"INSANE" or not, it looks like curtains for Muhyiddin, unless he challenges Najib

KUALA LUMPUR - "They are INSANE!" That's was the rather heated response of Umno vice-president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to speculation that he would challenge Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin for their party's No. 2 post.

And despite the vehemence of Zahid's denial, the speculation cannot have failed to have sent a shiver down Muhyiddin's spine as he is possibly now the most 'expendable' leader in the Umno top echelon.

Indeed, all eyes are on next month's Umno election where the party's central leadership is due for renewal. Some 150,000 delegates will be called on to vote for a new lineup, with even Prime Minister Najib Razak's presidency of the party up for grabs.

Not surprisingly, speculation has swirled with most of the rumors emanating out of the the Umno grapevine itself as the stakes are enormously high. By convention, whoever is the Umno president is also made the country's prime minister and the deputy president the deputy prime minister as the party currently holds the most number of seats in Malaysia's Parliament.

"They are insane," national news agency Bernama reported Zahid, who is also the Home Minister, as saying at an event in Bagan Datoh, Perak on Saturday.

According to Bernama, another news portal had reported that "whispers of Ahmad Zahid going for the deputy president's post have started to surface in the towns of Sabah."

"I have said many times that will only defend the vice-president's post," reiterated Zahid.

Leaving a VP slot for Mukhriz

Nonetheless, his rather over-emphatic response could not have failed to raise eyebrows.

"You see, the battle lines drawn in Umno are still very fluid. Top-level negotiations are still on-going and getting even more intense. For example, Tengku Razaliegh is still looking for 'inspiration' on whether to challenge Najib for the presidency. This actually means Razaleigh is still trying to drum up enough support to make his bid meaningful. So the same goes for Zahid and Muhyiddin. If they get the right support and they believe they can be successful, the two of them will challenge Najib for the presidency as a team, with Muhyiddin going for No.1 and Zahid for No.2. This would be the worse scenario for Najib," an Umno veteran told Malaysia Chronicle.

"So this is why within the Najib camp, they are also offering Zahid all sorts of sweeteners so that he will remain a friendly party. They can also be using Zahid as a threat against Muhyiddin to signal that if he doesn't play ball and maintain the status quo, they might support Zahid to go for the deputy presidency. That way, Muhyiddin is left out in the cold and will have to push for the presidency by himself, which he will surely lose without showing to the party delegates that he has a strong team behind him."

"The third and perhaps the most likely explanation is that the rumors are being spread by supporters of former premier Mahathir Mohamad and former finance minister Daim Zainuddin. They might be using Zahid to threaten Muhyiddin that if he gets cold feet and doesn't make up his mind real soon, like within a week or two, to go after the presidency, then they will support Zahid to go after the deputy presidency. The chances are high for Zahid to beat Muhyiddin especially if Zahid has the support of Dr Mahathir and Daim. Zahid is seen as a more dynamic leader than Muhyiddin. This way, Dr M ensures he has a loyal party at the No. 2 spot to keep watch over Najib and at the same Zahid's challenging the deputy presidency will leave a vice-presidency slot vacant for Mukhriz to assume."

No reason for Zahid to stay a VP

Mukhriz is the newly-minted Kedah chief minister and youngest son of former Umno president Mahathir Mohamad, who still wield tremendous influence and is regarded as the leader of the party's hardline and conservative factions.

Mahathir has made it clear that he would like Mukhriz to follow in his footsteps, but the top 2 posts are presently beyond their reach as most delegates think Mukhriz has still to prove his calibre as a leader. This is why those close to the Mahathir camp have been accused of going all-out to secure a VP's post for Mukhriz.

Mukhriz himself has said he has not made up his mind on whether to join the rather overcrowded race for the 3 elected vice-presidencies in Umno. If he does and wants to succeed, then a credible team showing a viable succession pattern must be unveiled and 'sold' to Umno delegates so as to capture their imagination and thereby votes.

"This is the most assured way for Mahathir to retain indirect control at Umno and to secure a spot for Mukhriz. Preferably Dr M should be able to assemble together a new No. 1, No. 2 and VP line-up and pitch this to delegates, that this is the new team to reinvigorate and get Umno going again. Such a team would obviously be outrageously pro-Malay supremacy in their ideology and this will be their selling point to Umno delegates. I am sure you may have noticed Zahid has been supporting the return of Mahathir's favorite draconian laws as well."

At 60, Zahid is 6 years younger than Muhyiddin and regarded as being more in-tune with party grassroots. Umno watchers believe it would be politically illogical for Zahid to stay his hand and not make a stab for the No. 2 slot , with or without Muhyiddin and whether with the support of the Najib or Mahathir camp.

"In politics, sleeping with the enemy is so common. There are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends. It is all about being in the right place at the right time and seizing the opportunity when it comes. Especially in Umno," said the Umno watcher.

Too late for Muhyiddin?

The VP incumbents are Hishammuddin Hussein, the Defense minister, Shafie Apdal, the Rural minister and Zahid. Hisham and Shafie are clearly pro-Najib while Zahid has been 'neutral'.

Three stalwarts have recently announced their intention to challenge the trio. These are former Negri Sembilah chief minister Isa Samad, former Malacca chief minister Ali Rustam and Sabah chief minister Musa Aman. All 3 have strong grassroots support in Umno and good chances of winning.

Among the incumbents, the under-performing Hisham and Shafie look the most vulnerable. If Zahid decides against joining the Mahathir camp and going for the deputy presidency, he will still have a good chance of defending his VP post, but it would be a very tough fight with no guarantee that he will survive.

"This is what is meant by dog eat dog. The hunt for power is too great for the status quo to remain. Najib will find himself more and more isolated. Even if Mahathir decides to let him stay as No. 1, he will be a lame-duck party president and prime minister.

"Mahathir will seek to control from the No. 2 spot and from the VP positions. I would say, the most vulnerable person in Umno now is Muhyiddin. It looks like he might be discarded, even by the Mahathir camp, if he is not careful and continues to delay announcing his intentions. Not just Mahathir but Najib's side is sending him the message that they can do fine without him. Zahid will shift up, this will be good Mukhriz. And as for Najib, he doesn't have much choice but at least he gets to remain president and PM for another term. For Muhyiddin, it will be bye-bye just as it was for Dr Ismail, Ghafar Baba and Musa Hitam. Not all deputies get to inherit the presidencies. So if Muhyiddin wants to stay in the game, he has to be quick. The problem is, he may have left it too late and done himself out of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity."

Malaysia Chronicle