CONFIRMED, THE MONEY IS GONE! NAJIB CAUGHT RED-HANDED - CANNOT COUNT 26 MINUS 9 = 15!

I received the following last night. At first I thought it was a gag.

Montmorency is captioned speaking on Astro Awani news that the gomen will only get revenue of RM9 billion from Petronas, down from RM26 billion last year. That is a drop of RM17b.

So this year's oil revenue (for 2016 budget) will be RM26b minus RM17b = RM9 Billion.

But Montmorency says RM26b - RM9b = RM15b !!

Then someone else sent me the following report by Malaysiakini. He did say from RM26b down to RM9b is RM15B !!

He even stressed the point "Where am I going to find RM15 billion?" His arithmetic is off by RM2 billion.

Someone else joked that missing RM2.0 billion will go into "another account".

The guy is a total moron. Even simple numbers are beyond him.

However there is more bullshitting going on here. The oil revenues have really, really dropped. The gomen's shortfall will not be RM17 billion. It will be higher in the region of RM25 billion (or more).

Here is an analysis on gomen revenue derived from Petronas. Folks, thats why you come to OutSyed The Box. Its outside the box here.

The following was sent to me by someone. There is method and logic to the argument. Do read this. Irwan Siregar and MOF, do take note. The Budget is on Friday. The Stock Market is already panicking - in anticipation of dont know what other crap the moron is going to say in his Budget speech.

Anyway here is the analysis on what has happened to the gomen's oil revenues:

Malaysia headed for SIGNIFICANT financial shortfall in 2016

Note: these are only concerning the numbers for Malaysia's oil and gas revenue from Petronas, given to the federal government.

1. 6th February 2015:

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/02/06/Slumping-profits/?style=biz

Due to its lower profit projection, Petronas’ payout to the Government in the form of dividends, taxes, royalty and export duties is also expected to be down by almost 50% for this year compared with an estimated RM 73 billion in 2014.

MY comments : So Petronas pays FOUR different contributions to the gomen

1. dividends

2. taxes

3. royalties and

4. export duties.

Irwan Siregar, please note. Tolong jangan bullshit.

“The contribution is expected to be down by almost 50% to about RM 35 billion for 2015, as Petronas goes through a period of adjustment to cut down its capital and operating expenditure. This is based on a payout ratio of 50%,” said a source.

In 2013, Petronas’ total contribution to the Government in the form of taxes, dividends, royalties and export duties stood at RM 67.6 billion, while in 2012, it amounted to RM 80 billion.

... Petronas, Malaysia’s only global Fortune 500 company, is the country’s biggest source of revenue, covering about a third of the Government’s annual income. But not unlike other oil majors, it has to face the new realities of bearish crude prices.

.................

2. 1st October 2015:

http://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/malaysia-stumbles-toward-financial-crisis/

In the current fiscal year, Petronas contributed RM 26 billion to the budget, with another RM 26 billion taken from the Petroleum Development Tax, for a total of RM 52 billion from Petronas reserves.

Officials are privately forecasting that because of the collapse of oil prices, the two funds will contribute only RM 10 billion each, leaving a shortfall of RM 30 billion.

My comments : Najib says the shortfall is RM15 billion (err...RM17 billion)

................

3. 18th October 2015 (today):

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/dont-turn-1mdb-into-political-football-malaysia-pm-najib-tells-critics

"Petroleum prices have slumped and Petronas which gave a dividend of RM 26 billion this year have said that they can only give RM 9 billion next year. Where am I to go to make up the RM 15 billion deficit," Najib said.

My comments : Even the NST captures Montmorency's poor arithmetic. Anyway the analyst continues:

... the PM is omitting significant information. While this year's dividend from Petronas is RM 26 billion, this year's taxes, royalties and export duties from Petronas should be around an addition RM 26 billion, for a total of around RM 52 billion.

If Petronas is expecting to provide only RM 9 billion next year in dividends to the federal government, there should be a corresponding reduction in next year's taxes, royalties and export duties.

Which means the RM 9 billion shortfall that the PM mentions, should be significantly more than a RM 9 billion shortfall. More likely double that number, after including the reduction in taxes, duties and export taxes.

Or around an RM15b to RM18b shortfall. NOT an RM 9 billion shortfall mentioned by the PM.

Please refer to the earlier numbers quoted above from previous years, for total rough amounts of Petronas dividends, plus taxes, duties and export taxes.

2012 : RM 80 billion

2013 : RM 67 billion

2014 : RM 73 billion

2015 : RM 52 billion

2016 : (projected) RM 9 billion in dividends, plus unknown RM billion for taxes, duties and export taxes. (Expected well below RM 26 billion).

Best case scenario for 2016...

RM 9 billion from Petronas dividends, plus

RM 18 billion in taxes, duties and export taxes, totals :

RM 27 billion

So, to extrapolate the 2016 numbers:

2012 : RM 80 billion

2013 : RM 67 billion

2014 : RM 73 billion

2015 : RM 52 billion

2016 : RM 27 billion (projected best case scenario)

Buckle up, 2016 is going to be far bumpier financially than the PM is admitting.

My comments : The moron is NOT giving the full picture. Irwan Siregar also take note. Jangan klentong brader.

Montmorency says Petronas dividends will drop from RM26b down to RM9b. Short by RM17b.

What about revenue from : Petronas' corporate taxes, oil royalties and oil export duties? That will also be down.

The analyst above says the best case scenario (in the 2016 Budget) for all FOUR contributions ie dividends, taxes, royalties and export duties is about RM27b.

This is RM25 BILLION less than the revenues earned in 2015. Much higher than the "RM15 billion" alluded to by Montmorency.

So Irwan Siregar, do take note. When you prepare the Budget speech for Friday, please be honest. Tally all the Petronas contributions accurately ie dividends, taxes, royalties and export duties.

AND PLEASE STATE CLEARLY WHAT IS THE PRICE PER BARREL OF OIL THAT YOU ARE ASSUMING AS YOUR BASIS.

I KNOW THAT COCONUT OIL IS NOW SOLD AS A MEDICINE IN PHARMACIES (WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT ??) BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MINERAL OIL AND GAS OK?

West Texas Intermediate is now trading at US$45.89 per barrel while Brent is trading at US$48.61 per barrel.

SO PLEASE DO NOT BULLSHIT US WITH US80 PER BARREL. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN FOR A LONG TIME.

But my question is - with such a huge shortfall in revenue, how is the gomen going to launch an expansionary Budget? Duit mana mari? Err..correction - duit mana cari? - http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.my/