PAS only performs well in elections as part of coalition, says don

Once again, PAS has been predicted to draw the short straw in the 14th general election (GE14), losing out to both BN and Pakatan Harapan in three-cornered fights.

“In elections where it has not been in a coalition, PAS has performed poorly,” said Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU) adjunct professor Johan Saravanamuttu (centre in photo).

He was speaking at the “Multi-cornered contests: Bane or Boon?” forum held by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research in Kuala Lumpur today.

In contrast, PAS had won a significantly higher percentage of parliamentary seats as part of BN in 1974, Barisan Alternatif in 1999 and Pakatan Rakyat in 2008 and 2013, he said while pointing at a bar chart (below).

Characterising it as a “regional party”, Johan said PAS had in the past leveraged on coalition component parties for national appeal. In GE14, it is widely expected to contest as a single party after officially calling it quits with PKR in May this year.

Fellow panellist Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) associate professor Faisal S Hazis also predicted that PAS will see a drop in support if it goes into elections alone.  

“It is set to lose more than half of the seats it won in the last election. Safe seats have become ‘unsafe’ while marginal seats are at high risk of being lost.

“This is because it will lose the Chinese vote, plus it has been weakened by an internal schism in the form of splinter party Amanah.

“PAS has also increasingly been seen as becoming similar to Umno. From a political marketing standpoint this is bad because it (the party) will lose their distinctiveness,” he claimed.

Faisal hypothesised that a PAS that is seen as “not much different” from Umno will cause people to vote for BN, as they will perceive that the coalition is better able to represent them.

Three-cornered fights in previous elections have seen the third party losing out, added Merdeka Center for Opinion Research director Ibrahim Suffian.

“Duverger’s Law (in political science) says that elections with multiple parties involved push voters to choose the two strongest parties. Previous three-cornered fights have also shown that the third party does not get sizeable support.

“In the upcoming election, it will be very complex. PAS, as well as PKR, are in for a rough ride,” said Ibrahim.

Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad previously predicted that the Islamist party would fare badly in GE14.

More than 50 people attended the forum, which was held at the University of Nottingham Malaysia Teaching Centre and moderated by Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Khoo Ying Hooi.- Mkini