese/Indian seats. Hence, if you minus these seats, then Umno won 2:1 versus PAS and PKR.

TO BE CONTINUED