Stats show Umno split could result in swing in Malay votes

DAP's Ong Kian Ming says it is not completely impossible to expect a 15% swing among Malay voters, based on what happened in 1999 and 2008.

PETALING JAYA: DAP’s Ong Kian Ming today revealed statistics on support from the three main communities in the peninsular for Barisan Nasional (BN), which showed that any split within Umno could likely result in more Malays rejecting the ruling coalition.

Dissecting the support from the Malays, Chinese and Indians, Ong said with the Chinese and Indian support for BN on the decline over the past two general elections – 2008 and 2013 – the key to any hope for an opposition victory in the next general election (GE14) lay in the hands of Malay voters.

“The largest swing in Malay support against the BN took place in the 1999 ‘Reformasi’ general election where the number of Malay votes for BN fell by 27% from 81% in 1995 to 54% in 1999.

“Following that, in 2008, the Malay votes for BN fell by the smaller margin of 6%,” Ong said, referring to the 12th general election (GE12) when BN lost the two-thirds parliamentary majority and four states, mainly due to the loss of support from the Chinese, with a 40% drop, and Indians (42%).

In 1998, Anwar Ibrahim was sacked as deputy prime minister before being charged with sodomy and abuse of power. Many of his supporters left Umno to start Parti Keadilan with his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail at the helm.

Prior to the 2008 election, however, there was much dissatisfaction within Umno over the leadership of former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, with his predecessor Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading the rebellion from within.

Mahathir left the party in May 2008, two months after GE12, in a bid to force Abdullah to quit as prime minister following the major loss suffered at the polls.

“In the 2013 general election (GE13), however, BN support among the Malays increased slightly, by 5%,” said Ong, who is also Serdang MP.

Now, with the departure of Mahathir, former deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, former Kedah menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir and other party leaders aligned to them, and the subsequent formation of PPBM, Ong said the possibility of a Malay tsunami as suggested by Kluang MP Liew Chin Tong, was very real.

“The question is, however, how much of a Malay swing can we expect in GE14? A Malay swing of 10% is not out of the question given the impact of Mahathir and the formation of PPBM.

“But how much of a Malay swing against the BN is needed for PH to win Putrajaya? Is a Malay tsunami in the form of a 15% Malay vote swing against the BN something realistic?” Ong asked.

“A Malay swing against the BN of 15% would bring BN’s Malay support to about 50% which would leave BN teetering on a knife’s edge.”

Ong, who is also DAP election strategist, added that a swing of 15% or more in any voting block did not usually occur “but we are living in unusual circumstances”.

“It happened in 1999 among the Malay voters and it happened again in 2008 among the non-Malay voters.

“If I had been told in 2013 that Mahathir and Muhyiddin would form a new political party to fight Umno in GE14, I would have said that you were out of your mind.

“What was then unthinkable is now a reality,” Ong said, adding it was therefore not out of the realm of impossibility to consider a 15% swing among Malay voters.

He admitted however, that there was no way to tell if it would be PAS or Pakatan Harapan who would benefit the most from such a large swing in Malay votes.

The following is the estimated support for the BN by racial groups in Peninsular Malaysia, over the last five general elections.

1995
Malays – 81%, Chinese – 55%, Indians – >90%;

1999
Malays – 54% (-27%), Chinese – 65% (+10%), Indians – >90% (not available);

2004
Malays – 65% (+11%), Chinese – 75% (+10%), Indians – >90% (NA);

2008
Malays – 59% (-6%), Chinese – 35% (-40%), Indians – 48% (-42%);

2013
Malays – 64% (+5%), Chinese – 14% (-21%), Indians – 38% (-10%).

-FMT