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Thursday, August 3, 2017

Report: Two reasons why BN may lose GE14

Global Risk Insights says the Mahathir factor, coupled with the 1MDB scandal, could finally bring the opposition into power.
mahathir-1MDBKUALA LUMPUR: Two factors could turn the tide against the ruling government in the next general election: Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading the opposition and the 1MDB scandal.
This is the assessment of Global Risk Insights, a world-leading publication for political risk news and analysis, which was founded at the London School of Economics.
Saying the next general election is significant because of the return of Dr Mahathir to active politics and the 1MDB scandal which continues to dog Prime Minister Najib Razak, it concludes that these two factors may be able to lead the opposition to an unprecedented victory.
Noting that the ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional, has never lost an election and that Malaysia’s top post features an unbroken line of prime ministers from Umno, it says their continued control is no longer so certain.
The Barisan Nasional has gradually lost vote share over the past several elections.
In 2004, the BN won 63.8% of the vote and in 2008, this figure slipped to 51.4%. In the following general election, in 2013, the BN only won 47.4% of the popular vote.
However, it maintained control of parliament, largely due to the way in which electoral boundaries are drawn.
The report says it is significant that Dr Mahathir, who served as prime minister between 1981 and 2003, has come out of retirement at age 92 to join the opposition coalition alongside Anwar Ibrahim, whom he had previously jailed, to defeat the party he once led.
Dr Mahathir is seen as a unifying figure for the fragmented opposition coalition, and someone whose leadership could help win over previously inaccessible rural constituencies.
The other factor is Najib’s association with the 1MDB scandal. US investigators have linked money allegedly taken from 1MDB to the accounts of his friends and associates.
Najib has consistently denied he is party to any embezzlement of 1MDB funds.
The report says GE14 could be a defining moment for Malaysian politics which has been plagued with corruption scandals, including the 1MDB scandal, the Felda Global Ventures scandal, the National Feedlot scandal and the Port Klang Free Trade Zone scandal.
It notes that people are increasingly becoming angry with systemic cronyism, corruption and inequality – not just in Malaysia but in numerous other countries from Brazil to Pakistan.
In the past, it notes, strong economic growth, limited information sharing capacity, and a weaker press may have suppressed Malaysian voter concerns about corruption.
But today, better information sharing capacity combined with the opposition’s attempt to weaponise corruption allegations may turn the tide against the BN. -FMT

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