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Sunday, February 26, 2017

Coup de etats are usually executed by colonels, not generals.

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Robert Fisk, the eminent Middle East war correspondent for Britain's 'The Independent' newspaper feels that the failed coup against Erdogan in Turkey just did not succeed. Meaning another one is  'in the offing'.  Because the circumstances that precipitated the coup have not changed. In fact the situation in Turkey has perhaps become worse.

Anyway, there are two types of coups. 

A coup de etat (ku-di-ta) is usually executed by one or more men leading another group of men to physically overthrow the incumbent ruler or government. It is always an unconstitutional and illegal process. Dont ever get involved in one ok.

Another coup de etat is sometimes executed by an incumbent leader or government to prevent another new, legally appointed leader or government from taking over the reins of power.  Dont ever get involved in one ok.

Coup de etats almost always involve  the military.  Though in reality some wives have been known to hijack the "reins" of power and "reign" like kings (or queens). Examples would be Jiang Qing (Chairman Mao's wife), Eva Peron, wife of Argentine president Juan Peron  and 'Bad Hair Do'. 

Very often 'military' coup de etats involve military 'colonels'. There is a simple reason for this. The colonels are the guys who actually command the regiments and battalions which have the men, machine guns, tanks and equipment to execute a coup de etat.  Meaning it is the colonels ie the battalion and regimental commanders who can give the orders for the troops to move.

I have another explanation why it is usually colonels who undertake coup de etats. Colonels are usually younger men, more fit with slimmer waistlines - compared to say army generals who are usually older men. So if the coup de etat  starts to go wrong they must be fit enough to run for their lives ! !  This is a logical deduction - I am just trying to be a Holmes here - who was a fictional character.   

In Malaysia throughout 60 years of our independence our Army and Armed Forces have developed a robust and unshakeable tradition of being fully professional and apolitical.    Also there has never been any situation where the Armed Forces have even contemplated stepping out of their barracks during peacetime.

In the modern era with Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp and what not the "window of opportunity" to  execute a coup has shrunken significantly.

The coup de etat against Erdogan failed because Erdogan and his supporters took to Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp and the Alternative Media to ask their supporters to pour out into the streets - which they did. Within hours of the coup, hundreds of thousands of Erdogan's supporters jammed the roads in Turkey's main cities, especially Ankara.

This rousing of the Erdogan supporters caught the coup plotters by surprise. If the coup does not succeed within a few hours, then it will not succeed.   My prediction is if there is another coup de etat in Turkey (as hinted by Robert Fisk) this time they may also prioritise shutting down the full spectrum of radio and electronic communications in Turkey.  I believe Erdogan may also suffer a worse fate. The guy is corrupted as hell.

If a coup is planned over an unexpected election result, again the window of opportunity to execute the coup will last maybe seven or eight hours at the most - ie when the poll results are still being announced. If they wait for the next day, it will be too late.

So in any coup situation (in Turkey for example) the people to watch (ie the colonels) must be watched closely during the "window of opportunity" of   7  to 12 hours. 

Coup de etats have absolutely no place in a democratic society. Whether to overthrow an incumbent government or to preserve the incumbent government it  is simply too Jurassic. 

It is Stone Age behaviour. Tidak bertamaddun, tidak beradab. But so is RUU355.

The best advice is never take part in a coup.    There are always consequences.

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