Najib's popularity plunges to 61%: PR leads BN 89 to 85, with balance 46 seats a toss-up

BANGI – Just 60 hours ahead of Malaysia’s historic 13th general election, a survey carried among voters in Peninsular Malaysia between April 28th to May 2nd 2013 found that ruling coalition Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are almost evenly tied.

In the survey, we found that 42% of voters agreed that “Pakatan Rakyat should be given a chance to govern the country” while 41% of voters felt “Only BN can govern the country”, at the same time, 4% of voters refused to respond while 13% of voters said they “did not know”.

The same survey found that the prime minister’s approval rating just days from polling day to be 61% down from 64% (based on a survey conducted 12th to 17th March 2013). In our opinion this figure reflects the slide in the so-called “feel good” factor generated by the large scale distribution of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) and such cash handouts targeting various sectors of the electorate.

Concerns over the economy (25%) topped the list of issues voters wanted to hear discussed or debated during the election followed by matters pertaining to administration and leadership 9%, social issues and public safety 7%, race-related issues 7% and corruption at 6%.

Opinion on Election Outcome

Based on the survey results and the assumption that the election is free and fair, we estimate that neither Barisan Nasional nor Pakatan Rakyat were in the lead as at 9:30pm on May 2nd 2013. Transposed onto the parliamentary constituency grid, our estimates for current standings based on this and other surveys are as follows:

Estimated Seats for BN   Toss-Up (within margin of error of ± 3.00%)    Estimated Seats Pakatan    Other Non Pakatan or BN parties
Peninsular Malaysia                    50                               34                                                     81                                -
Sabah + Labuan                       16                                6                                                       3                                1 (STAR)
Sarawak                                  19                                6                                                       5                                1 (SWP)
Total                                      85                               46                                                     89                                2

The survey was carried out by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research between 9:00am 28th April and 9:30PM on 2nd May 2013. 1,600 registered voters comprising 59% Malay,

32% Chinese and 9% Indian respondents were interviewed by telephone in the poll. Respondents were selected on the basis of random stratified sampling along ethnicity, gender and parliamentary constituencies.

The interviews were carried out in the preferred language of the respondents. The survey was funded internally by Merdeka Center for Opinion Research for release to the public.

About Merdeka Center for Opinion Research

Merdeka Center for Opinion Research was formally established in 2001 as an independent organization focused on public opinion research and socio-economic analysis. Merdeka’s mission is to act as a bridge between ordinary Malaysians and other stakeholders with the leading members of the nation – by collecting public opinion studies and expressing them through survey results, analysis and position papers. For details, visit: www.merdeka.org