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Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Trump To Abdool : Prove Your Love To Me. Will Saudi Arabia Invade Qatar ?

Hi folks. Been away for a couple of days. Been getting plenty of sunshine and exercise.  Good thing is I am not on holidays at all.  This is the bulan puasa.

Ok there is an evolving situation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. 
Qatar is supposed to host the next World Cup.
Qatar is also home base to Al Jazeera TV. 
Will Saudi Arabia invade Qatar? 

Here is much news. 

First the Brits (The Guardian)

1.  What is Qatar's position in the Middle East?

Qatar home to al-Udeid airbase, 10,000 US troops
Qatar occupies tiny headland on Arabian peninsula
single land border with Saudi Arabia, across sea from Iran
since independence in 1971 ruled by al-Thani family
highest per capita income in the world
grown fabulously wealthy on oil and natural gas 
Tensions with Arab neighbours grown in recent years 
over support for Islamist movements 
now isolated and backed into corner

Gulf's biggest diplomatic crisis 

Saudi, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain cut ties with Qatar
Qatar destabilising region with support for Islamist groups

halt all land, air and sea traffic with Qatar

eject diplomats, Qatari citizens to leave Gulf states within 14 days 

Doha face food shortages after Saudi closed sole land border
40% of Qatar’s food comes over Saudi border

Qatar also expelled from Saudi coalition fighting in Yemen

coordinated move escalates  dispute over Qatar’s support of Islamists

including Muslim Brotherhood, tolerance of Saudi arch-rival, Iran. 

dispute worst since formation of Gulf Co-operation Council in 1981

cut ties owing to Qatar’s “embrace of various terrorist, sectarian groups 
aimed at destabilising region
and groups supported by Iran in Saudi's restive eastern province of Qatif
Egypt accused Qatar of taking “antagonist approach” towards Egypt 

“all attempts to stop it from supporting terrorist groups failed” 
gave Qatari ambassador 48 hours to leave Egypt
ordered chargé d’affaires in Qatar to return to Cairo within 48 hours

Bahrain blamed Qatar’s “media incitement, support for armed terrorists"

funding Iranian groups to carry out sabotage and chaos in Bahrain”

sign of Qatar’s growing isolation

Yemen joined move to break relations
Maldives and Libya

effect on air travel  immediate

Qatar Airways suspend all flights to Saudi
Etihad, Abu Dhabi-based carrier, suspend flights to Qatar 
Emirates, Dubai-based carrier, suspend Qatar flights 
flydubai suspend flights to Doha 

Egypt announced airspace closed to Qatari planes 

moves came 2 weeks after 4 Arab countries blocked Qatar media 

over comments by Qatari emir that praised Iran
Qatar has long faced criticism from Arab neighbours over support of Islamists 
Doha has welcomed senior figures from Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood

(My comments : Yusuf Qardawi, the ulil amri of the Muslim Brotherhood lives in Qatar. Zakir Naik also had residence in Qatar. His "Peace TV" used to operate from there.) 

Saudi’s chief worry is Muslim Brotherhood

Islamist movement outlawed by Saudi and UAE
threat to their system of hereditary rule

Gulf, Saudi fell out with Qatar over backing of Morsi a Brotherhood member

March '14 Saudi, UAE, Bahrain recalled ambassadors from Qatar over rift

relations resumed 8 months later when Qatar forced Brotherhood to leave 

(My comments : That was also when Zakir Naik's Peace TV was shut down. Plus Hamas and Brotherhood members were kicked out. Some of them came here to Malaysia. Kita kan bodoh?) 

Saudi withdrew al-Jazeera’s media licence, closing its Saudi office

Qatar broadcaster promoted terrorist plots, supported Houthis in Yemen

banned all Qatar vessels from is ports 

lorries entering Qatar over Saudi border blocked

Saudi aim to pressure Qatar to change foreign policy

questioning legitimacy could prove to be double edged sword for any Gulf ruler

Qatar key financial patron of Hamas 

home of exiled Hamas official Khaled Mashaal since 2012
any compromise will be withdrawal of Hamas from Doha

West accused Qatar of funding al-Qaida’s Nusra Front in Syria

row comes 2 weeks after Trump visited Middle East

major defence contracts with Saudi worth US$110bn

set up anti-extremist institute in Riyadh 
urged Gulf states to build alliance against Iran

Saudis countering allegation of funding extremism  

by pointing finger at Qatar for backing terrorism

Rex Tillerson:  “we’re witnessing growing list of irritants in region" 

they’ve bubbled up, countries have taken action to address differences

My comments :  This is a very organised, and concerted effort.  Eight (?) countries, including the Maldives, have decided to cut ties (including air, sea and land links) with Qatar - all on the same day.  

Arabs are never known for organisation or concerting their efforts. There must be a  conductor orchestrating this whole thing.  It has to be Uncle Sam and the CIA. 

I think the name is Michael d'Andrea.  Michael D'Andrea is Donald Trump's new Head of Iran Operations at the CIA.  D'Andrea is also a Muslim - he married a Muslim woman.

"TRUMP'S NEW HEAD OF THE CIA’S IRAN OPERATIONS  :  Michael D’Andrea goes by many names. To those in the CIA, he’s the Undertaker, the Dark Prince, Ayatollah Mike."

Tiny, camel racing Qatar has been a pimple on the camel's butt for a long time. 
They have been irritating Egypt by playing host to the Muslim Brotherhood.  
Yusuf Qardhawi (ulil amri of the Brotherhood) has been living in Qatar for more than 20 years. 
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal is exiled in Qatar.
Zakir Naik's Peace TV was based in Qatar, until he was kicked out.
Qatar is known for financing the ISIS, Al Qaeda and other jihadi terrorists.

Now here is another analysis by some Arab fellow. 
This one is interesting as well. I think this is the real story :

Next Step - Invasion? Why Saudi Arabia Moved to Cut Ties With Qatar 

Saudi severed ties with Qatar in preparation for full-scale invasion 

cut ties with Qatar prelude to invading 
seizing its wealth, Institute for Gulf Affairs Founder Professor Ali al-Ahmed 

I project invasion of Qatar 
reports of Saudi military movements near Qatar border
Saudis: They are preparing

full-scale invasion of Qatar could occur much sooner 

Trump and Rex Tillerson both support Saudi invasion of Qatar, Ahmed claimed
Trump already told Saudis he would have no objection

Saudis strongly supported by Egypt, UAE, Bahrain which hosts US Fifth Fleet 

Saudis very angry with Qatar 

Saudis won’t ever let Yemen have independence
Bahrain hates Qatar," he noted.

Saudi determined to reduce Qatar to subservient satellite of Riyadh 

reduced to servile dependence like current government in Yemen

Saudis have two goals

1st get Qatar into subservient relationship 
2nd Saudis eyeing massive Qatari cash. They want it.

Saudi desperately need money again

Trump said: Saudis to pay larger sums to US for defense

Saudis need money right and left
Trump's new financial demands on Saudis
They will run out of money
they are desperate for fresh cash
Saudis determined Qatar totally submissive to them

My comments :  The Saudis are way above their skirts in the Yemen. After almost three years, their misadventure in Yemen is becoming a nightmare. The Yemeni Houthis still occupy Saudi Arabian territory.  Qatar has been not too subtly rooting for the Houthis.

Qatar has been a pain in the butt for Egypt for very much longer - for more than 20 years.  Qatar has played permanent host to the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood which originated in Egypt. Qatar has also funded the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots Hamas and also in Syria and Libya. 

Back to the Saudis - they also need a "face saving device" to extract themselves from Yemen. Qatar may provide just the right diversion. 

The Saudis are also short of money. 

Their deal with Trump (signed just two weeks ago) says that the Saudis get to keep the  "Saudi" brand name provided they bought 

i.    US110 Billion worth of weapons and 
ii.   invested US$400 Billion in the US, plus 
iii.  Ivanka Trump got US100 million for her Women's NGO. 

That is a grand total of  US$510.1 Billion !   That was signed just two weeks ago.

Considering this "concerted" move by eight countries to cut ties with Qatar is evidence enough that the deal signed with Donald Trump had plus, plus riders attached.  Read the fine print.  The devil is always  in the fine print. 

What shall be the conclusion?  This is NOT just any simple diplomatic isolation, for example when Egypt signed that peace treaty with Israel in 1978, almost all the Arab countries cut diplomatic ties with Egypt. But none of them cut off air links, closed their ports or road connections with Egypt.

Qatar which is a tiny peninsula has only one land border ie with Saudi Arabia which supplies over 40% of Qatar's food.  

This time around, Saudi Arabia has almost completely shut  off Qatar. No flights, no land links, border closed, ports denied, ambassadors recalled. The UAE and Egypt have also cut all air and sea links. 

This is serious. What is the desired result? 

The Emir of Qatar better think fast. 
I think the al Thani family are about to lose their hold over Qatar.

If the Qataris do not change their attitude, I believe that yes the Saudis will invade Qatar.  'Captain Mohamed Saleem Bhai,   are you ready? Jawab karto."  

With so much "concerted effort" by eight countries to cut ties, I think the Qatari Emir's  camel just got roasted.  

The easiest way now is if a "palace coup" is organised inside Qatar that will see the overthrow of the present Emir. 
Then a newer,  less terrorist friendly Emir from the same al Thani clan can take over.  

This way they get to keep ruling Qatar but under a new 'Operations Manual'. 

Remember what Trump said  in Saudi Arabia just two weeks ago:

  • A better future is only possible if your nations drive out the terrorists and extremists. 
  • Drive. Them. Out.
  • DRIVE THEM OUT of your places of worship.
  • DRIVE THEM OUT of your communities.
  • DRIVE THEM OUT of your holy land, and

That is what is beginning to happen now. But there is also a script for Saudi Arabia. For certainly Qatar is NOT the biggest funder of terrorists or terrorist ideologies around the world.

Michael D'Andrea is the CIA fellow who led the team that tracked down and killed Osama bin Laden. He was also in charge of all US drone strike operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A man with much bloodshed on his hands.  

Michael D'Andrea has now been tasked with overthrowing the ayatollahs in Iran and returning Iran back to a secular system of government. A secular democracy. 

My prediction is, even WITHOUT CIA involvement, the Iranian people will overthrow the ayatollahs and re-install a modern and secular democracy in Iran.

A secular and modern Iran will no more be an enemy of the United States and Israel.  Recall that during the time of the Shah, Iran had very close ties with Israel.  If a secular and democratic Iran becomes friends again for the US and Israel, then who will remain as the "unwanted" enemy?

I think Donald Trump is now choosing carefully not to repeat the mistake of "killing the wrong pig" again.

1 comment:

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