ANALYSIS With the announcement by M Saravanan that he would not contest for the MIC deputy president post, the only candidate likely to challenge Dr S Subramaniam in the forthcoming party elections is S Sothinathan.
But Sothinathan is said to be in a dilemma, whether to make a second attempt for the post as he did in 2009 or to position himself as one of the three vice-presidents this year and to move up later in 2016, when the leadership transition in MIC takes place.
In the 2009 party elections, Sothinathan contested as the third candidate for deputy presidency, securing a respectable 280 votes against veterans G Palanivel and S Subramaniam. Palanivel won the contest with 629 votes against Subramaniam who polled 547 votes.
Sources close to Sothinathan said although it is an uphill task to unseat the current deputy president and health minister, Sothinathan may still have a fair chance provided Palanivel's supporters back him for the position.
"Most of the delegates who were elected in 2009 are likely to be returned again this year. Sothinathan has a comfortable 280 votes based on the 2009 election results.
"Former deputy president Subramaniam’s 547 votes are up for grabs now because Subramaniam is not going to play any role in this election due to his health condition.
"Sothinathan may be able to secure a substantial portion of Subramaniam’s votes and with these votes if Palanivel throws his support to Sothinathan at the last minute, then Sothinathan may be able to cause an upset by defeating Dr Subramaniam," said a source close to Sothinathan.
However, the question is whether Palanivel would take the drastic step of supporting Sothinathan, going against the peace deal brokered by the prime minister himself.
Palanivel has already announced that he wants Dr Subramaniam (right) to be elected unopposed as deputy president.
Palanivel's key supporters are against the leadership transition and want the current president to continue and are doing everything the can to ensure that the implementation of the so-called leadership transition is derailed.
The only option they have now is to put up a credible challenge against Dr Subramaniam for deputy president and the only candidate who has the capacity to carry out that mission is Sothinathan.
Saravanan is a stumbling block
Another source close to Sothinathan opined: "Sothinathan, knowing very well that this is the last opportunity for him to place himself in MIC's hierarchy, is carefully planning his moves."
"If there is no open support from Palanivel then there is no way he can defeat Dr Subramaniam. On the other hand based on his past experiences with Palanivel he is reluctant to rely on Palanivel to take on Dr Subramaniam.
"Sothinathan is going to keep the MIC circles guessing but at the last minute will announce that he is going for vice-president and thereby he is expecting overwhelming support even from Dr Subramaniam’s supporters.
"His idea is to win the vice presidency with the highest number of votes so that he can stake a claim to be the next acting deputy president when Dr Subramaniam moves up as president," he said.
Sothinathan's reluctance to contest for deputy president also stems from the fact that Palanivel denied him the opportunity to contest in the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat in GE-13, despite Palanivel promising him that he would be considered.
Sothinathan fears that if Palanivel does not support him for deputy presidency after having filed his nominations, then Sothinathan’s future in MIC is doomed.
Therefore, Sothinathan's supporters are urging him to play it safe by going for vice- president and prepare himself for the next three years to stake his claim for the deputy presidency.
But Sothinathan is also facing another dilemma in the form of Saravanan, the current vice president, who is working very closely with Dr Subramaniam and has stood by the deputy president in the recent tussle for presidency with Palanivel.
Upon Palanivel's departure as president in the first quarter of 2016, Dr Subramaniam would be elevated as acting president and he is expected to appoint Saravanan as the acting deputy president. If Dr Subramaniam does not keep Saravanan as his deputy he may face the wrath of Saravanan's supporters who include S Samy Vellu's hardcore supporters.
In this scenario, Sothinathan would not be able to move up in MIC even though he is elected as the vice president because Saravanan would be a stumbling block.
In the final count, Sothinathan’s supporters ssaid that he would bite the bullet and go for vice- presidency and would try to supersede Saravanan by winning with the highest number of votes.
Probably, that achievement, if it materializes, could become the reason for Dr Subramaniam to choose Sothinathan as his next acting deputy president.
But Sothinathan is said to be in a dilemma, whether to make a second attempt for the post as he did in 2009 or to position himself as one of the three vice-presidents this year and to move up later in 2016, when the leadership transition in MIC takes place.In the 2009 party elections, Sothinathan contested as the third candidate for deputy presidency, securing a respectable 280 votes against veterans G Palanivel and S Subramaniam. Palanivel won the contest with 629 votes against Subramaniam who polled 547 votes.
Sources close to Sothinathan said although it is an uphill task to unseat the current deputy president and health minister, Sothinathan may still have a fair chance provided Palanivel's supporters back him for the position.
"Most of the delegates who were elected in 2009 are likely to be returned again this year. Sothinathan has a comfortable 280 votes based on the 2009 election results.
"Former deputy president Subramaniam’s 547 votes are up for grabs now because Subramaniam is not going to play any role in this election due to his health condition.
"Sothinathan may be able to secure a substantial portion of Subramaniam’s votes and with these votes if Palanivel throws his support to Sothinathan at the last minute, then Sothinathan may be able to cause an upset by defeating Dr Subramaniam," said a source close to Sothinathan.
However, the question is whether Palanivel would take the drastic step of supporting Sothinathan, going against the peace deal brokered by the prime minister himself.
Palanivel has already announced that he wants Dr Subramaniam (right) to be elected unopposed as deputy president. Palanivel's key supporters are against the leadership transition and want the current president to continue and are doing everything the can to ensure that the implementation of the so-called leadership transition is derailed.
The only option they have now is to put up a credible challenge against Dr Subramaniam for deputy president and the only candidate who has the capacity to carry out that mission is Sothinathan.
Saravanan is a stumbling block
Another source close to Sothinathan opined: "Sothinathan, knowing very well that this is the last opportunity for him to place himself in MIC's hierarchy, is carefully planning his moves."
"If there is no open support from Palanivel then there is no way he can defeat Dr Subramaniam. On the other hand based on his past experiences with Palanivel he is reluctant to rely on Palanivel to take on Dr Subramaniam.
"Sothinathan is going to keep the MIC circles guessing but at the last minute will announce that he is going for vice-president and thereby he is expecting overwhelming support even from Dr Subramaniam’s supporters.
"His idea is to win the vice presidency with the highest number of votes so that he can stake a claim to be the next acting deputy president when Dr Subramaniam moves up as president," he said.
Sothinathan's reluctance to contest for deputy president also stems from the fact that Palanivel denied him the opportunity to contest in the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat in GE-13, despite Palanivel promising him that he would be considered.
Sothinathan fears that if Palanivel does not support him for deputy presidency after having filed his nominations, then Sothinathan’s future in MIC is doomed.
Therefore, Sothinathan's supporters are urging him to play it safe by going for vice- president and prepare himself for the next three years to stake his claim for the deputy presidency.
But Sothinathan is also facing another dilemma in the form of Saravanan, the current vice president, who is working very closely with Dr Subramaniam and has stood by the deputy president in the recent tussle for presidency with Palanivel.Upon Palanivel's departure as president in the first quarter of 2016, Dr Subramaniam would be elevated as acting president and he is expected to appoint Saravanan as the acting deputy president. If Dr Subramaniam does not keep Saravanan as his deputy he may face the wrath of Saravanan's supporters who include S Samy Vellu's hardcore supporters.
In this scenario, Sothinathan would not be able to move up in MIC even though he is elected as the vice president because Saravanan would be a stumbling block.
In the final count, Sothinathan’s supporters ssaid that he would bite the bullet and go for vice- presidency and would try to supersede Saravanan by winning with the highest number of votes.
Probably, that achievement, if it materializes, could become the reason for Dr Subramaniam to choose Sothinathan as his next acting deputy president.
J JAY RAJ is a long-serving MIC member with a keen interest in Malaysian politics.
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