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Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Mathematician Chief of Israeli Space Agency Says Corona Virus Fizzles Out After 70 Days

First here are today's Corona Virus numbers for Malaysia. There were 85 new cases today versus 169 cases discharged.  Thats actually just over 50%. This is great news. Are we over the hill already? I hope so.





#Covid19 #Malaysia : Perkembangan Terkini
( 15hb April 2020 - Sehingga Jam 5 Petang )
Jumlah Kes Terbaru : 85
Jumlah Kes Keseluruhan : 5,072
Pesakit dalam ICU : 56 Orang
(Termasuk 32 orang; dengan bantuan alat pernafasan)
Jumlah Sembuh : 2,647 Orang
(Jumlah terbaru discaj; 169 orang)
Jumlah Kematian : 83 Orang
(Jumlah kematian terbaru; 1 orang)



OSTB :  Now here is an Israeli professor (whose credentials are quite impressive) who says that from a purely statistical point of view the Corona Virus seems to have a life cycle of 70 days - wherever it shows up.






Prof Isaac Ben-Israel prominent mathematician, analyst, former general
chairman of National Council for Research and Development
also heads Israel’s Space Agency
head of Security Studies program, Tel Aviv University 
  • claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates COVID peaks after 40 days 
  • declines to almost zero after 70 days 
  • no matter where it strikes
  • no matter what measures governments impose 
he conducted research with fellow professor
analyzing growth, decline of new cases around the world
showed repeatedly “set pattern” and “numbers speak for themselves”


while he supports social distancing
widespread shutdowns demonstrable error in light of the statistics

In Israel 140 people normally die every day
To shutdown economy because corona kills 1-2 a day is radical error 
unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged
 
Prof. Gabi Barbash former Health Ministry DG says Ben-Israel mistaken

Ben-Israel is not medical expert
death tolls far higher if did not take steps 

But Ben-Israel said S'pore, Taiwan, Sweden 
proved his point
did not take radical measures to shutdown economies 

latest figures from New York precisely in line with his statistics 
new cases peaking, starting to fall after about 40 days
 
Asked to explain, Ben-Israel said: I have no explanation
Maybe climate  or virus has life-span of its own
 
He said lockdowns was “mass hysteria” 
Simple social distancing would be sufficient 
 
you shouldn’t be closing down entire country 
when most of population is not at high risk
 
Asked to explain high death toll in Italy
he said Italian health service already overwhelmed
“It collapsed in 2017 because of the flu,” he said
 
OSTB : Well this is quite interesting. I guess as more data is collected and becomes available then more people with the knowhow and the expertise will try to figure out this Corona Virus.   I just hope all this analyses helps us defeat this virus.

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