Umno - from king to kingmaker?

For decades, Umno has been the undisputed hegemon in Malaysian politics. When its BN allies began to falter in 2008, the power dynamics in the ruling coalition further shifted to Umno, which could govern like a king.

Umno grew comfortable with the subservience it enjoyed and began to expect the same from within the party.

When reports from across the globe emerged that billions of ringgit had been looted from state-owned fund 1MDB under then Umno president Najib Abdul Razak's stewardship, there were only murmurs of protests from within that were quickly snuffed out.

Umno's hegemony collapsed in the 2018 general election when the party underestimated the cracks from within.

Despite BN's 61-year hold on power coming to an abrupt end, Umno as a party was still the most influential. It won 54 seats and 21 percent of the popular vote, the highest for any single party.

Bersatu, comprising purged Umno rebels, only made a dent against Umno. Bersatu won 13 seats but managed to cobble together a coalition with other opposition parties to form the new government.

But it was not the end. Umno was confident that if it joined forces with PAS under Muafakat Nasional, they could easily return to power in the next general election due in 2023.

This became increasingly apparent as a series of missteps by the Pakatan Harapan government, despite its reform efforts, saw its popularity plummet particularly among Malay voters who make up the base for Umno and PAS.

Those plans were suddenly thrown into disarray when both Umno and PAS were unexpectedly offered a taste of power much earlier than they had anticipated.

Bersatu, under its president Muhyiddin Yassin, was cognisant of what Umno and PAS were planning.

Pushed into a corner

Foreseeing electoral disaster for Bersatu, Muhyiddin took the party out of Harapan and offered to form a new coalition - the Perikatan Nasional (PN) - with opposition parties including Umno and PAS.

They jumped at the opportunity of an expedited pass to Putrajaya. Umno was diplomatic in its language but between the lines, its intention was clear - take Bersatu's offer now but finish it off in the next general election.

Many predicted Bersatu's doom, including its former chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad, but Muhyiddin pulled off several manoeuvres that have sent shivers down Umno's spine.

Muhyiddin relied on his trusted and effective broker Hamzah Zainudin, who even though is the home minister, has spent much time cutting political deals and strengthening Bersatu and PN.

He coordinated the pre-election negotiations in Sabah which ultimately saw PN parties winning but Bersatu took the chief minister post over Umno.

Already dissatisfied at the fact that Bersatu "stole" 16 of its MPs before PN was formed, Umno found its plan to make a comeback as a hegemon fading, with key ally PAS appearing to be drifting towards Bersatu.

PAS has repeatedly spoken in favour of maintaining PN in the next general election while Umno wants its own BN coalition to be the main driving force.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi also appears to be losing total control of his MPs, with some including BN secretary-general Annuar Musa and Foreign Minister Hishamuddin Hussein becoming proponents of PN.

The fact that Muhyiddin has not been receptive in remedying the many graft charges against several Umno MPs that were filed under the previous Harapan government have also fuelled discontent within a certain section of the party. Zahid is among the leaders facing criminal charges.

Despite the pressure, Zahid is mindful that Muhyiddin has a fragile majority of 113 out of 222 MPs.

Playing kingmaker

Umno's hopes of returning as "king" may be fading, but a slight tug at Muhyiddin's government could see it play the role of kingmaker.

Amid this backdrop, enters PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

On Sept 23, Anwar claimed he had secured a majority in the Dewan Rakyat to replace Muhyiddin as prime minister and within hours, it was followed by a statement by Zahid confirming that "many" Umno MPs were supporting Anwar.

The sequence of events led to concerns among PKR's allies, particularly DAP, which was worried that Anwar might be cutting deals with Umno figures who are facing corruption charges.

Anwar has not revealed which MPs in Umno are supporting him. Yesterday morning, he finally met with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong and claimed to have the support of more than 120 MPs, but again, did not provide names.

On the same night, Umno revealed its hand.

It announced that the party was considering quitting the PN government and wants a new deal.

The wording of the statement kept with Umno's pattern of using diplomatic language with Bersatu, but it was effectively a threat to bring down Muhyiddin's government if he did not accede to Umno's demands.

Interestingly, the statement did not come from the Umno supreme council which comprises the full leadership line-up but instead its political bureau, suggesting that not everyone in Umno is on board.

The statement came just two days before Zahid is to meet the Yang di-Pertuan Agong and reveal whether his party MPs still support Muhyiddin as prime minister or another candidate.

Following Anwar's visit to the palace, the ruler had summoned several party leaders to verify his claim of support.

However, the palace today postponed all meetings between the political party leaders and the monarch as the country tightened restrictions against Covid-19 under the conditional movement control order (MCO) for two weeks.

The conditional MCO on Selangor, Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur, which covers the palace, is expected to be lifted on Oct 27.

While attention has revolved around Anwar's attempt to become prime minister and Muhyiddin's efforts to fend him off, in the next several weeks, the spotlight is on Umno which has revealed that it is still capable of pulling strings.- Mkini