Toyad back in Sarawak CM race?

The GE13 outcome, Najib Tun Razak's fragile cabinet and a fragmented federal government has given Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud the upper hand.

COMMENT

The outcome of the 13th GE though, in reality, unfavourable to Umno and  the other West Malaysian Barisan Nasional component parties – MCA,  MIC, Gerakan and PPP – was however a plus for Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB). The results gave PBB top man and Chief Minister Taib Mahmud,  the leeway to push for his agenda at federal and state levels. The second tsunami has changed Umno’s game plan in his favour. It has given Taib an opportunity to pass on the reins of political power to a family member from within his own small Melanau community . Taib has been under pressure from Prime Minister Najib Tun-Razak and federal Umno to step down and name a Umno-friendly successor. But the May 5 general election, turned the tables on Najib who had expected to sweep through in Peninsular Malaysia. In the end, Najib had to depend on Sarawak and Sabah’s 47 parliamentary seats to form the federal government. Hence whilst Umno-BN is realigning its game plan to protect its own interests, Taib is doing likewise. Najib’s fragile cabinet and fragmented federal government has offered a big break for Taib to demand for more cabinet posts for PBB , thereby blocking opportunities for the Dayak parties from Sarawak to have more political say at the federal level. Alongside this, Umno is also struggling against the pressure mounted by Pakatan and the  people in respect to the validity of the GE results. Taking advantage of the new political development, Taib has set in motion his own political agenda. Lets recap PBB’s history. The elected Sarawak state coalition government in 1970 led by Parti Bumiputra a minority party , was a fragile and unstable one. It merged with Parti Pesaka to form PBB in 1973 to gain political strength. However the coalition government was still unstable and could be toppled by the opposition. In 1974 the concept of an Alliance party – a coalition of parties in West Malaysia , Sarawak and Sabah – was mooted and accepted. They formed the bigger coalition now known as BN. In essence it was to save the PBB-led government from being toppled. This should remind the Sarawak Malays not to think that PBB is as strong as Umno. Taib has been able to become the Chief Minister for so long due to the support from the Dayak parties and the Chinese party. The very two races that put him him up can still pull him down. The Bumiputra wing of PBB  has only 26 assemblymen out of a total 71 state seats. Therefore the PBB–led government is more fragile than Najib’ government! To ensure his continuity, Taib has insidiously worked at pitting one Dayak party against another to weaken their political unity. His success is mainly attributed to money politics intertwined with the art of deception which works very well in the political climate in Sarawak. Taib’s succession plan The 13th GE outcome has given Taib the opportunity to implement his succession plan which was put on hold mainly because his demand for the post of the head of state (TYT) was  rejected by the federal government. Taib’s condition for stepping down as CM is that he be installed as the Sarawak governor. There are  five contenders for the coveted post of the Chief Minister of Sarawak. They are: i) Alfred Jabu anak Numpang, who is currently the senior deputy president of PBB and the only deputy CM after the 2011 state polls. Though he is not given important ministerial portfolios but by virtue of seniority in the party and cabinet, he should technically be next in line as Taib’s successor. Taib is creating a mirage effect in which Jabu visualizes that the CM seat is meant for him. He does not believe it’s an illusion, and is willing to wait for as long as it takes for Taib’s final call. Jabu  has displayed an unflinching loyalty to prove his point. He is in the running for the post as  the CM –in-waiting. ii) Abang Johari Openg is the PBB’s deputy president II. He too is eyeing the CM post. He is banking on federal support to urge Taib to hand the coveted post to him on a silver platter so to speak. However in the latest political scenario, Najib’s  position is weak and he is too indebted to Taib. So it is far-fetched if Abang Johari still believes in such a wishful thinking. iii ) Awang Tengah  Ali who is the senior vice-president of PBB works directly under the CM in important ministries. Awang Tengah is Taib’s closest aide and thereby has direct access to him. Awang Tengah is being rightly tagged as the de facto Deputy CM.  Through this close relationship with Taib he has managed to build his own mini business empire. He is contending for the post as the de facto Deputy CM. In fourth and fifth place are Dayak party leaders  James Masing and William Mawan. They each helm Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) respectively. They also hold the posts of Senior Ministers in Taib’s state cabinet. With their combined strength, they have  now entered the race as CM hopefuls. Taib’s biggest fear is Masing. Why? Because if Masing manages to unite and  pull away the Dayak support from Taib, the latter is in deep trouble. Taib has tried using his multi-pronged strategy to break up  PRS but to no avail. The big question now is can or will Masing turn the heat on Taib? Silent raiders The original succession plan was for Taib to become Sarawak governor and for Awang Tengah to move up to the CM seat by circumventing Jabu, Masing and Mawan. Taib is using rebel assemblymen from SPDP and Chinese-based Sarawak United Peoples Party (SUPP) to get a majority support to push his plan. However Putrajaya is adamant not to give in to his demand. Meanwhile Taib’s boys have become restless and impatient with the old man. There are  rumbling that a mutiny is in the offing to unseat him . But with the post-elections developments, Taib has recalled his contingency plan to neutralize and circumvent these obstacles. Playing his usual game of money politics he has tripled the salaries of the cabinet ministers and assemblymen to keep them happy. He needs them to be happy to support his bigger plan. The CM has two MPs – Wahab Dollah and Mohamad Leo Toyad – who have remained silent all these years so as not to alarm others. They have been told to wait in the wings. Wahab may be assigned to take over as the head of state should Taib not make it while Toyad, a PBB vice-president will silently raid the contenders’ ‘camp’ to grab the jewel in the crown – CM seat. Expect by-elections in at least two parliamentary and one state seat soon.Also on the drawing board is a cabinet reshuffle to allow the two to go for the top posts.