Umno Is Not As Powerful As They Think

 

Umno needs to be more humble and less arrogant. Umno will not get support just because they demand it. Today, no one is strong enough to demand anything. If people work with you or support you, it will be because it is a win-win situation. Before anyone will work with Umno, they need to first show how that can be a win-win for the other party.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

With all this big talk about Umno going solo in the next general election or GE15, and about Umno engaging in 3-, 4- or 5-corner contests, maybe a reality check is in order. First, look at Umno’s performance in 14 general elections since Merdeka and the one general election two years before Merdeka.

Umno seats won in the 1955 General Election: 34 or 58.9%

1957 Merdeka

Umno seats won in the 1959 General Election: 52 or 50%

Umno seats won in the 1964 General Election: 59 or 56.73%

Umno seats won in the 1969 General Election: 52 or 36.11%

Umno seats won in the 1974 General Election: 62 or 40.26%

Umno seats won in the 1978 General Election: 70 or 40.45%

Umno seats won in the 1982 General Election: 70 or 45.45%

Umno seats won in the 1986 General Election: 83 or 46.89%

Umno seats won in the 1990 General Election: 71 or 39.44%

Umno seats won in the 1995 General Election: 89 or 46.35%

Umno seats won in the 1999 General Election: 72 or 37.31%

Umno seats won in the 2004 General Election: 109 or 49.77%

Umno seats won in the 2008 General Election: 79 or 35.59%

Umno seats won in the 2013 General Election: 88 or 39.64%

Umno seats won in the 2018 General Election: 54 or 24.32%

Okay, Umno never won more than 60% of the seats prior to 1969. In 1969, Umno practically got wiped out, forcing them to wind up Parti Perikatan and form Barisan Nasional, which eventually grew to 14 parties. If not, Umno would have lost the 1974 general election.

Since Barisan Nasional was formed, Umno has never won more than 50% of the seats like in the pre-May 13 days. In the last general election, Umno was reduced to just 24.32% of the seats, the worst ever performance in 66 years. Umno’s best performance was in 2004 when it won 109 seats. However, even then it was less than 50% of the seats.

So, the notion that Umno can contest GE15 solo and win enough seats to form the government in a 3-, 4-, or 5-corner contest is a fallacy. Umno would be in denial mode if they think they are powerful enough to win the next general election without an electoral pact or coalition with other parties.

The parties from Sabah and Sarawak will only want to work with the winner. If Umno is no longer seen as a winner, no party from Sabah and Sarawak will want to collaborate with Umno.

The days when Umno was seen as a head honcho or warlord are over. Today, Umno is seen as a beggar gasping for survival. If anyone works with Umno it would not be because they feel they need Umno to form the government. In fact, it is the other way around.

Umno needs to be more humble and less arrogant. Umno will not get support just because they demand it. Today, no one is strong enough to demand anything. If people work with you or support you, it will be because it is a win-win situation. Before anyone will work with Umno, they need to first show how that can be a win-win for the other party.